South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Timmytour]

38 minutes ago, danm said:

It is crazy to think this spell is starting exactly 30 years later, talk about weird timing! 

Always great to remind ourselves of that time. It is still the benchmark for me. I was only 5 at the time but remember the heavy snow well. Getting sent home from school in north east London with snow drifts piling high up against the school playground walls. Our classroom door leading out to the playground was blocked with snow so we had to walk through the main hall and out of a different exit. A good foot of powdery snow lay on the ground by the 8th/9th with daytime temperatures of around -4c/-5c. I have no memory of Jan 87, being only a year old, which was colder but not as snowy for London as Feb 91, although 87 was exceptional for snow to the east of London.

Never get bored of watching these classic forecasts from that spell:

 

 

I think that was the "wrong type of snow" event

[kate1]

17 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I hate to pull alnighters as I love my sleep and usually I wake up at 4am everyday.. 

What im thinking is going to bed earlier like 7pm and getting up around 1-2am and hopefully the transition will have happened and I will see FLAKES

Whenever there's snow forecast I always tell myself I will be sensible and go to bed at a reasonable time but I know full well that come 4AM on Sunday, there I will be, turning the light outside the back door on and off.....

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 minute ago, kate1 said:

Whenever there's snow forecast I always tell myself I will be sensible and go to bed at a reasonable time but I know full well that come 4AM on Sunday, there I will be, turning the light outside the back door on and off.....

HAHA!! Im waiting for the "its raining snow is off.. all over hyped" posts tomorrow morning and evening....

 

teheheheh

[Paul Sherman]

10 minutes ago, Nick F said:

T-shirt and shorts weather on Monday then. Will feel fresh in the strong NE wind

Yet you go on the BBC Climate Ramping site and they are going for 3c on Monday - Lol absolute charlatans on there

[Nick F]

19 minutes ago, Mr_Pessimistic said:

Anyone knowledgeable care to comment on this?  It looked the same on yesterdays 72hr fax chart..  Looks too far away to affect anyone?...

I suspect it's a combination of wind convergence between NE winds and SE winds and vorticity wrapping around the low on near continent creating lift of moist air rather than the fronts generating the continuous snow. 

Wind charts below at different levels

[Snowonder]

52 minutes ago, snowking said:

Indeed Nick, I think @kold weather mentioned earlier about previous such events around 2009/2010 which saw this effect happen with some amplification of the precipitation extent and intensity vs modelling when it runs through the estuary, running both North and South.

We could very well be into that territory come Sunday. An exciting 72 hours ahead.

Hi Snowking, being in Bedford also, are we on the edge of the big stuff? How much do you expect us to get. Pretty sure it will be a nowcast but 5cm the other sunday was more than expected. fingers crossed for all  

[Southender]

12 minutes ago, Nick F said:

T-shirt and shorts weather on Monday then. Will feel fresh in the strong NE wind

I’d even say that’s perhaps a tad conservative from the beeb (shock) Wouldn’t be surprised to see more minus double digit wind chills over any snow cover and certainly towards dawn.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Southender

[SLEETY]

Is that a wind up warning from the MET OFFICE as no snow here but drive upto A27 and snow, so all the  S and SE coasts see no snow till Hastings east AND you only need to drive  inland about a mile? to see Snow either W E Or N. No onshore wind as its coming from NE so seems a garbage map

[TSNWK]

24 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I hate to pull alnighters as I love my sleep and usually I wake up at 4am everyday.. 

What im thinking is going to bed earlier like 7pm and getting up around 1-2am and hopefully the transition will have happened and I will see FLAKES

Great shout.  once transition complete.  Watch the early runs and a couple more hours kip and out for a mid morning walk

Edited February 5, 2021 by TSNWK

[Speedbird]

58 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Nov 30th to Dec 2nd 2010 saw 34cm of Level Snow here, surprised you never got anything more from that event.

 

with a bit of luck, especially with regards to streamers, i'd like to think we have a chance of repeating those depths over the next few days

[Snowman31]

41 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:

 

Has the 6z ECM moved south again? If so not good for Sundays snow I suspect 

[tesaro]

I don’t think enough is being made of the Wind strength Sunday into Monday. As the Snow looks to be of the Powder variety. Those complaining of a measly 5-10 Cms could have a whole lot more building up in places. 

