South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Ols500]

does anyone know how much snow is needed for the trains to stop?

[XLNC]

2 minutes ago, Ols500 said:

does anyone know how much snow is needed for the trains to stop?

When I worked for the Railways it was 30cm and above after that you require a plough.

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Ols500 said:

does anyone know how much snow is needed for the trains to stop?

Really depends on the type of snow that falls, and staffing, etc as well as probably the track route.

For example, heading eastwards on Sunday is going to be a no go I suspect. Going westwards will probably be ok.

[throwoff]

18 minutes ago, XLNC said:

Snow depth for Sunday, start to look more interesting further west from London.

The pub run certainly seems to be bullish about going further west. Fascinating to see what the 00 does later

[Ols500]

2 minutes ago, XLNC said:

When I worked for the Railways it was 30cm and above after that you require a plough.

thanks!

[throwoff]

Just now, kold weather said:

Really depends on the type of snow that falls, and staffing, etc as well as probably the track route.

For example, heading eastwards on Sunday is going to be a no go I suspect. Going westwards will probably be ok.

Bear in mind the trains are probably running on limited staff anyway due to C19. Won’t take a lot to slow things right down. 
 

I have a close contact in the upper Levels of network rail, I can’t wait to see what they have to say tomorrow afternoon.

 

[Vesuvius]

3 minutes ago, Ols500 said:

does anyone know how much snow is needed for the trains to stop?

One flake on my line. Seriously though many go into their winter planning schedule at the first sign of snow. 

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, throwoff said:

Bear in mind the trains are probably running on limited staff anyway due to C19. Won’t take a lot to slow things right down. 
I have a close contact in the upper Levels of network rail, I can’t wait to see what they have to say tomorrow afternoon.

Yeah I can imagine thats the case.

I think going westwards/SW will be ok because I really don't expect all that much snowfall, certainly not the kind that is going to stop trains from running. I think further east and possibly E.London as well maybe a different story though, they are going to cop a decent amount.

EG, I can't imagine the Fenchurch -Southend line running at all by Sunday afternoon.

[Sno' problem]

32 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Can we have a booby prize for the least, I may well be in with a shout on that award (though I may face stiff competition from those in the NW part of the region to be fair!

My location is generally the worst place in our region (if not the whole country bar the Scilly Isles) so a lowest depth championship for the wooden spoon is probably my best chance! 

Good luck to all out there and stay safe

Edited February 6, 2021 by Sno' problem

[Vesuvius]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah I can imagine thats the case.

I think going westwards/SW will be ok because I really don't expect all that much snowfall, certainly not the kind that is going to stop trains from running. I think further east and possibly E.London as well maybe a different story though, they are going to cop a decent amount.

EG, I can't imagine the Fenchurch -Southend line running at all by Sunday afternoon.

Agree, even more so the Liverpool St to Southend line, if drifting comes into play. Twice I’ve been thrown out near shenfield trying to get home over the years. 

[John Stevens]

Goodnight and good luck with the snow from late tomorrow and into Sunday and next week!  

The Euro4 is spot on... unfortunately I cannot get the images at the moment to attach Steve says

 Steve Murr is thinking of you all on here, especially

@TomSE12  

 

Au revoir!!

 

 John
 

Edit: got the image

Edited February 6, 2021 by John Stevens

[kold weather]

@Sno' problem - yeah, though I think this maybe one time where being in London won't be a determent to your chances, and very broadly the further east you are the better you should do as showers will be stronger the further east you go.

Anyway just had a look at the 18z ARPEGE ensembles, still some considerable uncertainties regarding Saturday night it has to be said, there are some that give literally nothing west of central London. Others give a solid 10-15cms for the whole region. So still options on the table.

More than a few hints from quite a few of them of streamers setting up though that again is going to hard to say. Just a few are now bringing in a LP into the far south, but this is probably only 15-20% at the moment bringing anything in. Most that get close just kill off the streamers due to turning the wind too far SE.

[danm]

15 minutes ago, Sno' problem said:

My location is generally the worst place in our region (if not the whole country bar the Scilly Isles) so a lowest depth championship for the la wooden spoon is probably my best chance!

Yep it’s crazy how just a few miles within Greater London can make all the difference with laying snow. Countless occasions over the years when I’ve travelled to work on the Tube from zone 5 into town and there’s been little to no snow on the ground, but back home in the suburbs there’s plenty. 

What brought home just how cold the 2018 BFTE was getting into work in Covent Garden and seeing plenty of snow on pavements, cars and on the roads - rare for the very centre of London.

Edited February 6, 2021 by danm

[Sno' problem]

It's a rare event to have snow laying for more than a day in central London, but there is nothing more beautiful than the hush in the streets when there is heavy snow falling, especially in the middle of the night when it's you and the foxes on the streets. Can't wait to go for a late night totter if/when the snow hits properly!

[Thunderstruck]

Must say I’m really getting excited about what the next few days might have to offer

Which knowing my luck means it will go catastrophically wrong and we’ll get a week of rain...

