South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Zesyph]

Hey everyone just wanted to know if the rain beforehand will prevent snow from settling? 

[BLS]

Feels a little bit like spring here today and the rain hasn’t reached us yet, amazing how much it’s going to change in the next 24 hours !!

Still a lot of flooding here mainly in the fields and the giant puddle in the train station forecourt that’s been there for about 3 months at least!! So I suspect it will take a lot of heavy snow to cover them areas but as for roads, paths and gardens we could see a very good amount. I’d imagine we will be cut of from Maidstone as there is no way you will be able to get up and down Sutton valance hill and if they don’t grit the roads well enough or the rain beforehand washes it away we could be cut off from ashford as well. Time will tell but this could be memorable guys !!

[Vortex3929]

Just a small post that hopes everyone in our regional thread sees snow and enjoys whatever snow does fall. Be safe out there & wrap up snug! I look forward to seeing everyone's excitement and happiness in the posts and pictures that are bound to follow.

[Jamie M]

Just now, Zesyph said:

Hey everyone just wanted to know if the rain beforehand will prevent snow from settling? 

Snow will rapidly cool surfaces so there is no issue there if it's heavy enough.

[Weathizard]

I really hope this cold spell isn’t so severe that it hampers the vaccination roll out, it’s quite ironic really that we’ve had woeful winters for years and the one year I’d almost accepted it was for the greater good that there was no freeze, we look like we might get one  

[Hammer]

Just now, Zesyph said:

Hey everyone just wanted to know if the rain beforehand will prevent snow from settling? 

For a short time but it becomes cold and then if heavy snow it will lay. 

[lassie23]

When is storm bertie or whatever it's called, going to arrive

[snowblind]

1 hour ago, HammerJack said:

Amber warning updated!!

That slight shift west has taken it within 500 yards my front door! Sounds like it could get serious, 1 square away from a red warning on the matrix.

[Methuselah]

Just now, Hammer said:

For a short time but it becomes cold and then if heavy snow it will lay. 

As soon as the temperatures falls to freezing, wet ground will freeze, anyway...?

[Downpour]

13 minutes ago, E17boy said:

The sleet bit is a joke Stow yes. I really much hope so otherwise I am going to be really broken hearted . Where about are you? I am right near where the old police station used to be on Forest Road. I think we should be ok it's just the nerves kicking in before the event these last countdown hours before the event seem to feel like days. We are nearly there I just hope that amber warning is extended , but deep inside I feel we will do ok in Walthamstow but you always have that doubt till it happens Keep me updated

That will just be UHI effect. 
Get out into Epping Forest, even Chingford Plains will be colder. 

[E17boy]

Looks like if it's going to be a long night. Current timings indicating rain to start changing to snow between 11 and midnight but this could be out may be later or if we are really lucky before. 

[Mizzle]

1 hour ago, LightningLover said:

Must have slept a total of 3 hours last night!

I managed 1 and a 1/2 . Absolutely as described by others, like a kid at Christmas! 

 

[tomp456]

18 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

This is odd - NetWeather's snow risk for Coldharbour (Leith Hill, south of Dorking) shows a run of 95% snow risk tomorrow morning then a three hour period shows 0%, then 95% again for the next three hour period!  What would prompt them to show such a definitive 0% suddenly there out of nowhere - don't they handle numbers like, say, 30%?!  

If I were you I’d grab a bin and Chuck NW’s “will it” predictors right at the bottom of the grabbed bin. 
 

in my experience they’re useless, for example, I’ve had storms when the predictor said 0%.... 

 

I’m sure the snow predictor is in the same category  

[Memphis snow]

9 minutes ago, Hellboy said:

Hi all, 

Don't often post but now is a good a time as ever. Looking forward to tonight's snowfall and any possible streamers. 

Trying to remember our snowfall totals from the BFTE in 2018. I think it was around 30cm. @Memphis snow may recall. 

Obviously not as cold as 2018 so precip intensity not as great but hoping the frontal snowfall in addition to 3 days of possible streamers can get us in the 20-30CM range. 

