South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[EJA]

40 minutes ago, Oaks said:

Got a 8 month old collie and I'm just wanting to see his reaction to snow, pretty sure he is gonna go nuts

I have a 3 year old daughter who can’t remember snow who will probably go nuts too lol

[onepingonly]

Just now, Biggin said:

Ok just come off the mod thread, Has it all gone tits up for us? And why?

 They are looking toward the middle of next week, next few days still look good. Even next week it such an unusual system for the models to deal with it's still up for grabs. Now's the time to enjoy the next few days unless model watching is really your thing.

[Captain Shortwave]

10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ECM ensembles are all over the place on Sunday, EA is pretty good on a large number of them, but for other areas there is considerable uncertainty with regards to the location of any snowfall

Anything from a EA only event to a snow event covering the entire region is on the table, also some are further north, and a few are so far east even E.EA struggles

 

After being so bullish about the cold arriving I can’t help thinking that my location my be high on the list to miss out. A more southerly destination looks probably more likely so instead of Norfolk and Suffolk has become more Suffolk and Essex for the highest totals. I won’t begrudge those further south taking a pasting... after all Peterborough got hit a couple of weeks ago when the high res models were forecasting next to nothing.

Fax chart for Sunday

Not a lot to go by here, the south east closest to that front and possibly snow showers further north.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[eddie1]

I just want enough snow so my 5 year old daughter who has seen snow once when was 1 can build a snow man and be out while it snows after that it can do whatever it wants, hopefully we will all do well

[simonhall6]

14 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ECM ensembles are all over the place on Sunday, EA is pretty good on a large number of them, but for other areas there is considerable uncertainty with regards to the location of any snowfall

Anything from a EA only event to a snow event covering the entire region is on the table, also some are further north, and a few are so far east even E.EA struggles

 

Hi Kold weather 

have you got the precipitation charts you could post for Sunday from the ECM 

thanks 

[Polaris]

4 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

After being so bullish about the cold arriving I can’t help thinking that my location my be high on the list to miss out. A more southerly destination looks probably more likely so instead of Norfolk and Suffolk has become more Suffolk and Essex for the highest totals. I won’t begrudge those further south taking a pasting... after all Peterborough got hit a couple of weeks ago when the high res models were forecasting next to nothing.

Fax chart for Sunday

Not a lot to go by here, the south east closest to that front and possibly snow showers further north.

A definite move East on the latest FAX - so much so that only Suffolk, East Essex and East Kent likely to pick up accumulations from the front. 
 

Hopefully enough instability to bring those showers inland later Sunday into Monday. 
 

 

[Snipper]

15 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

What the bleep has logging out of a forum got to do with growing up? All this coming from someone who believes in weather Gods 

Be sad to see you go if you can’t stand the pressure. It is only a bit of weather after all. 

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, simonhall6 said:

Hi Kold weather 

have you got the precipitation charts you could post for Sunday from the ECM 

thanks 

ECM at 1am, 4am and 11am respectively:

Compared to the 00z suite:

ECM - further east

GEM - further east

GFS - Further west

ICON: Further west, but only fractionally.

ARPEGE: Further west, though weak

UKMO: Further west, and noticeably stronger.

So still a very mixed bag out there, all options on the table. 2 models are further east, 4 have moved further west, though w of those 4 are only slightly west.

Anyone that confidently tells you its going to be this or that solution is talking out their rear, no confidence at all, especially further west. Could be anything from nothing to 4-5 inches.

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[Snowman31]

5 minutes ago, Polaris said:

A definite move East on the latest FAX - so much so that only Suffolk, East Essex and East Kent likely to pick up accumulations from the front. 
 

Hopefully enough instability to bring those showers inland later Sunday into Monday. 
 

 

What's the best hi resolution model to use for Sundays snow? 

[Sparky68]

Might slip into mad thread and ask if I might get snow this week just for the giggle

[Oaks]

33 minutes ago, Marie said:

I have had labradoodles for years and I have to say they all have pretty much liked the snow , not so keen on water though

That must be the poodle in them not to like water, labradors normally love water

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Sparky68 said:

Might slip into mad thread and ask if I might get snow this week just for the giggle

You're brave!

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Oaks said:

That must be the poodle in them not to like water, labradors normally love water

I have a cockapoo, and he isn't a fan of water either!

[tight isobar]

Jumped in ere coz if I post this in mod thread there will be meltdowns... via other region members!..     anyway in a nutshell our quadrant @@south east-east anglia are modelled in some data as mild sector geographical... I’ll illustrate why this is an evolutionary trait that is highly likely miss-modelled at this juncture..(later) and in such infer =incursion.. we’ll likely be the firing line points of this incoming flow..... some  notable weather...@ incoming!!!!!!

