South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Biggin]

9 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Night all happy snow chasing ️️️ Hope you all get a good pounding of snow and lots of snow Pics

[Nick L]

Come on everyone, let's avoid going down the road of commenting/criticising specific posters in the MOD thread please. 

[smichling]

In the build up to a cold spell or a snowy event, I'll always switch from the model thread to the regional as we get into the 'home stretch', and I think tonight is my cue to do that! 

[Biggin]

11 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Come on everyone, let's avoid going down the road of commenting/criticising specific posters in the MOD thread please. 

Soz Nick.

[paget]

Still not much showing on the actual forecasts for here (Farnham) on Sunday, a few single flakes on the meto and one single one on bbc, net weather is showing heavy snow most of the day and metcheck (as usual!)  has heavy snow until July!!  

 

 

[danm]

Is another Beast from the East on the way? - BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Easterly winds are set to bring a spell of substantial and potentially disruptive snow to parts of the UK in the coming days.

 

[kold weather]

Really cool to watch on the 18z GFS the frontal system from the left over low exit to the south which draws in the frontal system over France into the SE and slowly northwards till the leftover low swings back S and then E which acts a counter balance and stops the front getting any further north.

Streamers are going to have to be very closely watched, regardless of what happens Sunday. Even in more modest easterlies such as Feb 05 they can kick start some locally quite impressive snowfalls, especially to those that are exposed to a ENE and later a due E airflow.

[Tom Jarvis]

Any news on the ecm 18z? 

[Maidstone marginal]

2 minutes ago, paget said:

Still not much showing on the actual forecasts for here (Farnham) on Sunday, a few single flakes on the meto and one single one on bbc, net weather is showing heavy snow most of the day and metcheck (as usual!)  has heavy snow until July!!  

 

 

Farnham and fleet, where my sister lives did rather well on 24th January. 98 percent of Kent got rain and sleet. Send some of the luck towards the east please

[Snowman31]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Really cool to watch on the 18z GFS the frontal system from the left over low exit to the south which draws in the frontal system over France into the SE and slowly northwards till the leftover low swings back S and then E which acts a counter balance and stops the front getting any further north.

Streamers are going to have to be very closely watched, regardless of what happens Sunday. Even in more modest easterlies such as Feb 05 they can kick start some locally quite impressive snowfalls, especially to those that are exposed to a ENE and later a due E airflow.

Hi Kold, do you think Sundays snow will keep correcting south and/or east? My location doesn't tend to do well in streamers so was hoping for something on Sunday. 

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:

Hi Kold, do you think Sundays snow will keep correcting south and/or east? My location doesn't tend to do well in streamers so was hoping for something on Sunday. 

Honestly its very hard to say, it may well do and then suddenly on the day jut much further west, or be more intense than forecasted. 

We saw an example of that last Sunday where upto the day the models have very little precip getting outside of the SW. In the end it spread way further east and far heavier.

Equally it could well work the opposite way.

My gut is that if it was to come in anyway, it maybe further west but also weaker, as there is quite a sharp undercut of cold air through Saturday night which I've known in the past to constrict precip quicker than the models expect. 

Still as I said before, it really could go either way and anyone who pretends to know is kidding themselves.

The only thing we can probably say with some confidence is the closer you are to the EA coast, the better, in both this and snow showers as well, unless you are lucky to be upstream from a streamer.

EDIT - btw there are more than a few hints on several global models for a Thames streamer to get going at some points, probably aimed slightly further north than usual with a near due easterly at times once past Monday evening. Also could well be banding snow lines moving through EA in general, both UKV and ARPEGE showed that quite well in their previous runs.

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[Maidstone marginal]

11 minutes ago, paget said:

Still not much showing on the actual forecasts for here (Farnham) on Sunday, a few single flakes on the meto and one single one on bbc, net weather is showing heavy snow most of the day and metcheck (as usual!)  has heavy snow until July!!  

 

 

Farnham and fleet, where my sister lives did rather well on 24th January. 98 percent of Kent got rain and sleet. Send some of the luck towards the east please

[Jayces]

With this likely to be a rain to snow event for our area and being overnight with falling temps what's the thinking on how quickly it starts settling or is that just not predictable at this stage?

Also I'm guessing the wet pavement under the settling snow is going to freeze during Sunday AM which is related to the ice warnings maybe?

Looks like it's going to be great to have some snow but could be dangerous conditions on untreated surfaces.

[Maidstone marginal]

Ok I've given up looking at the models and the mod thread. So is it true that this will end up as an east Kent daggler event like Feb 2010? 

[Maidstone marginal]

2 minutes ago, Maidstone marginal said:

Ok I've given up looking at the models and the mod thread. So is it true that this will end up as an east Kent daggler event like Feb 2010? 

Or late December 2005

[Nick L]

5 minutes ago, Jayces said:

With this likely to be a rain to snow event for our area and being overnight with falling temps what's the thinking on how quickly it starts settling or is that just not predictable at this stage?