Yes it was around 30cm although I have moved now to swanley so I’m a bit further west now!

[Eagle Eye]

Here's my extremely biased veiw of the events. 

We begin late tonight and Early morning as the system arrives it begins to stagnate as it cools down we see a transition into snow early morning. 

Mid morning and most of it is snow on land except for the moment some sleet showers on the southern coast. 

As I said in my post in the mad thread the system begins to stagnate, this creates by early afternoon with winds rising near blizzard conditions but the winds aren't strong enough just yet. 

Late afternoon at points blizzard conditions but if I remember it right it's 30mph winds and it's expected to just miss that for sustained winds. 

Last Sunday into Monday we see a big Thames Streamer set up which begins to bring quick heavier showers of snow. 

This begins to settle in on Monday morning and quickly we see lots of settling snow and the coasts begin to see more especially places like Dover than they get in the first wave with the precipitation not hitting their area early On Before Stagnating further north. 

In the Afternoon on Monday we see these become lighter and perhaps more settled and banded with less precipitation falling away with the splitting of the stagnating cold air system as it will do over time. 

Late Monday into Tuesday we see the odd occasional Snow Shower but they begin to become rarer although this becoming rarer could stall if the system splits later for another 12 hours. 

Xander

[Ols500]

Just now, tomp456 said:

If I were you I’d grab a bin and Chuck NW’s “will it” predictors right at the bottom of the grabbed bin. 
 

in my experience they’re useless, for example, I’ve had storms when the predictor said 0%.... 

 

I’m sure the snow predictor is in the same category  

Yeah they are pretty crap lol

[Neilsouth]

 

[claret047]

54 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Cheers Claret  (I assume your name is WHU related rather than the wine????)

I'm out towards Danbury, so a few miles east of you.

My name is football related, but it refers to Chelmsford City. I am a life long supporter and the Club's Safety Officer as well as their Covid Officer. We should have a match on Monday evening at home to Billericay Town, what are the chances weather wise of it going ahead?

Kind Regards

Dave

[Paul]

23 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

This is odd - NetWeather's snow risk for Coldharbour (Leith Hill, south of Dorking) shows a run of 95% snow risk tomorrow morning then a three hour period shows 0%, then 95% again for the next three hour period!  What would prompt them to show such a definitive 0% suddenly there out of nowhere - don't they handle numbers like, say, 30%?!  

It's from the UKV model, so if the model doesn't expect there to be any precipitation at the time, the forecast will show 0% risk of snow. In reality, if there were to be precipitation, then it would be back to 95%

The UKV is an excellent model (the main hi-res model the Met Office use), but like any other model, it'll never be bang on in showery setups. So, I'd definitely recommend using the forecast as a guide and then the radar in the shorter term to see what's going on. 

 

Weather Radar - Live UK Rainfall Radar | Netweather

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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Live weather radar for the UK including weather type to track whether rain, sleet or snow is falling. Updated every 5 minutes.

 

[snow raven]

3 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

Probably between midnight and 3am

If you were on XC Weather the temp and Dp would pretty much fall in line with each other so like

6c/5c

5c/4c

4c/3c

And so on looks like 1c per hour 

Thanks Paul.  I have everything crossed.   I don't think I could cope with another disappointment ?❄

[slater]

Update from Dan at WeatherQuest

[Hammer]

This radar view might be useful later.

Radar for Netherlands and England

[JulieLighteningFisher]

How exciting  hope we get some decent white stuff here! 

My day off work tomorow, bring it on! 

 

 

[Weathizard]

3 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

 

I’m struggling to understand why the Met office and this warning chart don’t have the amber circle right over the coasts, there’s no marginality nearer the coast here once the cold uppers come in from the E/NE

Its strange, where I am in Brighton we often actually do quite well from these kinds of set ups and yet the met office always seem to underplay it.

[londonblizzard]

Trying to remember a snow event in which waking up with a full covering of 10-15 cm feels just as likely as waking up with nothing at all...