South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[nanu]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

Remember when your Nan always said “It always warms up before we get snow” well you look outside today and you realise she was absolutely spot on. What a gorgeous day. Blue skies, heat haze on the car roofs, daffs springing up. Mental to think in less than 48hrs we are in the freezer.

My mum has always said if the daffodils spring early its gonna snow 

[James Maidstone]

12 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

No.

850'a are much better though for our area.

I assumed that was from the perspective of the precipitation amounts rather than the temperatures enabling snow?  the greater the sinking SE then the less the risk, but also less of a reward

[NO LONGER POSTING]

3 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Looks like sweet Fa for areas to the West of London from the BBC forecast just now!

What those half assed dodgy graphics that come from some other weather source now not the MET office 

[loafer]

2 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

Stunning afternoon in central London with some hints of warmth from the strengthening sun. 

Next week is going to be a real shock to the system for the average joe!

Talking of which.. WOW - Sunday's event could result in some historic snowfall across parts of Essex & Kent if conditions are right.

Errr...that purple bit goes right over my house...!

[Snowman31]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

What those half assed dodgy graphics that come from some other weather source now not the MET office 

It will be yesterday's ECM

[Ols500]

3 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

Stunning afternoon in central London with some hints of warmth from the strengthening sun. 

Next week is going to be a real shock to the system for the average joe!

Talking of which.. WOW - Sunday's event could result in some historic snowfall across parts of Essex & Kent if conditions are right.

looks highly localised... not good...

[BLS]

I look like I could be in for an absolute pasting Sunday, see some talk about pulling an all nighter, I think my plan will be to get up around 3:30am open the Curtains and sit by the window and watch the test match of channel 4 while the snow builds up outside

 

The missis is still refusing to admit it’s going to snow lol

[Uxbridge90]

Wouldn't pay too much attention to the BBC or the automated forcasts. 

[Ben M]

Well somebody's getting fired...BBC South East weather just now showed the Look East forecast instead lol the newsreader was like "Sorry, that was the wrong weather" - it's similar enough to the SE patch though I guess 

[Southender]

1 minute ago, Ols500 said:

looks highly localised... not good...

Some random Swiss model has churned that out. Wouldn’t take much notice. Lovely to look at though if you’re under the purple

[Number 23]

1 minute ago, Stabilo19 said:

Stunning afternoon in central London with some hints of warmth from the strengthening sun. 

Next week is going to be a real shock to the system for the average joe!

Talking of which.. WOW - Sunday's event could result in some historic snowfall across parts of Essex & Kent if conditions are right.

Just goes to show how much local variation you can end up with in these set ups. That's just about a perfect example!

Hope we can get at least a decent covering in as many areas as possible, even if it means sacrificing being in a bullseye zone - much better for the atmosphere in here!

[tinybill]

local. Weather warnings for sun/monday of 19inches of snow!!

[Tom Quintavalle]

For those Members, from Mid-Kent down to East Sussex, that depiction of Snowfall amounts on a N.E. flow, has the Mid-Kent Streamer written all over it: 

Regards,

Tom.  

[jamesgold]

Well BBC London mentioned significant snow along the Thames. Wasn’t shown on graphics but clearly streamers are in the thinking

[Average Joe]

13 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

Stunning afternoon in central London with some hints of warmth from the strengthening sun. 

Next week is going to be a real shock to the system for the average joe!

Talking of which.. WOW - Sunday's event could result in some historic snowfall across parts of Essex & Kent if conditions are right.

Looks like I'm going to get a shock then.......great!!

[Stabilo19]

Most models suggest a widespread covering of snow across the region so keep your sleds out!  

Whether or not streamers set up will be down to radar watching on the day. 