Also I'm guessing the wet pavement under the settling snow is going to freeze during Sunday AM which is related to the ice warnings maybe?

Looks like it's going to be great to have some snow but could be dangerous conditions on untreated surfaces.

It will settle quickly.

Contrary to popular belief, snow will happily settle on a wet surface. The temperature is more important. It will be a progressively colder night, and the fact it's happening at night will really play into our favour. By the time we get to the end of the night we're into proper cold air!

Edited February 4, 2021 by Nick L

[yamkin]

 

[kold weather]

Also I'm really surprised just how low maxes are progged to be...

Consdering we are under modest cold (relative to some easterly events) we are still likely to see sub zero maxes very widely. Even the ICON which is lacking in snow cover due to not doing a good job of convection has us around -1/2c as maxes. This tells me IF snowfall is more widespread through Sun-Mon we could have an exceptionally cold days on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Also goes to show how useful it is to have a major snow event upstream in Holland and W.Germany. Because of it the surface is BITTER and that air comes across the snow fields and cools far further than you'd expect based on the 850hpa profile alone.

If we end up with snow cover, the maxes may well end up in the -4/-5c range quite widely, which is WAY over punching what you'd expect with -10/11c isotherm, thats closer to what you'd expect from something like -15/16C at 850hp.

[Sarahgreatchart]

Hubby out in ambulance 10-2200 Sunday - he always gets stuck in snow so that’sa reliable prediction !

[Jayces]

2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

It will settle quickly.

Contrary to popular belief, snow will happily settle on a wet surface. The temperature is more important. It will be a progressively colder night, and the fact it's happening at night will really play into our favour.

Thanks Nick, looking forward (like everyone here) to seeing some laying snow for a few days hopefully.

[kold weather]

Just now, Sarahgreatchart said:

Hubby out in ambulance 10-2200 Sunday - he always gets stuck in snow so that’sa reliable prediction !

I'm meant to be getting my vaccine jab on Sunday morning...oops!

[londonblizzard]

12 minutes ago, Jayces said:

With this likely to be a rain to snow event for our area and being overnight with falling temps what's the thinking on how quickly it starts settling or is that just not predictable at this stage?

Also I'm guessing the wet pavement under the settling snow is going to freeze during Sunday AM which is related to the ice warnings maybe?

Looks like it's going to be great to have some snow but could be dangerous conditions on untreated surfaces.

Latest GFS run has the 'rain to snow event' start falling as snow at about sunday midnight (overnight saturday going in to sunday), and by 4 in the morning temperatures at or below freezing covering this entire area.

Then from this point onwards temperatures don't get above freezing until thursday or friday. I think the GFS can often exaggerate a little bit the cold of surface temperatures though. 

Edited February 4, 2021 by londonblizzard

[Snowman31]

12 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Honestly its very hard to say, it may well do and then suddenly on the day jut much further west, or be more intense than forecasted. 

We saw an example of that last Sunday where upto the day the models have very little precip getting outside of the SW. In the end it spread way further east and far heavier.

Equally it could well work the opposite way.

My gut is that if it was to come in anyway, it maybe further west but also weaker, as there is quite a sharp undercut of cold air through Saturday night which I've known in the past to constrict precip quicker than the models expect. 

Still as I said before, it really could go either way and anyone who pretends to know is kidding themselves.

The only thing we can probably say with some confidence is the closer you are to the EA coast, the better, in both this and snow showers as well, unless you are lucky to be upstream from a streamer.

EDIT - btw there are more than a few hints on several global models for a Thames streamer to get going at some points, probably aimed slightly further north than usual with a near due easterly at times once past Monday evening. Also could well be banding snow lines moving through EA in general, both UKV and ARPEGE showed that quite well in their previous runs.

Thank you for your reply. I guess we'll have to wait and hope. 

[Sarahgreatchart]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I'm meant to be getting my vaccine jab on Sunday morning...oops!

Hopefully you can walk it! From myself and others I know you get more after effects the better your immunity

 both hubby and I were tired a few days but he was like flu 

 

i was fine

[danm]

8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Also I'm really surprised just how low maxes are progged to be...

Consdering we are under modest cold (relative to some easterly events) we are still likely to see sub zero maxes very widely. Even the ICON which is lacking in snow cover due to not doing a good job of convection has us around -1/2c as maxes. This tells me IF snowfall is more widespread through Sun-Mon we could have an exceptionally cold days on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Also goes to show how useful it is to have a major snow event upstream in Holland and W.Germany. Because of it the surface is BITTER and that air comes across the snow fields and cools far further than you'd expect based on the 850hpa profile alone.

If we end up with snow cover, the maxes may well end up in the -4/-5c range quite widely, which is WAY over punching what you'd expect with -10/11c isotherm, thats closer to what you'd expect from something like -15/16C at 850hp.

Yes agree. Just to illustrate the depth of cold over on the near continent, look at the forecast for Sunday and Monday in Amsterdam. Daytime temperatures of -5c and heavy snow with 40 mph winds. Blizzard?

Edited February 5, 2021 by danm