South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[KDME]

Well, Rayleigh is in the Amber warning area but Chelmsford (where I work) is forecast to have a relatively dry spell tomorrow and Monday.

Just wonder what member's thoughts are?  Thanks 

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

I dont think some realise just how close we are now to a Red Alert, just 1 tick away on the Matrix now

Red Alerts tend to be Issued as the event is happening or things are so firmed up just before the event is started.

Some Instances of this over the years were the very first ever one in South Devon when it was apparant things were much worse than expected and loss of life was possible, or a few hours before the event like the Snow event in 2009.

I know its a Sunday and Lockdown but if Blizzard conditions are accompanying snow there really will not be any visibility on the roads and hence a danger to life if travelling.

Yellow Warnings now extended to Wednesday as well.

I know some will mock this post as over exagerating but we are very close to the top upgrade now, there is a big difference to 50cm of Snow on a Scottish Mountain and Blizzards in heavily populated areas with lots of road traffic. Hence why its hard to get a Red Alert on Scottish Mountains

 

I'm fully expecting it to go red. Some hazeds like power cuts, strong wind and snow have already been mentioned by radio weather. Think they expect snow to stick to power cables.

[Hammer]

I am hearing reports that the EU won't let the snow out of the Netherlands tonight because its not fair that the UK gets it. They are saying the snow is their snow and apparently its in the contract.

[hernebaylooby]

I actually feel like christmas eve

[Paul Sherman]

1 minute ago, Weather_Novice said:

Well, Rayleigh is in the Amber warning area but Chelmsford (where I work) is forecast to have a relatively dry spell tomorrow and Monday.

Just wonder what member's thoughts are?  Thanks 

Take no notice of that 

The Yellow Warning also mentions the chance of snow amounts upto 15cm so the snow wont just stop from Chelmsford to Rayleigh (10 miles up the A130) so Chelmsford has just a good a chance as Rayleigh from the first bout

Streamer Wise Rayleigh favoured over Chelmsford due to that small amount of Miles further south

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Planet Stow said:

Some sleet showing on MetOffice for us after a few hrs of heavy snow fall...

Surely not, we'll see but, only place I would expect sleet is on south coast if the low comes to close, then it should change back to snow later.

[maplesyrup]

Not looking great for London now according to the Metoffice app. What's gone wrong?

[TommyB]

1 minute ago, hernebaylooby said:

I actually feel like christmas eve

I feel even more excited than I was on Christmas eve this year!! ?❄

[Djdazzle]

47 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

The snow we had here in Surrey on 24 January fell onto frosty ground (-6C grass temp.), whereas this would fall onto wet, warm ground.  That makes a huge difference.  Freezing air above takes time to cool off ground that has been at 10C+ recently.

Wrong - once the ground temp hits zero, snow will start to settle readily, especially with any intensity.

It’s one of the most common misconceptions when people say “the ground is too wet for snow to settle.”

[Ian Docwra]

19 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

I suppose it depends on what you yourself percieve as warranting a Red Warning. If you think its ok to drive in total whiteout conditions with zero visibility and 40mph blizzard and not put a Red Warning out then you may have some super Lewis Hamilton driving skills, but most of the public in the SE of England will not have the skills to drive in those conditions and hence they warn for the danger to life.

Having driven in a Haboob south of Phoenix a few times I can tell you your heart skips a beat when the Visibility goes down to the edge of your bonnet whilst doing 60mph.

Lets just see what happens later before dismissing the notions of red warnings being dished out namby pamby

No, I wouldn't drive unless vital in a yellow warning and I wouldn't drive at all in an Amber warning.  A Red means I would simply continue not to drive at all.   I have always associated Reds with the immediate and unavoidable danger caused by destructive flooding leading to, for example, the need to evacuate.  Blocked roads and communities cut off are already covered by Amber.  That was my point.