[danm]

38 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I think that was the "wrong type of snow" event

It was indeed:

The wrong type of snow - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

"The wrong type of snow" or "the wrong kind of snow" is a phrase coined by the British media in 1991 after severe weather caused disruption to many of British Rail's services. A British Rail press release implied that management and its engineering staff were unaware of different types of snow. Henceforth in the United Kingdom, the phrase became a byword for euphemistic and pointless excuses.[1]

 

The phrase originated in an interview conducted by James Naughtie on BBC Radio 4's Today Programme on 11 February 1991. British Rail's Director of Operations, Terry Worrall, was asked to comment on the adverse effects of the unusually heavy 1991 snowfall on railway services that winter. Worrall explained that "we are having particular problems with the type of snow, which is rare in the UK". Naughtie replied "Oh, I see, it was the wrong kind of snow," to which Worrall replied, "No, it was a different kind of snow". The exchange prompted a headline in the London Evening Standard saying "British Rail blames the wrong type of snow" which was swiftly taken up by the media and other papers.[2]

The cold snap had been forecast and British Rail had claimed to be ready for the coming snow. However, the snow was unusually soft and powdery and too deep to be cleared by snowploughs – it needed snowblowers. The snow found its way into electrical systems and caused short circuits and traction motor damage in trains.[3] For traction motors with integral cooling fans and air intakes pointing downwards – the type that is still common on British electric multiple units – the problem was made worse as the air intakes sucked up the loose snow. Meanwhile, the snow also became packed into sliding door mechanisms and into points, causing them to fail.[3][4] In addition, low temperatures resulted in problems with electric current collection from the third rail.

Many electric services had to be replaced by diesel haulage, and emergency timetables were introduced. Long delays were commonplace – up to eight hours in some cases. The disruption lasted over a week.[3]

Edited February 5, 2021 by danm

[Speedbird]

Just now, TomSE12 said:

For those Members, from Mid-Kent down to East Sussex, that depiction of Snowfall amounts on a N.E. flow, has the Mid-Kent Streamer written all over it: 

Regards,

Tom.  

Fortunately for most, it's from some unknown central European agency and represents nothing other than bin material

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Its crazy how much when I look more at the EURO4 model how close the met office warnings are to its 06z run.. I know @Tim Bland mentioned it earlier but its basically a direct copy of the areas with highest accumulated snow from the EURO4 model.

I have looked through all the other high res runs this morning from the crappy NNM to the mighty ICON but nothing matches up better than the EURO 4  to the warnings

 

Tried to scale it up a bit 

 

 

 

[tight isobar]

Fully expect an extension of amber warnings across large swathe of the region.. as the easterly inflow ebbs in and the rolling convection machine ramps up massively.. as illustrated via the 00z ecm @ 850hpas @850vents @500 geo pot!... impactual organised snow bands... and persistent snow showers region wide.. sweet spots well in excess of 10/15 cms ground accumulation........ edit.. I hope that was straight forward =understood by some!!!

Edited February 5, 2021 by tight isobar

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

9 minutes ago, Uxbridge90 said:

Wouldn't pay too much attention to the BBC or the automated forcasts. 

Unfortunately the Met Office video also show hardly any snow West of London

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 minute ago, jamesgold said:

Well BBC London mentioned significant snow along the Thames. Wasn’t shown on graphics but clearly streamers are in the thinking

Moisture being pulled down the Thames Sunday with the front etc and like you say streamers..

 

There was some discussion earlier today on the impacts of more moisture being pulled down the Thames and estuary Sunday thats prehaps what the EURO4 is picking up on

[tight isobar]

Our region fully in the firing line.. as expected via easterly incursion... some crazy weather imminent

[Southender]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Fully expect an extension of amber warnings across large swathe of the region.. as the easterly inflow ebbs in the rolling convection machine ramps up massively.. as illustrated via the 00z ecm @ 850hpas @850vents @500 geo pot!... impactual organised snow bands... and persistent snow showers region wide.. sweet spots well in excess of 10/15 cms ground accumulation........ edit.. I hope that was straight forward =understood by some!!!

@tight isobar coming in with the ....it’s game on

[saintkip]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Unfortunately the Met Office video also show hardly any snow West of London

It’s pony, everyday I marvel at How bad they are. Currently I’m supposed to have sunshine , it’s actually pxissing down, they are hopeless