South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

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Just now, Timmytour said:

Mention of 20 foot drifts in this report and the spell had only just got going 

 

1987 winter

20 feet is believable. 30 ft (thick end of 10m!!) isn't.....

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2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Red warning? 

Say it aint so...

extension of amber + a red is the speculation 

[Ian Docwra]

2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Red warning? 

Say it aint so...

I thought red warnings are only issued when there is immediate danger to life, not 36-48 hours before the event.

[Mr Brown]

I don’t think it would be a red warning if he is crying laughing...

[Southender]

4 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Red warning? 

Say it aint so...

I’d be surprised if it went red tonight. Tomorrow I could understand. 

Perhaps an extension of the amber zone.

Or completely nothing related

[Mark wheeler]

17 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

And I can absolutely back Paul up with this. I was living in Southend at the time and we had close to 2 level feet of snow. The easterly was blowing for 5-6 days solid and the drifting was just insane, particularly around hedgerows at the edge of fields. The number 1 event for me by a country mile 

Yep my fathers favourite winter story . He is a plumber and it was the busiest time ever once the thaw set in that year . 

[Laurence Hill]

4 minutes ago, Surrey said:

That euro 4 shows nearly 20cm of snow out east 

5-10cm of snow across London and into Richmond Twickenham etc and even out to bracknell Reading.. 

If its what the met are going off and ignoring the other high res models then I would expect them to be looking at it very carefully.. 

Must note Euro4 most westerly solution this evening so far 

Evening Surrey, is this for Sunday?

[TomLO04]

Looking forward to darting around Knole park with a sledge in one hand and a go pro in the other. As usual, snow shield may be in force here but not far at all to gain some elevation in the north downs. As a runner it could be interesting to say the least these next few days. Although, having said that I have only gone running once in the snow.. January just gone and on trails.

[WheresTheSnow]

So what would we say the probability of this shifting further west in the following runs over the next 24 hours?

[Mark wheeler]

10 minutes ago, Surrey said:

EURO4 12z 

Picking up on the Thames aiding in PPN rates as well some big totals even inland 

Yep it was my 1st thought when I saw the charts .

[john mac1]

10 minutes ago, Southender said:

I saw that! 

[Me & angel fiance]

19 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

And I can absolutely back Paul up with this. I was living in Southend at the time and we had close to 2 level feet of snow. The easterly was blowing for 5-6 days solid and the drifting was just insane, particularly around hedgerows at the edge of fields. The number 1 event for me by a country mile 

Yes I ok was living in southend at the time and can vouch for the amount 

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

I thought red warnings are only issued when there is immediate danger to life, not 36-48 hours before the event.

Usually yes, though they will do it in advance if the models show enough of a justification. I think they issued a red ahead of storm Emma due to model convergence.

I definately think a red warning is possible simple due to the length of time those snow showers are going to be packing in to core areas. I'd imagine there are some talks about that happening right now in light of nearly all the 12z giving significant snowfalls to areas in the amber zone.

Maybe enough to justify an extension of amber warning towards London as well which would be news worthy as well.

[throwoff]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Usually yes, though they will do it in advance if the models show enough of a justification. I think they issued a red ahead of storm Emma due to model convergence.

I definately think a red warning is possible simple due to the length of time those snow showers are going to be packing in to core areas. I'd imagine there are some talks about that happening right now in light of nearly all the 12z giving significant snowfalls to areas in the amber zone.

Maybe enough to justify an extension of amber warning towards London as well which would be news worthy as well.

I’m thinking extend the Amber out to Tuesday personally 

[Dr cat]

5 minutes ago, WheresTheSnow said:

So what would we say the probability of this shifting further west in the following runs over the next 24 hours?

Very low I would have thought

[londonblizzard]

Hows it looking with the set of 12z models for sunday preciptation over london?

[kold weather]

12z AROME already upto 10-15cms by 13z on Sunday and plenty more showers packing in.

30-40cms locally down in N.Kent if that sort of rate keeps up for a long period of time.

once winds shift ENE again late Monday that area will shift upstream to give usual Thames streamer locations a decent amount of snow though too early to know how strong any streamer will be at this point, especially given there will be frontal cloud perhaps coming nearby on Tuesday from the SW.

[Youcan'tbecirrus]

1 hour ago, Lord Grogon said:

Oh to be living in Germany now. No worries about being on the edge of the snow band there....

On a stiff beasterly I was hoping all that was coming our way.

[clark3r]

Don’t think I will be sleeping tomorrow night lol waiting for my first flake of snow since 2019

[Snipper]

20 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Mention of 20 foot drifts in this report and the spell had only just got going 

 

1987 winter

Severe Winters

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

The list below may look like something that would happen in the Arctic, but all of them happened in the UK during two particularly severe winters - in 1947 and 1963.

 

[LightningLover]

2 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Don’t think I will be sleeping tomorrow night lol waiting for my first flake of snow since 2019

Yep, all nighter for me!

[Spikey M]

Why do I feel like we're still just going to England up with cold rain in South East Essex?

[Youcan'tbecirrus]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

SE Essex out near Foulness - The East wind was so strong they had to plough through to villages cut off for 5 days and made a dome over the roads - Have some pictures somewhere 

48cm of level snow in some spots

Best snowfall in my lifetime. 50+cm in some places here and a guy I know who lives in Great Wakering had a 12 foot drift up the side of his house. Some really impressive icicles as well.   

[Southender]

UKV 18:00 Sunday

[Dbarb]

What are the wind speeds going to be when compared to 2018? Is there more drift potential this time?