South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[East Kent Snow Desert]

33 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Always the toughest part this, the agonising wait!

Following the countdown and ups n downs from ten days ago on the MOD thread has sometimes been quite agonising too!

[craigore]

Extension to the cold.

Check this bad boy cold pool..

S.E Feed. Bitter cold.. 

Heating bill is gonna be a big one this month..

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

BTW for those further inland in the SE as counter-intutitive as this sounds we probably want the main band further SE and the low further SE.

Why?

Because that will keep the winds ENE rather than NE during the whole event. Should that happen the bands will spread further west into the region. It won't have much effective for those further east as the streamers that would set-up in such a flow would make up for the loss of more sustained precip.

 

Yes it would but we'll see what happens, I think this ship has sailed though.

[Dami]

Got some rain.

No matter, I'm having a nice steak dinner

[DJ Fart]

Seems to have been downgraded over the course of the day for me up on the Essex Suffolk border. Was hoping for 4-5cm on the ground by 7am for my children to wake up to but now looks more of a dusting. Really hope I'm wrong. 

[North Easterly Breeze]

Bloody nora, just look at those next 10 day temperatures.

[Jayces]

2 hours ago, Oaks said:

Every time I look at the Met office app it keeps going from heavy snow to light snow 

Just came to post the same thing! I know the weather apps are useless (even the METO one) but I've watched all week as it's gone from one single snow flake at midnight to one at 6AM and one at 6 PM and then slowly over time a snowflake for every hour and then two for many morning hours. And then the last day or so the sleet and rain has crept in to the early hours and now just before it all kicks off all the heavy snow (5 hours worth) had been replaced with light snow. Despite knowing how useless the apps are it does seem unusually cruel to downgrade right at the end!

[mattneal]

1 minute ago, Dj fart said:

Seems to have been downgraded over the course of the day for me up on the Essex Suffolk border. Was hoping for 4-5cm on the ground by 7am for my children to wake up to but now looks more of a dusting. Really hope I'm wrong. 

Personally think you will be fine in colchester

[craigore]

17 minutes ago, Whether Idle said:

This is a scan through the 12z models so far available at the time of writing, with approximate snow depth shown for t48 midday Monday in Dover

Model           Depth in cms (nya  not yet available)

Arpege                  13

GFS.                       10

WRF MNM             15

Arome.                   14

ICON.                       6

Euro 4                     nya

mean.                     11.6

median                   13

So I will settle on 12cms on the deck by midday Monday IMBY. We shall see what happens soon

Hoping Thanet gets in on them totals too...

[East Kent Snow Desert]

22 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

This storm darcy just clipping the south east worry.. has anybody else seen it broadcast ! latest forecasts are still positive and I read that if anything there a trend north band west on some near term models this afternoon..

I wonder whether they were referring to the blizzard conditions from Holland extending to the UK within the system and not the system itself!

[Mr_Pessimistic]

Anyone got the latest ukv charts?  

[Marie]

Been dry most of day here , but now chucking it down with rain , still pretty mild here

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, East Kent Snow Desert said:

I wonder whether they were referring to the blizzard conditions from Holland extending to the UK within the system and not the system itself!

I think and hope so.

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Yes it would but we'll see what happens, I think this ship has sailed though.

Honestly I've learned with these LPs to never take anything for granted. The difference between it b eing even 25-35 miles further NW is the difference between the winds being NE and ENE for a fair chunk of the SE for an extra 6hrs.

Such a difference is neigh on impossible to nail down even at this stage.

Still quite a large range of options on the AROME 09z ensembles. Whilst that doesn't mean a whole lot at this point, it does go to show the range of options. For example one ensemble member has just 3-4cms in N.Kent by Monday afternoon. Another is upto 30cms!

The one thing that is a trend on the runs is for a fairly significant amount of showers to push through S.London and through Surrey. This was also on the Euro4 to an extent in the morning hours as well. Could drag soe decent snowfall into S.London and Surrey in the early hours, something to keep an eye on!

[snowrye]

Just having a quick flick through, has there been a downgrade for the south east

[bluearmy]

Just now, snowrye said:

Just having a quick flick through, has there been a downgrade for the south east

Only twelve hours to find out ! 

[runboy]

Wind picking up out there, a nice bite to it too. Stopped raining in South Norfolk and starting to dry up a bit. Now down to curtain twitching and lamp post watching! 

[Neilsouth]

1 minute ago, snowrye said:

Just having a quick flick through, has there been a downgrade for the south east

No, look at this :D

 

[Matty88]

Does anyone get the sense the models are potentially (and hopefully) undercooking the convective potential for tomorrow in particular? Some are all about the front, others are factoring some convection in elsewhere (North and West of the front). You do have to wonder... I’m not convinced this is a SE corner only event yet. 

[lassie23]

4 minutes ago, Marie said:

Been dry most of day here , but now chucking it down with rain , still pretty mild here

If it is still like that come tomorrow morning, ask for a refund.

[tight isobar]

8 minutes ago, East Kent Snow Desert said:

I wonder whether they were referring to the blizzard conditions from Holland extending to the UK within the system and not the system itself!

With predictive wind infer and squal lines..@blizzard conditions a certain thing.. scaling it down to geographical points is too early ..YET!!!

Edited February 6, 2021 by tight isobar

[snowrye]

Just now, Neilsouth said:

No, look at this

 

Splendidno, an all nighter on the cards then

[lawrenk]

Looking forward to a few drinks tonight to get “in the mood” for a late one. Nice bottle of red, with maybe a cheeky glass or two of scotch after. What are anyone elses plans?

[snowking]

Always fun we start to see showers forecast by the high res models and blowing well inland.

What should be even more exciting is that these are almost always underplayed by models.

[Marie]

Just now, lassie23 said:

If it is still like that come tomorrow morning, ask for a refund.

It better not be lol I will be beside myself