South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Biensie]

After this mornings excitement and finally believing this is going to happen, am I the only one now terrified of popping back in here for an update? Especially as the evening goes on.... maybe it’s better to stay with the high of this morning and keep out before pessimism starts dampening my excitement.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Biensie

[Froze were the Days]

8 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Underwhelming set of 12z's so far the rollercoaster ride in full effect.

Sarcasm?...or serious?, looks okay by the chart you posted/

[lawrenk]

1 minute ago, LightningLover said:

Very much liking the look of this!

Yes, though the apps do tend to fluctuate all over the shop. Currently I’m down for 30 hours of snow from early Sunday morning, including some heavier stuff but who knows?

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Just as an aside the front that pumps the precip into the Uk has its origins in Eastern Poland through Germany and the Low Countires which is madness. Some of my Storm Chasing Buddies in Holland are expected to get 30-40cm of snow from this as well. Going to be some stupidly low dewpoints by wednesday with some -10c to -15c readings meaning super dry continental air being imported into the Uk.

Expect to see Rime Ice and freezing fog by midweek as well so get those cameras charged peeps

Regardless of what happens on Saturday night and into Sunday, the air is easily cold enough for snow and the lower levels are real cold in the atmosphere, as I said last night the maxes at the surface will be more reflective of 850hpa closer to -15c, -1/2c without snow, maybe as low as -4c with snowcover nearby for maxes come Tuesday-Wednesday (away from maybe the Thames Estuary region where the streamers may end up being)

GFS still being super progressive with any breakdown, about 24hrs faster than any other model btw.

[Paul Sherman]

4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Sarcasm?...or serious?, looks okay by the chart you posted/

That was yesterdays run that I saved just for prosperity and for future archiving

But.........So far the 12z's are pushing this way way too far to the SE so much that even I am started to get a tad twitchy about Sunday. 

Lets see what the 18z's show I guess but if the UKV starts shoving this into the North Sea for the Cod to enjoy I will be a very unhappy camper along with most of the SE but I guess for everyones woe some other regionals will be rejoicing and popping the Pomagne

Edited February 5, 2021 by Paul Sherman

[kold weather]

10 minutes ago, snowking said:

I'm afraid aside from the GFS, the trend to push everything further SE is continuing, with the Arome and Harmonie models also significantly further SE than on their 6z runs.

At this rate, we might as well just get rid of the system and rely on showers off the North Sea instead

Yeah I think you and I are both going to be too far west to benefit on Sunday, unless I get lucky that the cold air tucks in enough to turn the back end of the front sinking south into snow, a dusting from such a solution seems possible down here.

I'm almost certainly going to have to depend on a Thames streamer kicking in in order to get a ecent fall during this event. Very much random luck going to go on!

Edited February 5, 2021 by kold weather

[exodus]

I'm really confused now... I'm in Stansted in Essex... Are we still looking at a good snow event here for Sunday? Sorry guys, been a busy day with kids so feel a bit out of the loop.

[Thinon]

4 minutes ago, snowking said:

I'm afraid aside from the GFS, the trend to push everything further SE is continuing, with the Arome and Harmonie models also significantly further SE than on their 6z runs.

At this rate, we might as well just get rid of the system and rely on showers off the North Sea instead

Yes this is exactly why the BBC and MetO still emphasize "uncertainty" over the snow accumulations. And the severe weather warnings are based almost solely on the potential "impact" rather than "likelihood", as per the MetO's impact matrix. That organised system may not reach land at all, and this certainly seems to be a growing trend. But things can, and probably will,  change

[Djdazzle]

Just now, exodus said:

I'm really confused now... I'm in Stansted in Essex... Are we still looking at a good snow event here for Sunday? Sorry guys, been a busy day with kids so feel a bit out of the loop.

Think there's a very good chance.

[PLANET THANET]

The updated 1500 hrs met forecast for Thanet and Dover has us in the amber alert for sunday with heavy snow from 6am to 6pm and then has light snow for the rest of the evening !!

[Weathizard]

Couldn’t make it up for us on the south coast ahahahaha  

[Southender]

13 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Am hoping to do a facebook live if there are 40mph winds and Blizzards at some point on Sunday as probably wont see those conditions very much in my lifetime in this country, have a country park near me which is exposed to the east so should get some serious drifting pics if snow accumulation is heavy enough, like Alexis said could be some harsh conditions out there

I’ll bring the dominator

[SnowBlake]

10 minutes ago, snowking said:

I'm afraid aside from the GFS, the trend to push everything further SE is continuing, with the Arome and Harmonie models also significantly further SE than on their 6z runs.