Edited February 4, 2021 by tight isobar

[Sparky68]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

You're brave!

Live on the wild side me lol

[ITSY]

6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ECM at 1am, 4am and 11am respectively:

Compared to the 00z suite:

ECM - further east

GEM - further east

GFS - Further west

ICON: Further west, but only fractionally.

ARPEGE: Further west, though weak

UKMO: Further west, and noticeably stronger.

So still a very mixed bag out there, all options on the table. 2 models are further east, 4 have moved further west, though w of those 4 are only slightly west.

Anyone that confidently tells you its going to be this or that solution is talking out their rear, no confidence at all, especially further west. Could be anything from nothing to 4-5 inches.

I've been warning of this for a while but I'm nervous now. I think the bulk of our region will miss out over the weekend with this afternoons updates, apart from the extreme east. Just a hunch before I'm asked why! inch by inch model movements and experience combining. Let's see if the 18z keeps the general eastern movement or echoes the GFS...

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, ITSY said:

I've been warning of this for a while but I'm nervous now. I think the bulk of our region will miss out over the weekend with this afternoons updates, apart from the extreme east. Just a hunch before I'm asked why! inch by inch model movements and experience combining. Let's see if the 18z keeps the general eastern movement or echoes the GFS...

Why get hung up on those charts? They are totally useless.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Djdazzle

[kold weather]

8 minutes ago, ITSY said:

I've been warning of this for a while but I'm nervous now. I think the bulk of our region will miss out over the weekend with this afternoons updates, apart from the extreme east. Just a hunch before I'm asked why! inch by inch model movements and experience combining. Let's see if the 18z keeps the general eastern movement or echoes the GFS...

I'm getting the feelings looking at the models there are actually '2 seperate' events happening:

1: Frontal system moves into the south of England, and is getting modelled stronger and stronger. The cold air undercuts this and this is what gives the west of the region snow. Nearly all models show this set-up, but how much snow falls depends on how active it remains and how fast it undercuts. It then clears south OR decays in situ during the early hours of the morning from the west. Really uncertain set-up. I am fairly confident there will be an area of precipitation in the area, but how much of it falls as snow has to be uncertain right now. More room for maneuver the further east you are.

2: A wrap around frontal system takes over as the previous front moving south decays on the western end. This is the area that the models are suggesting remains over EA and maybe Kent and what is giving bigger snow falls. Some big ole disagreements about this area as well

So its IMO actually two seperate events that link in to each other as the dynmaics change.

PS - the one set-up this does remind me of is 1-2nd Decemer 2010. On that occasion the models badly under-estimated how far west the core precipitation would get. It was orginally modelled to only just about reach Chichester where I was based with 1-3cms (like Sunday). ended up with 20cms+_

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[Binsey72]

This was posted 5 mins ago 

[craigore]

12 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Jumped in ere coz if I post this in mod thread there will be meltdowns... via other region members!..     anyway in a nutshell our quadrant @@south east-east anglia are modelled in some data as mild sector geographical... I’ll illustrate why this is an evolutionary trait that is highly likely miss-modelled at this juncture..(later) and in such infer =incursion.. we’ll likely be the firing line points of this incoming flow..... some  notable weather...@ incoming!!!!!!

In English please.

What are you saying regarding snow for S.E ??

[Marie]

14 minutes ago, Oaks said:

That must be the poodle in them not to like water, labradors normally love water

Yep as I have a Labrador too and she loves water 

[lawrenk]

1 hour ago, Marie said:

Yep me too , my little labradooodle is just 1 years old and not seen snow yet , fingers crossed 

Yes, we’ve got a 15 week old cockapoo. Will be magical if it happens.

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Binsey72 said:

This was posted 5 mins ago 

Shouldn't be too surprised with that update given the 12z UKMO was much more aggressive with the snowfall estimated amounts on its 12z run compared with its 12z run.

That matches quite closely with the GFS/GFSp as well it has to be said.

[tight isobar]

29 minutes ago, craigore said:

In English please.

What are you saying regarding snow for S.E ??

 

29 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

This post was removed

@bundles of-snow for the south east... and dvr..lets av a look at your post easterly analysis pal aye...  keyboard warrior type.. with no input.. on every level.!!!!

Edited February 4, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Comment in quote box removed

[Jason H]

Good to see you in here @tight isobar. Look forwards to your unique takes on things.