[Downpour]

4 minutes ago, danm said:

Yep it’s crazy how just a few miles within Greater London can make all the difference with laying snow. Countless occasions over the years when I’ve travelled to work on the Tube from zone 5 into town and there’s been little to snow on the ground, but back home in the suburbs there’s plenty. 

What brought home just how cold the 2018 BFTE was getting into work in Covent Garden and seeing plenty of snow on pavements, cars and on the roads - rare for the very centre of London.

Yes that was quite an event, 2 Feb 09 was another one where central London got smashed. Think there was one in 2005 too?

[danm]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

@Sno' problem - yeah, though I think this maybe one time where being in London won't be a determent to your chances, and very broadly the further east you are the better you should do as showers will be stronger the further east you go.

Anyway just had a look at the 18z ARPEGE ensembles, still some considerable uncertainties regarding Saturday night it has to be said, there are some that give literally nothing west of central London. Others give a solid 10-15cms for the whole region. So still options on the table.

More than a few hints from quite a few of them of streamers setting up though that again is going to hard to say. Just a few are now bringing in a LP into the far south, but this is probably only 15-20% at the moment bringing anything in. Most that get close just kill off the streamers due to turning the wind too far SE.

Yep I’m feeling cautiously optimistic here in NE London. I’m just on the border with SW Essex. I won’t get as much as places to the east of London on Sunday, but could be in a good spot to get a decent amount. Then if streamers kick off, as long as there is an E/ENE element to it rather the NE/NNE then we’re in a decent position. 

Here’s a rough sketch showing my location and where the yellow and amber areas are:

[danm]

3 minutes ago, Downpour said:

Yes that was quite an event, 2 Feb 09 was another one where central London got smashed. Think there was one in 2005 too?

December 2010, Feb 09, 8th Jan 2003 all had good amounts of laying snow for a day or two in central London. Going further back Feb 91 and Jan 87 due to the depth of cold, and possibly one of the mid 90s events. It never lasts long though, whereas a few miles out in the suburbs it can last for a few more days. 

Edited February 6, 2021 by danm

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, danm said:

Yep I’m feeling cautiously optimistic here in NE London. I’m just on the border with SW Essex. I won’t get as much as places to the east of London on Sunday, but could be in a good spot to get a decent amount. Then if streamers kick off, as long as there is an E/ENE element to it rather the NE/NNE then we’re in a decent position. 

Here’s a rough sketch showing my location and where the yellow and amber areas are:

Yeah I'd say you'll probably end uo getting a fairly decent amount over time, though of course the streamers are the wildcard here.

For my location the range of outcomes is literally anything from 0cms to 30cms+ depending on streamers, Saturday night and if anything crops up from the south on either Tuesday or later in the week. For example Feb 09 gave Alice Holt (about 5 miles NW of here) 23cms. Hopefully we can get a streamer of that magnitude, though I'm not convinced we will get that sort of one though.

At least you have got some certainty that Sunday will give the goods, regardless of what happens next week.

[Arrows1986]

Do we think the this spell will warrant red warnings for the east...

[london-snow]

13 minutes ago, Sno' problem said:

It's a rare event to have snow laying for more than a day in central London, but there is nothing more beautiful than the hush in the streets when there is heavy snow falling, especially in the middle of the night when it's you and the foxes on the streets. Can't wait to go for a late night totter if/when the snow hits properly!

I am quietly confident of seeing 5cms+ from Sunday’s offerings, shower bands & potential streamers excluded.

[Icebox]

34 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Wow the thread is busy not seen it like this in a very long time you can feel the excitement in air what’s wonderful the areas which are set to benefit most, have seen sod all (except North Downs) so that’s wonderful.  

Sweet spot for me N/NW Kent by Monday lunchtime with also streamers following, some places could have seen more than a foot of snow (30cm), imo potential for this to be snowier than 2018 in places. 

Except right down here on the West Sussex coast... sweet fa down here so far this winter. In fact the last white stuff was a slight dusting in 2018. The Eastward move if the models have it correct will cost us down here, so I'm hoping they have it wrong.

I knew I shouldn't of got my hopes up but I never learn... good luck and enjoy peeps that see loads and don't forget to post loads of snowy pics

[essexweather]

Just posted by the Met on their site. Been a while since there has been such a snowy short range forecast 

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by essexweather

[BLS]

Kent could get a lot Sunday maybe 10cm and then hopefully some streamers after Monday and Tuesday. Light snow turning heavy in the afternoon for me as the massive bloop of snow looks to stay a while so I’m hoping for 5-10cm then hopefully streamers AFTER Sunday which would be very nice, it won’t be showers on Sunday for most in the east I’d imagine it will be rather constant even if it’s just light 

[zubzero]

6 minutes ago, Arrows1986 said:

Do we think the this spell will warrant red warnings for the east...

Depends, the warning matrix on the amber supports the chance of a red. It all depends where the highest totals occur. A foot of snow on the north downs or an isolated costal strip will cause much less chaos, then say a foot of snow in Ipswich.