South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[FetchCB]

2 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

If the update about 30cm in Kent is true that will likely be a Red warning. The Kent end of the North Downs is a sweet spot for these streamer events, I was stuff in a snow drift on the M2 back in 1987, so I've experienced their full fury.  I expect plenty of snow for many but the Orange zone will be Coastal Suffolk and Essex, East side of London and north Kent and north side of the South Downs. Yellow in a line from Scarborough to Southampton. 

A hunch, not scientific. 

 

I suspect a red will be issued when they have a definite handle on where, Met Office have already signposted at the top of the impact and only one below the probability so once they have confidence on exactly where they will issue one. Remember there are civil Contingency plans enacted off the back of the warnings its not just for us weather watchers 

[Captain Shortwave]

Still raining here, temperature down to 4c now and the wind is picking up.

[Great Plum]

4 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

That certainly is a factor, but a dew point of, say, -1C while the air temperature is say, 4C, will probably not produce snow.  Both temperatures are equally important.

Noticed your location - brockham must look stunning in the snow! 

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Fair enough. But sick to death of hearing how well the South East will be doing when we’ll be getting FA!!!

I think its all about having realistic expectations and coming to peace with those expectations.

Will you be getting 20cms like some parts further east? Probably not unless you get very lucky with a streamer.

However equally whilst you may think its weak sauce compared to further east, I do think 1-3cms is very do able even without a streamer and once it is in its going to freeze up and probably hang around for several days.

EDIT - I've seen set-ups that I think were dead certs fail, I've equally seen other setups expected to give only a modest 2-4cms covering give 20cms+. Just have to wait and see.

Edited February 6, 2021 by kold weather

[3cats]

9 minutes ago, Great Plum said:

I notice that the amber warning is only about 10 miles east of here - I wonder what we will get in Reigate...

I’m hoping for a good sprinkling of snow tomorrow

[Always Upsidedown]

2 minutes ago, Joanne Swann said:

Thats what im waiting for well hoping anyway as not far from you

Sorry to say that our general neck of the woods will do well to get any more than a couple of cm by the end of Sunday. Looked quite promising for a while but it was clear from this morning that this was not going to be a major event for our area.

[Mal_UK]

4 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

I suspect a red will be issued when they have a definite handle on where, Met Office have already signposted at the top of the impact and only one below the probability so once they have confidence on exactly where they will issue one. Remember there are civil Contingency plans enacted off the back of the warnings its not just for us weather watchers 

I believe that red alerts will only be very localised, not blanket for a whole large region. 

As an example, 6" snow in a Kent village will cause far less disruption on a Sunday that 2" snow in the centre of London?

[Ols500]

1 minute ago, 3cats said:

I’m hoping for a good sprinkling of snow tomorrow

Same 3cms would be good

 

[Great Plum]

2 minutes ago, 3cats said:

I’m hoping for a good sprinkling of snow tomorrow

I’m hoping for a couple of inches at least...

[Dbarb]

So maldon and the surrounding areas could be on for a good show then

Edited February 6, 2021 by Dbarb

[Country Boy]

The gritters are going to have no chance, they can't put salt on wet roads.

Especially if it turns straight to snow.

Tipping it down here, but I have noticed the wind has picked up.

from the East.

 

[Hammer]

Just now, Dbarb said:

So maldon and the surrounding areas good be on for a good show then

Correct, could do very nicely there.

[Timmytour]

I'm in an area where I have to do the test for the South African variant so I decided to walk the mile or so to the drop off point for them this evening.  It's what I'd call persistent heavy drizzle and none too cold but every not and then a little blow of wind that seemed a bit colder

Is it my imagination or can you smell snow coming?  I  definitely got a few bouts of a smell that took me way back to snowy spells of my youth.  Maybe there's a chemical in the air, a bit like when rain hits dry roads. Or maybe its an easterly breeze blowing pollutants in from the continents and our coast line!  But that smell.....it's there.....it's coming!! 

