South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Hellboy]

XC Weather, based on the 06Z GFS has me at 30CM by the end of Tuesday. 

Snow continuing Wednesday through Friday which I am ignoring for now. But if it was to play out as currently modelled I would be looking at 50CM by the end of Friday. 

Location: Medway, NW Kent. 

[sunnijim]

4 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Update : Winds now shifting into the east/north east 

Just been outside,and the shift into a Northeast breeze is notacable in the last half hour.

No change in temperature yet of course.7c.

[throwoff]

Amber warning for Monday too for Medway.

Might have a cheeky nap so I can be up all night 

[Paul Sherman]

Just now, lawrenk said:

Only the BBC I know but didn’t look to be any great risk of anything marginal and no mention of the dreaded “rain on coasts”!

Never going to get marginality with a true Scandinavia and Russian sourced Easterly. Watch those Dewpoints over the next 7 days they will be so continental and dry i doubt they will rise above 0c again until maybe next weekend and even then if the Scandi High strengthens as models are showing I would bet it might be even longer.

Just dont touch any light switches or you might get a spark lol

[Jamie M]

Shift in the wind noticeable here with temperature readings,

8.7c to 8.0c 

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Jamie M

[wellington boot]

Has the met downgraded their warnings? Or is it just a discrepancy between app and website. Because the website has no red warnings and I'm just outside the amber, but I saw screenshots of red warnings from the app earlier 

[Stabilo19]

Worth remembering this isn't a one day event. Some of us will inevitably wake up tomorrow to no snow.. but this cold isn't going anywhere fast. 6Z GFS has most of us below zero for 200+ hours. It'll be historic if (and a big IF) this comes off. 

There are more opportunities throughout the week - Snow in more of the same areas Monday, then a more easterly element Tuesday perhaps bringing in the Greater London region. Then potential widespread snowfall across the whole region Thursday. 

[Eagle Eye]

Just had a hail shower, after 1 minute my back garden was under more rain than snow in the last 2 years and I won't go outside becuase I'm not that good a swimmer. 

[Snipper]

6 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

If she says " POTENTIAL " one more bleeping time I'm gonna scream!

Potentially you could be right. 

[Great Plum]

Looks like my parentals in east Bergholt are going to do well out of that!

16 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Here's how Norwich based weather company Weatherquest sees the snowfall totals for East Anglia by the end of Sunday. So their chart is basically showing the frontal snowfall coming into the Region tonight and into Sunday and doesn't include any shower/streamer activity on Monday and Tuesday. They acknowledge the northern and western extent of the snowfall is uncertain. (Their chart does NOT mean London and the SE get no snow; it's just showing EA totals).

Source: Twitter @danholley_

 

 

[sunnijim]

The App from the met office is showing an interesting alteration for Thursday and Friday.

Gone are maximums of 5c on Thursday and 7c for Friday.

Replaced by 1c on Thursday and 2c on Friday!

[WeatherCandy]

4 minutes ago, Hellboy said:

XC Weather, based on the 06Z GFS has me at 30CM by the end of Tuesday. 

Snow continuing Wednesday through Friday which I am ignoring for now. But if it was to play out as currently modelled I would be looking at 50CM by the end of Friday. 

Location: Medway, NW Kent. 

Hello fellow Stroodie! Looking forward to the coming days

[Mr_Pessimistic]

Well the met app was showing 4hrs of heavy snow for Sunday this morning, then it changed to just 1hr heavy snow Sunday!   Now it shows 11hrs of heavy snow, plus 4hrs heavy on Monday too!   I'm ALMOST starting to believe I might get a couple of inches here in north Suffolk!

[Downpour]

13 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

All looks on track

Udated 15 minutes ago and mentions Snow might be further North and West for the Regions

BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and videos from the BBC Weather Centre.

 

A much better forecast for our region although she is hedging her bets with the p word. 
 

TBH I think Louise is a bit of a mild lover so maybe not keen on forecasting snow?

