South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Bill4321]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Red warnings are usually fairly localised areas Paul. They wouldn’t cover a whole region with a red warning - part of the current amber area could go red tomorrow morning if some of the forecasts verify .....

I can’t see any reason why the yellow would go amber at the moment ....if anything the risks have been receding east a little from a shrinking envelope 

as ever, the advice for everyone is expect little and hope for loads ....then you simply can’t be disappointed. With this being a period rather than a snap, it’s also not an ‘all the eggs in one basket’ situation either ..... 

I always take the impact more seriously than the likelihood when it comes to snow.

I remember back in 2009 or 2010 that the METO gave a flash red warning for me when I was living in Southampton. It came through at about 4PM and said to expect heavy snow and disruption to transport. It was very likely and high impact.

At the time there was a small layer of snow and flakes in the wind. Within the next couple of hours the snow piled in and everything ground to a halt. Buses stopped, trains stopped and cars stopped. It was bedlam but to me it was brilliant. I spent ages pushing cars up a small hill and listening to their traction control trying to kick in. There were 4x4's thinking that they knew best and flying past, getting to the top, realising there was nowhere to go and sliding back down again. Buses didn't even try, they were being parked up and the drivers walking home. Then the police turned up and closed off the road meaning that no traffic could get through to the M27. It was chaos.

But despite all of the madness we only had about 6cm of snow. Yet it was enough to grind half a city to a halt. The other half fared no better. The red warning was totally justified as it affected thousands of people, the impact was high. Yet my mate just up the road in Petersfield had double the amount of snow and was only in a yellow "be aware" warning. Yeah it was snowy but the impact population wise was minimal, not even worth an amber.

I have no idea what point I am trying to make here. I'm just warming up to my all nighter.

T 7.6 D6.6 cloudy.

 

[snowrye]

2 minutes ago, danm said:

Why? The east of the region will still be under the snow even if there are small corrections north and west. This band of snow extends all the way out into the Low Countries and northern Germany. 

 

Just now, Ols500 said:

exatly lol its all good news! 

Im just worried about warm sector man lol

[Djdazzle]

8 minutes ago, snowrye said:

These north and west shifts can sod off lol

If you’re worried about less cold air, I don’t think it’ll be an issue.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

26 minutes ago, Amanzi said:

I am just around the corner from you near Bramley. I wonder if we will be too far sw? Met office app has changed so many time for me lol. Has no snow for me now apart from light stuff Sun night. 

We’re just up the road in Godalming, I have a feeling we will see something significant overnight and into the afternoon hours tomo

[Daniel*]

9 minutes ago, snowrye said:

These north and west shifts can sod off lol

It just means more join in which can only be a good thing expected places to do best remains unchanged.

[Snipper]

19 minutes ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

Potential!!! I like it!

In case we are bored with potential. Take your pick. 
 

[Ian Docwra]

35 minutes ago, Downpour said:

It that’s word potential.

Can they do their job and actually make a forecast?!

Can anyone?  Certainty is the factor that can only come during the event.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

[Kentspur]

2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Seems to reflect the updated Amber warning. There’s definitely a fault there with a snow hole over central London there’s no marginality so not sure what explains that.

Tbf a lot of precip charts I looked at his morning showed very little Central/SW London in stark contrast to surrounding areas, hope all areas get to see some obviously and im sure like you said streamers will occur over these areas too to an extent

[Ols500]

5 minutes ago, snowrye said:

 

Im just worried about warm sector man lol

ah fair but i swear the air is cold enough for snow even in the "milder" sector?

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

13 minutes ago, snowrye said:

These north and west shifts can sod off lol

I think it could be beneficial for central southern england if we saw proper westward corrections. Places like Newbury could then also see a few flakes too.

[Amanzi]

5 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

We’re just up the road in Godalming, I have a feeling we will see something significant overnight and into the afternoon hours tomo

Would be really great if we did! Keeping everything crossed everyone in the region gets some.

[Kentspur]

2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Does anyone know if the London Heat Island effect is playing a part in models showing a shadow of low snowfall to the south and west of the city?

If that’s the case - is there the possibility that this is overcooked, and due to the pandemic/lockdown there’s going to be less heat thereto disrupt the flow?

Pretty much the same effect that turned all the snow to rain and sleet end of January SE of London here when the band moved across London dumping snow there before turning to rain as it moved eastwards to here, but these are completely different setups 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Kentspur

[saintkip]

3 hours ago, Paul said:

 

 

Net weather forecast now gone from 10cm of snow to light rain overnight, that’s a shocker especially after seeing the other model move it west.

[Ian Docwra]

2 minutes ago, Ols500 said:

ah fair but i swear the air is cold enough for snow even in the "milder" sector?

As the air over SE England in the colder sector is forecast to be around 0C to -1C, how much warmer can it be in the milder area yet still produce snow?  Not much, I would suggest.

[alexisj9]

Well since the rain that came from the east temps are noticeably dropping, and a fog has developed.

[Mizzle]

1 hour ago, lottiekent said:

Rain has just nudged in from the east here in SE Kent and with it a small drop in temperature. So hard to believe it’ll snow tomorrow when it’s like this now!

 

I am smugly smiling to myself having read some posts on a local FB group page that said the cold and snow is never going to happen because the sun is out today

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, Mizzle said:

I am smugly smiling to myself having read some posts on a local FB group page that said the cold and snow is never going to happen because the sun is out today

What sun, I have fog, and it's getting thicker all the time.

[abovefreezing]

2 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

I am smugly smiling to myself having read some posts on a local FB group page that said the cold and snow is never going to happen because the sun is out today

Be less smug. It is never guaranteed. Could well still rain. Some charts show this already.

[LightningLover]

That one sleet symbol has been replaced by snow! Phew, hahaha. Honestly I don’t know what’s so enticing about these automated apps!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Probably gonna see some sleet briefly turn to snow before it clears leaving icy patches for the morning. Not expecting anything to be honest.

[Djdazzle]

10 minutes ago, Snipper said:

In case we are bored with potential. Take your pick. 
 

I hope “unrealised” is not the word we will be using!

[bluearmy]

watching the automated metro app change every  hour or two for tonight and the sleet hanging on for me until 2am now ....a couple, runs ago it was as early as 11 pm although the average has been between midnight and 1am 

clearly this is a fluid situation as opposed to a simple frontal incursion ....

 

[Ian Docwra]

3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Well since the rain that came from the east temps are noticeably dropping, and a fog has developed.

Interesting - the Met Office latest shows temperatures have been rising all day in Kent and are 'now' (1400) at 8C generally.

[tight isobar]

Taking the bog standard Arome as a guide westward movement certainly ramping up as are the vents..@blizzard conditions for some look highly likely.. more later as the flow begins its grip!!!! .. a couple of snapshots.. as there are far too many tbh... that have relentless wave after wave of shower activity...