South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Maidstone marginal]

1 hour ago, londonblizzard said:

Anyone else quite enjoying the fact that this will be a cold spell *not* affecting france and central western europe? 
Always get a bit envious when we have a easterly cold spell here and it just looks even colder with our neighbours on the continent, like in 2018 

I personally don't think it's a good thing that northern France avoids the snow and especially the cold. It gives south and south east much less leeway as the boundary between cold and mild will remain perilously close. Plus in the event of the  Atlantic breakdown, a southerly or South south easterly from a frigid north France and Belgium can help with frontal snow in a battleground scenario  in this corner. 

[Paul Sherman]

36 minutes ago, Mr_Pessimistic said:

Looks to me like another Kent clipper, as usual, heading more south on each run.  So maybe a few snow flurries in the east before the low pulls away, then dry unless living north of the wash. Then probably milder later in the week.  Way over hyped on the mod thread, as usual.

Thats unlike you to post something like  this 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Paul Sherman

[Froze were the Days]

Strange the MetO still think parts of the south east still could be effected with marginality/rain - I thought ECM (which they use) wasn't showing this of the last couple of runs?

If I get more cold rain in my location after weeks and weeks of it I'll drown myself in the River Crouch (probably be drier in there).

[Tim Bland]

42 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ya won’t fella.. I eject from in ere... keyboard snakes and irrelevants!!

How to make friends and influence people by Tight Isobar

[simonhall6]

Met office have updated to heavy snow for 6 hours early hours of Sunday morning then 6 hrs of lighter snow for Brentwood (Essex)  
 

[Speedbird]

4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Thats unlike you to pot this 

the optimism is strong in that one

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Southender said:

As usual in the mad thread, they are more interested in bickering about the breakdown of something that’s not even arrived yet

They must have decided it's nailed on then, that good enough for me 

[E17boy]

Quite impressive torrential rain here in Walthamstow been like this for the past 20 minutes 

[Froze were the Days]

21 minutes ago, kold weather said:

As far as I can see, yes.

Again using the same 82 seperate ensemble members and operational models (Ie NOT GFS/ensembles, for comparison sakes) for the 12z runs:

6 are too warm for wider parts of Kent and maybe S.Essex, 1-2 of them too warm for most of the region indeed.

8 are marginal for the very far SE tip of Kent 

68 look ok for the whole region.

I'll update tomorrow's 00z run to see where the trend goes. Soon I will be able to add ARPEGE ensembles as well as a few other high resolution models, giving a total of 110+ separate runs.

 

Most recent MetO forecast with Alex Deakin was showing marginality/rain for some coastal areas throughout the day and rain for Kent - if they use ECM that wasn't showing any warm sectors near the south east?...A bit confusing.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[yamkin]

5 minutes ago, simonhall6 said:

Met office have updated to heavy snow for 6 hours early hours of Sunday morning then 6 hrs of lighter snow for Brentwood (Essex)  
 

MetO have also upgraded the snow forecast for Croydon commencing Sunday all the way to Wednesday 

[Tom Jarvis]

23 minutes ago, kold weather said:

As far as I can see, yes.

Again using the same 82 seperate ensemble members and operational models (Ie NOT GFS/ensembles, for comparison sakes) for the 12z runs:

6 are too warm for wider parts of Kent and maybe S.Essex, 1-2 of them too warm for most of the region indeed.

8 are marginal for the very far SE tip of Kent 

68 look ok for the whole region.

I'll update tomorrow's 00z run to see where the trend goes. Soon I will be able to add ARPEGE ensembles as well as a few other high resolution models, giving a total of 110+ separate runs.

 

Are then any which give good totals to Sussex? 

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Most recent MetO forecast with Alex Deakin was showing marginality/rain for some coastal areas and rain for Kent - if they use ECM that wasn't showing any warm sectors near the south east?...A bit confusing.

I have no idea at all where that is coming from.

Its 100% not from the ECM operational on any of the runs (00z, 06z not 12z), nor the UKMO that I can tell, we can see those runs publicly. MOGREPS maybe? but then it would be odd that it would be so very different from the UKMO/ECM solutions.