[spear]

Rain is hammering down here atm. Think I'll stay inside today. 

Met Orifice app has pushed the transition to snow back from midnight to 2am for here. Our lamposts go off around midnight so I'm hoping the flakes will be large enough to set the outside light off so I can see what's going on . 

Ps, I won't believe it's happening until I see it with my own eyes! 

 

[lewis028]

53 minutes ago, North Easterly Breeze said:

Match of the day tonight at 10.30pm followed by a couple of hours of lamppost watching, right? 

Yep, sounds good to me With a few beers, hoping to see West Ham go 4th again ⚒

[Hellboy]

2 minutes ago, WeatherCandy said:

Hello fellow Stroodie! Looking forward to the coming days

Hey! Looking forward to it too. 

Such a shame that COVID means I'll be working from home. This Time last year I'd be having time off!

[Biggin]

Matt Hugo said temps up north where he lives shouldve been 3-4 degrees actual was 1 degree.

 Wonder if the cool down is moving south quicker than expected

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, moogyboobles said:

There's a lot of starling activity here at the moment. Far more than usual. Got about 20 fighting over the bird food (mostly fat balls) in my tree right now. 
Preparing for the cold I expect. 

Notice that here too...fed the birds this morning at 8am and it's been relatively quiet this winter for some reason but not this morning...blue/great tits, chaffinches, robins, blackbirds were busily munching. We'll know if we get real cold for a period and that's when the fieldfares  start showing up!

All prepared and set all my thermometers in my Stevenson Screen and ready with the ruler.

[Lampostwatcher]

Met or BBC don't have a clue yet 

How far north or west the main band will go 

[Coopsy]

Just catching up on forecasts and models and it’s looking good folks. Even those in the west being bought into the action. Most in the SE will see good accumulation over the next 3 days. With another possible big snow maker still on the cards mid next week. 

Some spots in the amber have a potential memory maker. This kind of set up is what you dream of as a snow lover , not just a day to thaw event but days and days of snow. 

Just spotted the latest met office forecast and can understand them specifically mention north Kent and potential of a foot or more of snow as there’s a lot of NE winds forecasts til Wednesday - the potential is there for days of convective showers/streamer opportunities (and of course other areas where the wind changes direction)  There will be lots of surprises popping up I’m sure. 

How often can you go to bed with snow that’s been played in/walked on and wake up to a fresh cover....for a few days running? 

I hope everyone takes it in and enjoys it for what it is - even if the snow depths aren’t legendary there’s going to be settled snow for most. But for those lucky ones - potentially a top 5 event for some. 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Coopsy

[Long haul to mild]

Noticed this earlier; big difference in the lying snow amounts between the 18z and 03z UKV.

Accumulations on 03z in EA small and only near the Suffolk and Essex coast, whereas North Kent gets plastered. 

Rogue run or a trend? I suspect these charts aren’t necessarily to be relied on, hence the mention of experimental but that’s quite a big change.

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Long haul to mild

[Badgers01]

1 hour ago, Jayces said:

Pretty sure that's how it played out for the 2009 (or was it 2010) Thames Streamer, it had already been snowing heavily for a few hours with several CM of laying snow before they upgraded to red if I remember correctly.

Not sure where I am will do as well this time, that was a foot of lying snow which was just nuts but looking forward to hopefully getting a few centimetres from this.

For the red warning for the Feb 2009 event it was issued at least 6 hours ahead of any snow falling - issued around midday Sunday snow didn’t start falling until later that evening .

[WeatherCandy]

1 minute ago, Hellboy said:

Hey! Looking forward to it too. 

Such a shame that COVID means I'll be working from home. This Time last year I'd be having time off!

WFH too, but I reckon I'll get away with extended lunch breaks to sledge down the hill with kids!

[Always Upsidedown]

I will be interested to see how this snow depth chart would look if were to be updated right now. I suspect a significant downgrade. I hope not but certainly for my area near Stansted i cant help feeling that snow depths will be o more than 3-4cm by the end of Sunday.