At this rate, we might as well just get rid of the system and rely on showers off the North Sea instead

Could bode well for Hastings, although I am in Latvia with plenty of snow. Seems 30-40% of models showing now that Kent streamers likely, hopefully extending to Hastings. I shall watch the live webcam on Beaming (and other sites) as it pans around the seafront to. Typical I miss that snowfall when I am not there... possibly.

[mattneal]

Just now, exodus said:

I'm really confused now... I'm in Stansted in Essex... Are we still looking at a good snow event here for Sunday? Sorry guys, been a busy day with kids so feel a bit out of the loop.

i think there is a very good chance of at least something white falling from the sky. Yes the main threat would appear to be further east of here, but will come down to the radar on the day

[Paul Sherman]

3 minutes ago, Southender said:

I’ll bring the dominator

Oi Thats my car and I am clearly seen in the drivers seat lol

 

[Eagle Eye]

I've been into weather ever since I was 5, I heard rumbling and asked what it was, my mum kindly replied "thunder," rather than doing the normal thing and saying something silly. Normally a lot of people would have stopped after learning the basics but I stuck at it, by the end of primary school I was learning about clouds and how they formed. 

Secondary school, at first it wasn't much that I continued on with learning the basic's of clouds, in Year 8 In Lockdown when I joined Here I began to learn more and more learning as I went then I finally found more than the Storms and Connective Discussion by about 5 Months in and I began looking at articles and read my first ever Dynamic Meteorology Book about a Week back, so this is my first Winter Snow Chance where I had more than just a basic understanding of meteorology. 

In 2013 I consciously realized that I was seeing snow and missed someone's Birthday Party, I believe it was my friends. After that I was used to the odd occasional snow shower until 2018 when I got that Beast and began Sledging every day because School was called off. Although I had seen major Snow's before that because my nan lives up north. This Year feels like it could be a second 2018 experience perhaps even 2013 where I had feet of Snow depending on how this Beast turns out. 

Xander

[Eagle Eye]

8 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

The updated 1500 hrs met forecast for Thanet and Dover has us in the amber alert for sunday with heavy snow from 6am to 6pm and then has light snow for the rest of the evening !!

That's a long met forecast. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

7 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Couldn’t make it up for us on the south coast ahahahaha  

[Nimbusman]

Didn’t realise this was the UKV until Tim mentioned it but here’s the latest. Lots of action for all the region: 

 

[throwoff]

I think all of Kent is getting hit, it’s always strange when we have these events as I forget this is also the EA and London region so we have such massive differences in the same forum

 

[craigore]

10 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

The updated 1500 hrs met forecast for Thanet and Dover has us in the amber alert for sunday with heavy snow from 6am to 6pm and then has light snow for the rest of the evening !!

My bbc app has us down for 34 hours of heavy/light snow from 3 a.m sunday through till monday late afternoon.

Will more snow Symbols for monday night/Tues.

Starting to get proper Excited..

[kold weather]

Needless to say the first half of next week looks bitterly cold, going to feel very 80s out there given the wind chill, regardless of how much snow showers actually are around:

These are Tuesday maxes according to the GFS. Anywhere inland that does get good snow cover from streamers, etc will probably be 2-3c lower than this:

 

[Polaris]

19 minutes ago, snowking said:

I'm afraid aside from the GFS, the trend to push everything further SE is continuing, with the Arome and Harmonie models also significantly further SE than on their 6z runs.

At this rate, we might as well just get rid of the system and rely on showers off the North Sea instead

Whilst this is definitely of note and concern for those in the Amber Warning these frontal systems can make fools out of us, as well as the professionals. 
Many of times during similar/ snowfall events I was bemused looking at the radar in real time. 

Monday I think is going to see raging snow showers piling in from the North Sea. All of our region likely to cop some heavy snow showers with the heaviest falls out east 

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, throwoff said:

I think all of Kent is getting hit, it’s always strange when we have these events as I forget this is also the EA and London region so we have such massive differences in the same forum

 

Textbook Thames streamer there for Tuesday on that run!

The winds are ENE by that point so that seems like a very likely period for us to tap into any streamer.

[Bazza118]

i see for my area the met office now has a high on mon & tue of -2c, Sunday and wednesday has highs of 0c ( so 4 ice days in total)