South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[snow raven]

@Paul Sherman @kold weather A stupid question to ask, but when the transition from rain to snow starts happening overnight, will the dew points be low enough for it to start settling?  I would hate to wake up tomorrow morning to see it snowing, but not settling anywhere.

(If I'm not already jumping the gun for assuming the snow will make it as far West as Bexleyheath!)

[SHM040519]

We still look like we are going to get a pasting here in canterbury. Hopefully 5-10cm! That’s even before showers start! Fingers crossed. Good luck everyone! Just hope it doesn’t affect the vaccination too much! 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

AROME has lost it LOL

Unless the Arome shows all snow falling instead of actually settling snow.. But I highly doubt 10cm of snow will settle in the North Sea.. 

[sunnijim]

3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

AROME has lost it LOL

Unless the Arome shows all snow falling instead of actually settling snow.. But I highly doubt 10cm of snow will settle in the North Sea.. 

Perhaps their expecting the North sea to freeze lol.

 

[Uxbridge90]

Still seems to be some inconsistencies on how far West the line of snow will be tonight/tomorrow. Some have it as far West as Oxford/Reading whilst others have it as a non event for most outside of EA, Kent etc.

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Uxbridge90

[kate1]

30 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Great overnight update from the met office for our region. Snow, snow and more snow from tonight until Tuesday. Wednesday dry but still freezing. Looks like the further east you are the better. But couldn't ask for a better update really.

I think I counted 14 heavy snow symbols for my town in the 36 hours from midnight! - haven't seen that for years. 

[Jamie M]

6 minutes ago, Surrey said:

AROME has lost it LOL

Unless the Arome shows all snow falling instead of actually settling snow.. But I highly doubt 10cm of snow will settle in the North Sea.. 

Really has

[NO LONGER POSTING]

4 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Perhaps their expecting the North sea to freeze lol.

 

Never really seen it before.. its not doing it in relation to any streamers or showers further north

 

1 minute ago, Jamie M said:

Really has

Edited February 6, 2021 by Surrey

[Jamie M]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

Never really seen it before.. its not doing it in relation to any streamers or showers further north

 

AROME is usually good with his snow accumulation at least for me in the marginal events I've had so this really is odd. 

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Uxbridge90 said:

Still seems to be some inconsistencies on how far West the line of snow will be tonight/tomorrow. Some have it as far West as Oxford/Reading whilst others have it as a non event for most outside of EA, Kent etc 

 

Going to be a nowcast situation out of west I think, there are plenty of different solutions.

On balance I'd say little if any snow on Sunday now is increasingly the case outside of eastern parts of the region, perhaps with E.Surrey, maybe far eastern parts of W.Sussex, E.Sussex and S.London thrown into the mix on Sunday daytime as well.

Monday looks better wind direction further west providing the instability remains present and IMO good chance a Thames streamer kicks in overnight on Sunday into Monday but as per normal, thats an uncertain as it always is.

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by kold weather

[Radiating Dendrite]

Meto app shows me down for 2.5 days of continuous snow! lol. 

I do expect some near time upgrades though. The flow seems to be modelled colder and streamers are being strongly picked up on the models. 

I think this could be the snowiest week for the SE since 2010.

[Blessed Weather]

A look at the cumulative snowfall forecasts up to midnight Sunday from the 0z high res models. Note these charts represent falling snow rather than lying depth of snow, but assuming sub-zero temps an indication of what could settle. First Arome, Euro4 and ICON, all looking similar:

As others have mentioned, some models such as Arpege aren't so good for snowfall extent, keeping the main area of snow further east. Finally, here's the GFS take on snow depth by midnight:

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Well the EURO4 00Z out and its still peachy in fact.. brings forward the transition in some places and brings more people in the Western edges into the game

Still very much in line with Met office warnings

 

   

   

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

2 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

A look at the cumulative snowfall forecasts up to midnight Sunday from the 0z high res models. Note these charts represent falling snow rather than lying depth of snow, but assuming sub-zero temps an indication of what could settle. First Arome, Euro4 and ICON, all looking similar:

As others have mentioned, some models such as Arpege aren't so good for snowfall extent, keeping the main area of snow further east. Finally, here's the GFS take on snow depth by midnight:

If you took the GFS snow depths and bumped them 15-25 miles South I think that would be more on point... Although the NNM actually agrees with a more northly idea.. 

