South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Lampostwatcher]

Just comparing all the main 

3 snow depth charts up to Sunday late evening 

Ecm ' UKmo  and gfs 

My estimates would be 

1-3cms west of London  reading Oxford area down to Basingstoke 

3 - 7cms east of them locations till central London North to South 

East London North to South 

10cm -12cms 

With Essex east from colchester down to Kent 15- 20 cms

[suffolkboy_]

2 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:

Doesn't tie in with their warning and looks further west 

I wonder if the strength of the wind in the extreme east is also a factor. 50mph gusts can cause significant drifting which makes things so much more difficult for transport.

[Jason T]

10 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Oooh, look at all the white heading our way on Met O precip animation

 

Could very much see that Amber being extended further inland Nick with relation to the Wind / Gale Factors

[Snowman31]

Just now, mattneal said:

Looks like it ties in pretty well if you ask me. Rest of ea and se is still under yellow

I would have thought London would also have Amber warning then and snow stretches to the SW of England (not the heavier snow). 

I hope it's right. I would take that in an instant. 

 

[snowking]

For those concerned about being just outside the Amber Warning, probably worth bearing in mind 3 things:

1. It's worth a read of the Yellow warning explanation too, in which it says that 10-20cm is quite possible even within that area the further east you head

2. The warning area and the modelling of the snow will almost certainly move around yet (even just taking a look through the Arome and Arperge ensembles there's still such a large spread) and will again inevitably be different to what is modelled anyway - bear in mind the last two attempts at snow events for our region as a whole have ended up significantly further North than was forecast even 6-12 hours away - this could well end up further North or South by some margin come T+0

3. This only covers this coming weekend. What comes after that is even less model-able, and we've seen many times before many more showers/streamers/longer spells of snow developing and pushing inland than currently modelled.

There's a reason broadcast meteorologists are joking around on Twitter about what on earth they are going to say in their forecasts over the next few days as nothing is really off the table.

Exciting times though look far more certain for those immediately around the estuary

[ITSY]

5 minutes ago, Jason T said:

Could very much see that Amber being extended further inland Nick with relation to the Wind / Gale Factors

Not sure about the depths further west but this is a very encouraging video. It shows plenty of action for those in the southern half of the Cambs and even Herts too, including for Cambridge itself. Lots still to be determined. I get the feeling we'll miss out still just based on where the models are aligning around Suffolk and Essex but it won't take much in the tweaks to bring more of us into play...

[Lampostwatcher]

That amber warning I'm very positive will extend 

[Icebox]

And now I'm out of the yellow warning... oh well at least the sun's out.

[Jason M]

If we were to get 15cm here it would probably be the biggest snowfall since 1991. There have been some good events around the region in the last few years but we have really missed out in this part of Essex. Had a lot of cold rain here whereas places just 15 miles west have seen snow.

i think it was late November 2009 when we got 12cm from a streamer when the wind just veered south of direct East. Usually this side of the estuary we get much less than Kent so this would be a really rare event here if it comes off.

[Nick F]

9 minutes ago, Jason T said:

Could very much see that Amber being extended further inland Nick with relation to the Wind / Gale Factors

Yeah, my thinking too, with a strong NEly wind Sunday, snow streaming through the Thames and uplift from the discontinuity between the flat area around the estuary and rising land to the south of the estuary, with streamer development inland across S burbs of London/E Surrey/ W Kent / E and parts of W Sussex a possibility IMO, would suggest amber may need to be extended to these areas based on past experience.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Nick F

[ITSY]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Yeah, my thinking too, with a strong NEly wind Sunday, snow streaming through the Thames and uplift from the discontinuity of the flat area around the estuary and rising land to the south of the estuary, with streamer development inland across S burbs of London/E Surrey/ W Kent / E and parts of W Sussex a possibility IMO, would suggest amber may need to be extended to these areas based on past experience.

This is a really IMBY question so apologies @Nick F but what's the chances for the Cambridge crew in your view? I can't see more than a dusting myself but I bow to those with professional experience ! 

[North Downs Snowboarder]

Do you think it might get cold?

[Snowman31]

Latest Hirlam at midnight Sunday ties in quite well with the neto warnings. 

 

 

 

 

We can dream 

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Snowman31
Wrong times

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just now, Nick F said:

Yeah, my thinking too, with a strong NEly wind Sunday, snow streaming through the Thames and uplift from the discontinuity between the flat area around the estuary and rising land to the south of the estuary, with streamer development inland across S burbs of London/E Surrey/ W Kent / E and parts of W Sussex a possibility IMO, would suggest amber may need to be extended to these areas based on past experience.

Oh Nick, I love it when you talk dirty!

[EJA]

18 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I'm not lying when I say 'I believe you'!

I love the depth of your comments!

[yamkin]

1 hour ago, jamesgold said:

Right, amber warning bingo? I reckon east anglia, Essex and Kent for sure today. Less sure about London at this point but fingers crossed

This Amber warning will most probably be extended further inland on Sunday

[Nick F]

5 minutes ago, ITSY said:

This is a really IMBY question so apologies @Nick F but what's the chances for the Cambridge crew in your view? I can't see more than a dusting myself but I bow to those with professional experience ! 

Looks like a reasonable chance of 5cm for Cambridge, maybe more if you luck out.

[Hammer]

I use to live Stanford-le-hope way in Essex that type of location done well in this setup. 

Fully expect my current location to not favour quite so well, but should hopefully still get some. 

[eastangliawx]

How's it looking in lowestoft are we to far north?

Edited February 5, 2021 by samwx

[Lampostwatcher]

3 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:

Latest Hirlam at midnight Sunday ties in quite well with the neto warnings. 

 

 

Below 6pm Sunday 

 

And 11am Monday.. We can dream 

 

Icon has the same thoughts in that last chart front pushing up northeast

[Froze were the Days]

Possible 50 mph gusts!?!...that's what surprised me in the last 'dud' rainy easterly we had back in early January...the breeze!, even on the fax charts it didn't appear to show it to be that breezy but still had average wind speeds of 15-20mph here...so could be looking at winds in excess of that!

Certain drifting if any amounts fall.

Here in Feb 2012...14cms, Feb/March 2018...13.5cms

Edited February 5, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[Froze were the Days]

3 minutes ago, samwx said:

How's it looking in lowestoft are we to far north?

Good area to be I'd say...currently

[Ols500]

15 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Yeah, my thinking too, with a strong NEly wind Sunday, snow streaming through the Thames and uplift from the discontinuity between the flat area around the estuary and rising land to the south of the estuary, with streamer development inland across S burbs of London/E Surrey/ W Kent / E and parts of W Sussex a possibility IMO, would suggest amber may need to be extended to these areas based on past experience.

feb 2009 streamer please 

[Tim Bland]

By Dan Holley ...

[winterfreak]

9 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:

Latest Hirlam at midnight Sunday ties in quite well with the neto warnings. 

 

 

 

 

We can dream 

 

Is that rain for Kent at 11:00am?