South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Flaked Queen]

1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

I went out in it, got soaked, the downpour hit me by surprise

Lass it’s lock down babe

[Tom Jarvis]

Just now, lassie23 said:

Is that a dog napping on you lol

Yes one of 12 puppies my ridgeback had late last year. Hoping the one we have kept sees it’s first snow next week 

[jamesgold]

BBC forecast seemed pretty bullish there, mentions of 10-15cm for some of our area... 

[alexisj9]

7 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Looks like east anglia is getting buried on this run. Might need to spit the treads as the disparity between what east Anglia gets and Kent and Sussex is quite large 

We'll be fine together.

[lassie23]

4 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Lass it’s lock down babe

I went for a walk as it seemed deserted, didn't see another human, very creepy, but safer

Edited February 4, 2021 by lassie23

[Big Dave]

29 minutes ago, abovefreezing said:

That's it! Jinxed! As soon as someone says, "Nailed on", you just know ...

Or as soon as you say “I know... I’ll live in Ashford”... the end of snow

[Maidstone marginal]

2 minutes ago, jamesgold said:

BBC forecast seemed pretty bullish there, mentions of 10-15cm for some of our area... 

They are using 22 hour old Ecm data I think. Maybe someone will correct me?

[Flaked Queen]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I went for a walk as it seemed deserted, didn't see another human, very creepy, but safer

true if you look at it that way 

[jamesgold]

Just now, Maidstone marginal said:

They are using 22 hour old Ecm data I think. Maybe someone will correct me?

Yep that is true, I guess my point was that they often avoid actually saying that sort of thing even if it’s in the raw output. Maybe they think that’s more likely 

[jimbo36]

26 minutes ago, Matty J said:

The ICON has shifted the low further south again, which tbh is now becoming a major worry. Aware that model isn’t one of the main players but it can’t be ignored.

We see on the cusp now, surely we’re not going to be left disappointed again

Over to the GFS pub run and lets hope that doesn’t shift it south!

Surely that opens the flood gates to convective showers merging together and producing all day in SE plus would bring the colder air in earlier with snow starting Saturday night possibly

 

[lassie23]

3 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

true if you look at it that way 

When it snows the streets are rammed lol. I think half my street came out last week, no masks and stuffing snow balls in each other's faces 

[jimbo36]

3 minutes ago, jamesgold said:

Yep that is true, I guess my point was that they often avoid actually saying that sort of thing even if it’s in the raw output. Maybe they think that’s more likely 

Surely no more than 6 hrs based on what we've seen in recent days from the tv forecasts, no way would they be 22 hrs behind

[Maidstone marginal]

3 minutes ago, jamesgold said:

Yep that is true, I guess my point was that they often avoid actually saying that sort of thing even if it’s in the raw output. Maybe they think that’s more likely 

I think the quality of the bbc weather service has taken a downward turn since met office lost the contract. Since 2018 they always seem to be 12 to 24 hours behind the models,,, even at really close range. Met office cost bbc too much money I guess.

[Matty88]

Although not as cold the wind direction seems very similar to 2018’s beast - which doesn’t bode that well for us south of the wash post Sunday, I think our best hopes for good snow are Sunday otherwise we may be watching on as the North gets battered (again)... hope I’m wrong though !! 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Matty88

[Flaked Queen]

8 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

When it snows the streets are rammed lol. I think half my street came out last week, no masks and stuffing snow balls in each other's faces 

At work at the time of it snowing and I wanted so much to take the residents out to the garden too see it for a few mins (reminiscing) but wasn’t allowed

[yamkin]

10 minutes ago, jamesgold said:

BBC forecast seemed pretty bullish there, mentions of 10-15cm for some of our area... 

Croydon Council have been updated with very interesting snow amounts too.

Snow will continue through much of Sunday and some locations will get 15 cm (5.9 inches). Snow showers during Monday & Tuesday with a further 4 cm (1.6 inches) in places. Temps will struggle to rise above freezing during the day.

Gritters/gritting teams are all primed and ready to go from Saturday evening.

Please bear in mind that Croydon Council are expecting the rain to quickly turn to snow during Saturday night.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Snowflake Queen said:

At work at the time of it snowing and I wanted so much to take the residents out to the garden too see it for a few mins (reminiscing) but wasn’t allowed

Your avatar is more than a tad alluring, SFQ!

[Matty J]

4 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

Although not as cold the wind direction seems very similar to 2018’s beast - which doesn’t bode that well for us south of the wash post Sunday, I think our best hopes for good snow are Sunday otherwise we may be watching on as the North gets battered (again)... hope I’m wrong though !! 

This is my main concern, if we miss Sundays prolonged snowfall from the LP system then i fear we’re facing the prospect of cold but mostly dry.

The latest beeb forcast just backed this up, the north and northeast of england were pasted with shower after shower due to the much longer sea track, and we were mostly dry. 
 

We need more of a NE element if we’re only going to rely on showers, and that isn’t showing.

Id rather get a pasting on sunday and have piles of snow on the ground then whatever comes along after is a bonus. I’m not keen on relying on showers!

[Flaked Queen]

2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Your avatar is more than a tad alluring, SFQ!

I was bored so took some pics today ! Back to work tomorrow so ppl won’t have to put up with me ️️️ Unless it snows

[jamesgold]

13 minutes ago, Maidstone marginal said:

I think the quality of the bbc weather service has taken a downward turn since met office lost the contract. Since 2018 they always seem to be 12 to 24 hours behind the models,,, even at really close range. Met office cost bbc too much money I guess.

100% it’s a worrying thing in set ups like this as well, giving people false hope or not warning of potential disruption in time etc

[Ols500]

We need this flow more easterly for a good old Thames steamer 

[Maidstone marginal]

1 minute ago, jamesgold said:

100% it’s a worrying thing in set ups like this as well, giving people false hope or not warning of potential disruption in time etc

Nail on the head mate

[jamesgold]

1 minute ago, Ols500 said:

We need this flow more easterly for a good old Thames steamer 

I think there will have to be such a flow at some point in this, low pressures, kinks in isobars etc all possible in this cold

[Flaked Queen]

2 minutes ago, Ols500 said:

We need this flow more easterly for a good old Thames steamer 

When was the last time we saw that ? Genuine question btw 

[jamesgold]

Just now, Snowflake Queen said:

When was the last time we saw that ? Genuine question btw 

I think the Wednesday evening of the 2018 BFTE. More potent, and I guess the textbook example, was the 02/02/09 event which I’m pretty sure gave quite a few inches for me in Bromley - it’s referenced with videos a few pages back in this thread