South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[londonblizzard]

if london gets a red warning, do u think they'll invent a new black warning for essex?

[Paul]

11 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

This site IS NetWeather, though!  What does that say about 'us' and 'our' criticisms of other sites?

The model used on Netweather's local forecasts is very good - probably the leading hires model for the UK (the UKV), but it's never going to be 100% and when it comes to showers and especially snow showers then there's a whole lot of added complication. It's an interesting point you raise about the percentages we show though, it is purely based on whether the model sees precipitation at the moment, but perhaps we can add some nuance to that to allow a bit more for the difficulty in nailing shower locations etc.

But regardless, if model forecasts were perfect, there'd be no need for tools like radar etc and no need for human forecasters either! I think it's better to think of all the tools at your disposal as strings in your bow. Forecasts play their part, perhaps a look at the models if that's your thing to give a broader view, some radar watching, some observations watching and so on. 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Paul

[ajkwilson]

Just now, Hotspur62 said:

Well you are in the Amber zone.Heavy rain this evening will transition to snow around 1-2 am I would think and then steady snow for you for much of the day-would guess anything from 5-15cms for you by close of play
 

good luck and stay safe

Thank you . Stay safe to and everyone else ! 

[Number 23]

5 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

Thankfully the warning boundaries aren't to be taken literally; just a regional guide to areas which might have a higher impact. They could go into more detail making the boundaries more fuzzy and programme in things like elevation or urban density, but that would be a waste of time. 

Of course the further inside the warning area the more severe, but that's not to say an area 1 mile away from boundary won't see anything!

Oh yeah not like it's a clear dividing line, and to be honest I'd imagine there's a fair bit of hedging goes into these too. 

Personally I don't think the heaviest stuff will get as far inland as that anyway, just want to be under the Amber

Edited February 6, 2021 by Number 23

[lawrenk]

17 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I’m struggling to understand why the Met office and this warning chart don’t have the amber circle right over the coasts, there’s no marginality nearer the coast here once the cold uppers come in from the E/NE

Its strange, where I am in Brighton we often actually do quite well from these kinds of set ups and yet the met office always seem to underplay it.

Yes, it’s a bit strange that, I wonder whether it’s just a computer generated thing. I’m a bit further east and 10 miles inland and, frankly, if I can’t get snow from this type of set up it will be time to find a new hobby!

[masked_firefly]

Hi very long time in posting but back again I am...

Being just outside of Ipswich it looking like for me (and my very exicted 10 year old!) we are in the amber zone. 
 

my son is so exicted by the prospect he's made me get our snow shovel out from the deep depths of the shed incase he is needed to clear the road outside our house - bless him! 

[Ian Docwra]

19 minutes ago, Hammer said:

Yes with it set to get really cold the rain before really won't be a massive hindrance after a short transition.

The snow we had here in Surrey on 24 January fell onto frosty ground (-6C grass temp.), whereas this would fall onto wet, warm ground.  That makes a huge difference.  Freezing air above takes time to cool off ground that has been at 10C+ recently.

[Captain Shortwave]

Heavy rain here now, if only it was a little bit colder...

[Planet Stow]

42 minutes ago, E17boy said:

The sleet bit is a joke Stow yes. I really much hope so otherwise I am going to be really broken hearted . Where about are you? I am right near where the old police station used to be on Forest Road. I think we should be ok it's just the nerves kicking in before the event these last countdown hours before the event seem to feel like days. We are nearly there I just hope that amber warning is extended , but deep inside I feel we will do ok in Walthamstow but you always have that doubt till it happens Keep me updated

A couple of weeks back when we were suppose to have a couple of cm was a non event for me and Epping was the saviour for both myself and children's high hopes.

I am around the corner from Central Station although thinking of making my way up forest Road to the Doughnut in hope of better coverage and to use a new sledge!

[NewEra21]

If we think this week is going to be cold, just look at the potential for next weekend. Yes these are max temps!!  

Not to be taken seriously just yet, but the trend is emerging for even colder surface conditions making their way from Europe from next weekend!

Edited February 6, 2021 by NewEra21

[Biggin]

8 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

Well, severe snow appears to be limited to a narrow band of near-coastal EA and Kent, the rest to get flurries and a grey, not white ground, so the very cold weather shouldn't hamper 99% of the country.

I think you are wrong with your 99% of the country not hampered.

[saintkip]

Is the band of rain over northern England the same band which is going to come south and turn to snow in the early hours?

[kold weather]

11 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

Well, severe snow appears to be limited to a narrow band of near-coastal EA and Kent, the rest to get flurries and a grey, not white ground, so the very cold weather shouldn't hamper 99% of the country.

I'm not sure I'd go that far, I think there will be a covering around for a large chunk of the region, its just going to modest.

The bigger problem which alexisj19 already mentioned is any snow that is on the ground come Sunday is going to freeze and once frozen its going to compact it and basically stay settled in place till at least Thursday so ice will be a big problem througnout the week and probably enough to justify a yellow warning on its own right.