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Surrey

[Blazerblue]

Absolutely chucking it down, horrid morning. 

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Blazerblue said:

Absolutely chucking it down, horrid morning. 

Yes, but think about what’s to come!

[Paul Sherman]

22 minutes ago, snow raven said:

@Paul Sherman @kold weather A stupid question to ask, but when the transition from rain to snow starts happening overnight, will the dew points be low enough for it to start settling?  I would hate to wake up tomorrow morning to see it snowing, but not settling anywhere.

(If I'm not already jumping the gun for assuming the snow will make it as far West as Bexleyheath!)

Probably between midnight and 3am

If you were on XC Weather the temp and Dp would pretty much fall in line with each other so like

6c/5c

5c/4c

4c/3c

And so on looks like 1c per hour 

[Blessed Weather]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

If you took the GFS snow depths and bumped them 15-25 miles South I think that would be more on point... Although the NNM actually agrees with a more northly idea.. 

 

Yes, agree with you there Surrey. The GFS totals out of sync with where the other models suggest snow will fall. But I suspect plenty of surprises over the Sun to Tues period and we'll soon be into lamp post watching. I can't wait as I'm lucky enough to be in the sweet spot according to forecasts.

[nanu]

'Beast from the East Two' to bring snow, ice and floods

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

The cold snap will not be as extreme as in 2018, forecasters say, but will cause disruption this weekend.

Amazing as soon as london and south east are mentioned for snow it makes the main headlines on bbc.

How long has it been snowing up north now?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

2 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Yes, agree with you there Surrey. The GFS totals out of sync with where the other models suggest snow will fall. But I suspect plenty of surprises over the Sun to Tues period and we'll soon be into lamp post watching. I can't wait as I'm lucky enough to be in the sweet spot according to forecasts.

Oh indeed.. I think there maybe a few "well that isn't on the high res models" posts over the next few days.. 

Suprises almost certain.. 

 

[Duane S.]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Tuesday/Wednesday for the sw may hold interest also going by that.

I’ve refrained from getting too excited about this, but it’s been showing for a few days now and is still very much there.

It certainly has all the ingredients to get us in the snow-starved tropical south coast in on the action .

I’ll probably hold off a little longer, I’m still smarting from that massive dumping in March’13 which was transferred to the Channel Islands at the last minute!

(whisper it quietly though, it’s looking pretty good )

[Laurence Hill]

11 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Well the EURO4 00Z out and its still peachy in fact.. brings forward the transition in some places and brings more people in the Western edges into the game

Still very much in line with Met office warnings

 

   

   

 

Looking forward to your updates through this period, much appreciated.

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Well the EURO4 00Z out and its still peachy in fact.. brings forward the transition in some places and brings more people in the Western edges into the game

Still very much in line with Met office warnings

 

   

 

 

You can see that banding showers even on the Euro4 charts there, with the band arcing further west over Sunday afternoon and into the evening as the upstream airflow turns more ENE. Behind that front band there will be an increasing chance of a Thames streamer setting up.

That band is shown on most models for late Sunday, even the GFS has clearly got that western band.

Once east of that band we will be into the true ENE airflow and thats when things may get more interesting for more of the region.

Still could be very patchy falls of snow though it has to be said, especially if your east of where the band forms but too far west for the majority of the showers to pack much punch. Somewhere will be in that zone. Euro4 has that zone just to my east. 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Best of luck to everyone in more eastern parts of the region, it looks really good for all of you. Not sure whether I will see much (maybe some wet snow tonight as the fronts move through).

The depth of cold looks to be really notable for all of us, if the ECM verified I would suspect there would be widespread sub -10c minima (potentially -15c or even lower in favoured locations) thanks to winds falling light and more south easterly. Consecutive ice days are possible too.

[BLS]

24 hours and hopefully I will be watching the cricket and the snow ..... Although beautiful morning at the moment just waiting for this rain to push in !