[Vortex3929]

2 minutes ago, Hammer said:

I am hearing reports that the EU won't let the snow out of the Netherlands tonight because its not fair that the UK gets it. They are saying the snow is their snow and apparently its in the contract.

They block our storms in summer by putting a trump wall in the channel preventing them crossing so NER NER NER NER NER to them

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Snowfish2 said:

It can stay WHERE IT IS 

Agreed.

[Plough King]

7 minutes ago, Easily sled said:

Hmm, met office app (I know) now not showing anything for me tonight or tomorrow, just grey cloud. (TW13) that would be a massive disappointment given what has been reported in the last couple of days.  

We're down for an hour of light rain tomorrow afternoon. 

[pinball wizard]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Wrong - once the ground temp hits zero, snow will start to settle readily, especially with any intensity.

It’s one of the most common misconceptions when people say “the ground is too wet for snow to settle.”

Exactly, plus the strength of the wind and low dew point will enable rain to evaporate from pavements further enabling snow to settle.

Edited February 6, 2021 by pinball wizard

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Wrong - once the ground temp hits zero, snow will start to settle readily, especially with any intensity.

It’s one of the most common misconceptions when people say “the ground is too wet for snow to settle.”

I've seen American videos where the weather goes from 25c and sunny to -1c and snow and the snow settles pretty much right away.

I know you could argue the air is colder out there, but the fact remains, if it can settle on surface temperature that have been elevated that high within literally minutes, it won't have too much problem with a surface that is running at 4-6c!

[Weather Wonder]

9 minutes ago, Hammer said:

I am hearing reports that the EU won't let the snow out of the Netherlands tonight because its not fair that the UK gets it. They are saying the snow is their snow and apparently its in the contract.

 No problem, we just won’t let any Atlantic lows into the EU in return, unless of course they’re willing to pay a rainfall tariff and import duties

Edited February 6, 2021 by Weather Wonder

[LightningLover]

I know it’s only an automated app, but I genuinely cannot understand why met office shows a one-hour slot of light rain- after a few hours of heavy snow!! Very odd

Edited February 6, 2021 by LightningLover

[Mizzle]

18 minutes ago, Snowkim said:

Mixed messages for where I am in north Hampshire, hope we manage to get some snow to take my little one sledging! 

I'm just down the road in Fleet and am pretty sure we'll see something of the snow in the next few days: plenty of opportunities!

[Dr cat]

Chances here in Cambridge?

[TommyB]

27 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

I really don’t think it will be too much of an issue this time, with the offshore wind and better upper air profile! Everything crossed for us coastal dwellers  

I really hope so! Just popped out and its so mild, now 9.7! 

[North Easterly Breeze]

Valentine’s Day looks a bit chilly

[Ian Docwra]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

Wrong - once the ground temp hits zero, snow will start to settle readily, especially with any intensity.

It’s one of the most common misconceptions when people say “the ground is too wet for snow to settle.”

Yes - "once the ground temp. hits zero" - exactly my point.  It's warm at present (up to 10C) so may take some time to reach that point, rather than every single flake settling from the outset when the ground surface was at -6C as was the case on 24 January.  The fact is that the ground can be, and often is, too wet for settling - the key is how quickly it cools to the required point.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

10 minutes ago, Hammer said:

I am hearing reports that the EU won't let the snow out of the Netherlands tonight because its not fair that the UK gets it. They are saying the snow is their snow and apparently its in the contract.

Welcome to the Brexit sir!!! 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Does anyone know if the London Heat Island effect is playing a part in models showing a shadow of low snowfall to the south and west of the city?

If that’s the case - is there the possibility that this is overcooked, and due to the pandemic/lockdown there’s going to be less heat thereto disrupt the flow?

[Mark wheeler]

22 minutes ago, Ols500 said:

I think epsom is too far west of that heavier stuff 

I’ve been trying to work this out on all the maps . Epsom / Chessingon seems right on the edge but I can’t work it out completely.