GFS again showing clear signs of streamers setting up and then morphing into a Thames streamer by Sunday night into Monday. This is quite the constant now on the models so we will need to keep a close eye on it as its the wildcard, no doubts about it.

PS - 06z GFS (and 00z GEM and possible 00z ECM) pretty much make a sub 3c month guaranteed, and it could well end up quite some way south of that if the HP area keeps regenerating nearby.

Edited February 6, 2021 by kold weather

[Biggin]

7 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

'Red' surely means a danger to life - is it REALLY likely to become that in the small area of EA and Kent affected by the heavier snow?  I can't see it.  The dangers of very heavy snow are totally different to those from rain (destructive flooding, etc).  'Amber' already covers the issues of being cut off, roads blocked, etc.  A 'red' snow warning must surely be things like roofs collapsing for there to be a danger to life.

Dont forget the extreme wind chill.

[Ian Docwra]

3 minutes ago, Paul said:

The model used on Netweather's local forecasts very good - probably the leading hires model for the UK (the UKV), but it's never going to be 100% and when it comes to showers and especially snow showers then there's a whole lot of added complication. It's an interesting point you raise about the percentages though, it is purely based on whether the model sees precipitation at the moment, but perhaps we can add some nuance to that to allow a bit more for the difficulty in nailing shower locations etc.

But regardless, if model forecasts were perfect, there'd be no need for tools like radar etc and no need for human forecasters either! I think it's better to think of all the tools at your disposal as strings in your bow. Forecasts play their part, perhaps a look at the models if that's your thing to give a broader view, some radar watching, some observations watching and so on. 

Thanks.  It just looks odd to go from, effectively, a certainty of snow to an impossibility, back to certainty and then impossible again.  The other extreme, of course, is BBC/Meteo which goes to into ridiculous details 17%, 18%, 15%, 20%, 23%, etc.

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

If we think this week is going to be cold, just look at the potential for next weekend. Yes these are max temps!!  

Not to be taken seriously just yet, but the trend is emerging for even colder surface conditions making their way from Europe from next weekend!

All down to snowfall that chart.

Its that cold because we get a snow event from the front that tries to come in but more or less fails to clear the hurdle.

I suspect should the GFS evolution happen the front will get stuck over the SW and never make it even close to this part of the country (maybe parts of Hampshire could get involved)

[pages]

1 minute ago, Ian Docwra said:

'Red' surely means a danger to life - is it REALLY likely to become that in the small area of EA and Kent affected by the heavier snow?  I can't see it.  The dangers of very heavy snow are totally different to those from rain (destructive flooding, etc).  'Amber' already covers the issues of being cut off, roads blocked, etc.  A 'red' snow warning must surely be things like roofs collapsing for there to be a danger to life.

MET office uses a matrix system. They see this event as the highest impact, but not red warning yet as haven't moved to defenietly go to happen as models still slightly differ.

I assume it meets the highest impact criteria as main roads may be impassible so people could get stuck in freezing conditions. I.e red warning area to do not travel.

I expect once the run the UKV at midnight they will update the warnings and  will be 2or3 small areas of red warnings within the current amber area. Probably south East Essex and north Kent narrow strip along east coast.

[Jayces]

11 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Id imagine once it starts to unfold, 

Pretty sure that's how it played out for the 2009 (or was it 2010) Thames Streamer, it had already been snowing heavily for a few hours with several CM of laying snow before they upgraded to red if I remember correctly.

Not sure where I am will do as well this time, that was a foot of lying snow which was just nuts but looking forward to hopefully getting a few centimetres from this.

[john mac1]

Hoping for an explosive Thames streamer Sunday night into Monday! Reckon that’s going to be the best chance for my location. 
hopefully enough tomorrow to take my daughter sledging before I go back to work on Monday

[Ian Docwra]

1 minute ago, Biggin said:

Dont forget the extreme wind chill.

Yes, but that's not dependent on the heaviness of the snow - the wind chill will be there even if bone dry.  People seem to be expecting/hoping for heavier snow to lead to a red warning in itself.

[Delka]

can’t help but think snowfall-wise that this is going to be a huge bust for my location! too far north on most of the models and forecast i've found. ice days and deep frost probably, but snow is what i’ve been looking for and i’d be gutted if out of such a great setup for england i only get a cm or two 

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

Really strange weather here this morning

Thick Fog rolling up the Estuary interspersed with heavy convective rain

Sounds like a boundary.

[john mac1]

Well, the radar watching will commence soon. No more looking at models for the next 24hrs. 

[saintkip]

6 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Is the band of rain over northern England the same band which is going to come south and turn to snow in the early hours?

Any experts? Kold?

[moogyboobles]

There's a lot of starling activity here at the moment. Far more than usual. Got about 20 fighting over the bird food (mostly fat balls) in my tree right now. 
Preparing for the cold I expect.