One of those places is under my Front Door

Seriously though, bare this in mind if your planning a trip out. Hope you all get what your dreaming about. I’m not keen on the stuff myself but I expect here 120mts up in rural Suffolk, I will have to grin and bare it.

[Mr_Pessimistic]

3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I suspect it's a combination of wind convergence between NE winds and SE winds and vorticity wrapping around the low on near continent creating lift of moist air rather than the fronts generating the continuous snow. 

Wind charts below at different levels

That's great, thanks for the reply. Things are never simple!

[Southender]

Looking forward to witnessing that wet to dull grey then white changeover on the roads early hours Sunday. Amazing how it happens really when the ground is so wet.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Southender

[snowking]

3 minutes ago, Snowonder said:

Hi Snowking, being in Bedford also, are we on the edge of the big stuff? How much do you expect us to get. Pretty sure it will be a nowcast but 5cm the other sunday was more than expected. fingers crossed for all  

Hi there.

I think we are right on the periphery of proceedings if current modelling is to be believed. Right now I'm not expecting more than a few cms here Sunday-Monday, but I suspect it will be a case of radar watching on Sunday morning and hoping to see things reach a little further North and West than forecast.

It could well be a bit of a frustrating one for us looking at it right now, but let's hope for some upgrades

[Speedbird]

3 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:

Has the 6z ECM moved south again? If so not good for Sundays snow I suspect 

No.

850'a are much better though for our area.

[Tim Bland]

Just now, Speedbird said:

No.

850'a are much better though for our area.

Can you post it please

[NO LONGER POSTING]

3 minutes ago, Southender said:

Looking forward to witnessing that wet to dull grey then white changeover early hours Sunday. Amazing how it happens really when the ground is so wet.

Oh the "its to wet to settle" gang  

 

Yes its very cool when you see it! Its like how the is snow settling on wetness!

[Big Dave]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

Oh the "its to wet to settle" gang  

 

Yes its very cool when you see it! Its like how the is snow settling on wetness!

This afternoon i am constructing a large tarpaulin to stretch over the garden, at approx 2am I shall head outside to remove said tarpaulin and marvel how the snow settles on my garden whilst simultaneously melting on my neighbours veg patch. 

As long as it is actually snow this time not rain! 

(and I'm not actually serious for anyone who thought I might be - always one)

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just now, Big Dave said:

This afternoon i am constructing a large tarpaulin to stretch over the garden, at approx 2am I shall head outside to remove said tarpaulin and marvel how the snow settles on my garden whilst simultaneously melting on my neighbours veg patch. 

As long as it is actually snow this time not rain! 

(and I'm not actually serious for anyone who thought I might be - always one)

 When I was really young around 8 or 9 I remember wiping the table dry when it was snowing in hope it would make it settle... Im glad I understand the mechanics behind settling snow now so I don't make myself look that stupid

[James Maidstone]

1 hour ago, Mark wheeler said:

Very exciting times ahead . Thought I’d post the Harmonie final chart that is now coming in to range. Could that be a little Thames streamer showing up amongst the band . 

Harmonie ties in very well to the Met Office Amber Warning

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Looks like sweet Fa for areas to the West of London from the BBC forecast just now!

Edited February 5, 2021 by prolongedSnowLover

[Southender]

Remember when your Nan always said “It always warms up before we get snow” well you look outside today and you realise she was absolutely spot on. What a gorgeous day. Blue skies, heat haze on the car roofs, daffs springing up. Mental to think in less than 48hrs we are in the freezer. Very USA-esque!

Edited February 5, 2021 by Southender

[HammerJack]

Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

Looks like sweet Fa for areas to the West of London from the BBC forecast just now!

I actually have a lot more faith in some of the poster in here, than I do in the BBC! 
 

[Stabilo19]

Stunning afternoon in central London with some hints of warmth from the strengthening sun. 

Next week is going to be a real shock to the system for the average joe!

Talking of which.. WOW - Sunday's event could result in some historic snowfall across parts of Essex & Kent if conditions are right.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Stabilo19