 

[Great Plum]

3 minutes ago, Ols500 said:

Same 3cms would be good

 

Epsom normally does well out of this sort of set up

[tomp456]

I have come to terms with the dusting at best we'll get here, we've already had our once in a generation snowfall twice in the last 13 or so years. 

 

 

[LightningLover]

2 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I'm in an area where I have to do the test for the South African variant so I decided to walk the mile or so to the drop off point for them this evening.  It's what I'd call persistent heavy drizzle and none too cold but every not and then a little blow of wind that seemed a bit colder

Is it my imagination or can you smell snow coming?  I  definitely got a few bouts of a smell that took me way back to snowy spells of my youth.  Maybe there's a chemical in the air, a bit like when rain hits dry roads. Or maybe its an easterly breeze blowing pollutants in from the continents and our coast line!  But that smell.....it's there.....it's coming!! 

 

Yes!! I was walking today and had the same thoughts. Some of the gusts of wind smelled... distinctly Icy somehow lol

Edited February 6, 2021 by LightningLover

[danm]

17 minutes ago, john mac1 said:

Dutch radar has it much further north and west by lunchtime tomorrow. 

I know these are the BBC graphics and not to be taken too literally, but the latest forecast shows it over a wider area, including the London area right from the early hours through to late afternoon tomorrow:

Edited February 6, 2021 by danm

[tight isobar]

7 minutes ago, Always Upsidedown said:

Sorry to say that our general neck of the woods will do well to get any more than a couple of cm by the end of Sunday. Looked quite promising for a while but it was clear from this morning that this was not going to be a major event for our area.

Your aving a laugh I assume ??!. Your in prime locale for upgrades.. if that amber was any closer to your geographical.. it’ll bite ya.. I can fully see you in an extension of amber area once things liven up!!

Edited February 6, 2021 by tight isobar

[Hotspur62]

17 minutes ago, john mac1 said:

Dutch radar has it much further north and west by lunchtime tomorrow. 

Yes that’s what I thought running that through.Hope it’s right as it will give much more of SE Thread snow

[joespontiac]

Chicken and chorizo paella washed down with some dark fruits followed by cheesecake and a prayer for some westward movement and/or streamers that come far enough inland

[East Kent Snow Desert]

39 minutes ago, Juanmoorchants said:

Yes lived in Canterbury in the early 90s and the snowfall of Feb 1991 was exceptional. It settled quite quickly once it got going! Looking like East Kent up for some more decent snowfall from this favoured set up

Can confirm that as was working in wincheap at the time. Roads were a mess with no 'working from home' in those days . I reckon Canterbury is in the firing line again for tomorrow with a switch to Medway/ Maidstone areas by Monday

Edited February 6, 2021 by East Kent Snow Desert

[Essex Chelle]

19 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

The lower the better for both generally but dp needs to be below zero at very least. Temps can be a degree or so higher than zero but that would be wet snow. 

Thank you for replying. I'm refreshing my dew point page every 5 mins its dropping phew.

[Ols500]

5 minutes ago, Great Plum said:

Epsom normally does well out of this sort of set up

Does the downs take alot of the snow out of the showers if they are moving down from the n/e?

[Always Upsidedown]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Your aving a laugh I assum??!. Your in prime locale for upgrades.. if that amber was any closer to your geographical.. it’ll bite ya.. I can fully see you in an extension of amber area once things liven up!!

Unfortunately the weather never looks at apps on phones. Nor goes it view charts, it just does what it does and the trend is pretty clear for this area. Has been all day. We will get snow, just not very much. 

[bobbydog]

I can see the dreaded 'Horsham snow-shield' powering up tonight.

I have my snow rescue team at the ready, in case we get the same amounts as the 2018 'BFTE'....

Here they are in action in 2018, in the deepest snowdrift I could find in my garden...