And as I said, 68 members/ensembles out of the 82 that I looked at had no marignality what so ever and only 6 kinda reflected that UKMO forecast, so colour me confused on that one.

Given it had low resolution at that point, probably best not reading that much into it to be honest.

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Binsey72 said:

This was posted 5 mins ago 

Such a shame the ukv has been quite bad for forecasting other events this winter. Fingers crossed it has this nailed.

Edited February 4, 2021 by alexisj9

[Tom Jarvis]

4 minutes ago, yamkin said:

MetO have also upgraded the snow forecast for Croydon commencing Sunday all the way to Wednesday 

Still only have light snow for my location in Sussex just hope there is another nudge south ore that the extent on the heavy precipitation is underestimated. 

[simonhall6]

4 minutes ago, yamkin said:

MetO have also upgraded the snow forecast for Croydon commencing Sunday all the way to Wednesday 

Let’s hope they have this right

[Arrows1986]

Our local paper again said showers and a small chance of disruption. Lol whaaattt 

[kold weather]

ICON much weaker again on the 18z run with the snowfall.

Only light snow coming through the whole region on this run.

ICON doesn't handle convection at all so expect the snow cover to look very weak this run, even if there is in reality a decent number of showers.

Looks closer to the 12z ECM, but weaker.

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[Sparky68]

After 4 hours its finally stopped raining here

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, craigore said:

In English please.

What are you saying regarding snow for S.E ??

The way I understand it, the models always under estimate cold in the se, a warm bias, he expecting us to have a big event.

Don't quote me on that incase I've translated wrong.

[Tom Jarvis]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

ICON much weaker again on the 18z run with the snowfall.

Only light snow coming through the whole region on this run.

Dam 

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

I get a feeling sundays event is tracking much further south and east. Yesterday it was far further north and west (with most of EA over into northern home counties) but today I see it is tracking lower and I think by end of tomorrow the sweet spot may be east Sussex Nd Kent and areas of Suffolk.

Shame for those north and west of London

[North Downs Snowboarder]

11 minutes ago, yamkin said:

MetO have also upgraded the snow forecast for Croydon commencing Sunday all the way to Wednesday 

Let's hope this Big Freeze is a trigger to give those desperately underfunded council gritting teams the support they need. Finally!

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Chiltern_Blizzard said:

I get a feeling sundays event is tracking much further south and east. Yesterday it was far further north and west (with most of EA over into northern home counties) but today I see it is tracking lower and I think by end of tomorrow the sweet spot may be east Sussex Nd Kent and areas of Suffolk.

Shame for those north and west of London

That was always expected though I think. These LP systems nearly always trend south as you approach the event.

Yet again, people in this thread fretting over precipitation charts!

Edited February 4, 2021 by Djdazzle

[alexisj9]

36 minutes ago, Great Plum said:

Absolutely chucking it down here in Reigate!

I've not had a drop all day, for a change. The showers or banned of rain, or whatever it is, haven't looked at radar hasn't reached here yet.

Edited February 4, 2021 by alexisj9

[kold weather]

Just now, Chiltern_Blizzard said:

I get a feeling sundays event is tracking much further south and east. Yesterday it was far further north and west (with most of EA over into northern home counties) but today I see it is tracking lower and I think by end of tomorrow the sweet spot may be east Sussex Nd Kent and areas of Suffolk.

Shame for those north and west of London

Regardless of what happens the flow looks good beyond Sunday, especially Monday afternoon-Tusday afternoon.

Also, its worth noting the models really are all over the place at the moment. Just as many give a good event to all the region as don't.

Probably a balance between not overhyping the good runs but not getting overly attached to the doom runs either.

As I said before, these events can lead to surprises, both good and bad.

As I said earlier, the 1-2nd Dec 2010 event is not dissimilar to what is forecasted here, and that also only forecasted to give small amounts further west, forecasted 1-3cms in Chichester. I ended up with about 20-22cms!