South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Can confirm that East wind has started, and there’s a distinct chill already, up in Naarfolk! 

[Flaked Queen]

Rain here in Uxbridge at the moment ...but from 1am maybe some snow  

[Bill4321]

I'm settled in for the all nighter now.

Beer

Food

Window

Weather station

Excitement

Expectation

Weather: Showery rain. Temperature: 6.6 and falling rapidly. Dew point 5.4.

 

 

[Matt H]

Good luck everyone. I hope that as many people as possible are able to see a decent amount of snow this week, especially those down in Kent that haven’t seen much so far this winter.

[Whether Idle]

This is a scan through the 12z models so far available at the time of writing, with approximate snow depth shown for t48 midday Monday in Dover

Model           Depth in cms (nya  not yet available)

Arpege                  13

GFS.                       10

WRF MNM             15

Arome.                   14

ICON.                       6

Euro 4                     nya

mean.                     11.6

median                   13

So I will settle on 12cms on the deck by midday Monday IMBY. We shall see what happens soon

[Riky91]

Good luck for everyone tomorrow. Probably here in Marlow (Bucks) will be a hit and miss. Let's hope for more events next week

[dallas]

Off to work soon, hope the trains get me home tomorrow morning 

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

7 minutes ago, bRi87 said:

Just signed up to this site after lurking for a long time.

Going by your username you may be a good one to ask about our chances here in Prestwood, Gt. Missenden, are we likely to see snow?

Hello. Yes. I'm just down road. But much lower ASL

I think we will see dustings tomorrow. But chances seems to be reducing. With it contained more easterly. Frustrating as last night it was showing a much further spread inland. There are always showers that will pop up.

Later in week looks like it has potential 

 

 

[john mac1]

Really don’t what to expect here. It’s going to be a long night of radar watching! 

[onepingonly]

Frustrating that what looked like some widespread snow is once again a marginal affair, particularly when it will be cold enough and has been raining constantly for months and has now decided to stop...just when it's cold enough

However, it does make things a little more exciting if something does show up, so every cloud (hopefully has snow).

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, Whether Idle said:

This is a scan through the 12z models so far available at the time of writing, with approximate snow depth shown for t48 midday Monday in Dover

Model           Depth in cms (nya  not yet available)

Arpege                  13

GFS.                       10

WRF MNM             15

Arome.                   14

ICON.                       6

Euro 4                     nya

mean.                     11.6

median                   13

So I will settle on 12cms on the deck by midday Monday IMBY. We shall see what happens soon

What up with the euro four, does it have a sleet fest or something?

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

5 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Rain here in Uxbridge at the moment ...but from 1am maybe some snow  

The Met Office have downgraded the forecast with only intermittent light snow during tomorrow probably not amounting to any covering with the wet weather beforehand!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Looks like the wishes of the South East have been granted

[kold weather]

Just looking through the 09z AROME ensembles/ They are just taking a little longer to switch the winds ENE and this delay allows a more classic Wash streamer to develop and send some good convection through western parts of the Home counties. There is also a clear convective line working through EA and out through W.Hampshire on quite a few of these ensembles.

Most switch winds more ENE around the Monday afternoon, but may not last long depending on the exact track of Tuesdays low.

It does have to be said though other models are not following ARPEGE/AROME on this and introduce ENE far earlier. For example ICON looks like it brings it through early Monday morning.

[Snow Gazer]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

This storm darcy just clipping the south east worry.. has anybody else seen it broadcast ! latest forecasts are still positive and I read that if anything there a trend north band west on some bear term models this afternoon..

I did hear the BBC forecast earlier mention this. It was at lunchtime and she was mentioning the systems tail end will clip the south east....she then went on to show the snow in exactly the same area as it has been showing for a while. The very next forecast she didn’t mention it clipping, so I am guessing she reconsidered her terminology I think she was trying to say that it was a large system, and it won’t all come here....that’s what I thought she meant anyway, but as I say, she didn’t say it half an hour later on the next forecast. Hope that makes sense not very good at explaining weather related things....love watching them though

[Boro_andy]

25 minutes ago, North Easterly Breeze said:

Next 12 hour timetable:

- Indian takeaway.

- Watch West Ham take another 3 points.

- Match of the day.

- Quick 2 hours lamppost watching.

- Wake up 7am, open curtains. 

Cry or smile - TBC.

 

Hopefully your second point is wrong. ️️

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Rain here in Uxbridge at the moment ...but from 1am maybe some snow  

Down to 4C now, up here, with a very nasty easterly wind... Never fear -- the cold is coming!

[Mike Storm]

Just changed the battery in my Davis vantage weather station..the thing is semi solar powered, but loses the info at night  just when you need It.  The unit  is on the chimney of a  two storey house so was quite some effort

[tight isobar]

44 minutes ago, Chiltern_Blizzard said:

HARMONIE does give a more westerly spread. This model did quite well on the event a few weeks back.

Fingers and toes crossed for those on west side

The HAR.. isn’t a bad low-middle precipitation mod... as for the ARPEGE.. it’s only good as a nowcast/imment mid... imo....

[TommyB]

1 minute ago, Snow Gazer said:

I did hear the BBC forecast earlier mention this. It was at lunchtime and she was mentioning the systems tail end will clip the south east....she then went on to show the snow in exactly the same area as it has been showing for a while. The very next forecast she didn’t mention it clipping, so I am guessing she reconsidered her terminology I think she was trying to say that it was a large system, and it won’t all come here....that’s what I thought she meant anyway, but as I say, she didn’t say it half an hour later on the next forecast. Hope that makes sense not very good at explaining weather related things....love watching them though

I saw this too, and she did say something like the storm clipping the southeast, but also said about blizzard conditions act and as you have said, the graphics were the same! don't think it's a worry (or so I keep telling myself...if it rains here again, I am moving!!!)

[Ben M]

4 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

What up with the euro four, does it have a sleet fest or something?

They say at the top of their post nya means not yet available (I didn't notice it at first either!) 

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, onepingonly said:

Frustrating that what looked like some widespread snow is once again a marginal affair, particularly when it will be cold enough and has been raining constantly for months and has now decided to stop...just when it's cold enough

However, it does make things a little more exciting if something does show up, so every cloud (hopefully has snow).

warmer air holds more moisture ............

colder patterns are less wet aswell ......

the leg bone’s connected to the thigh bone 

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

The HAR.. isn’t a bad low-middle precipitation mod... as for the ARPEGE.. it’s only good as a nowcast/imment mid... imo....

Yes. I like the HAR. Seemed to track the event 2 weeks back well. I'm feeling less and less positive. Some good snowfalls for those to the east. Id be suprised of anything in my location. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

The Met Office need to update the wording on their forecast -

Snowfall mainly for eastern areas sometimes heavy with the west becoming dry after initial rain/sleet.

The warning needs updating to “ice” instead of “snow” for our region. 
 

Sort it out BBC/MetO!!

[kold weather]

@Chiltern_Blizzard

For those further inland in the SE as counter-intutitive as this sounds we probably want the main band further SE and the low further SE.

Why?

Because that will keep the winds ENE rather than NE during the whole event. Should that happen the bands will spread further west into the region. It won't have much effective for those further east as the streamers that would set-up in such a flow would make up for the loss of more sustained precip.

Broadly, the snowiest runs further west at our westerly direction are the ones that don't have the LP as far NW.

Edited February 6, 2021 by kold weather