South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[gooner265]

5 minutes ago, simonhall6 said:

Who’s the immature one who’s had a play with a green felt tip pen ?

me 

[Speedbird]

6 minutes ago, simonhall6 said:

Who’s the immature one who’s had a play with a green felt tip pen ?

either that or the hulk has been playing with something else

[gooner265]

12 minutes ago, Snow Queen one said:

That met office forcast is pants for my area.  Told my family to be prepared for snow.  Regretting it now.

Maidstone will do fine don't worry , that only goes up to Sunday anyway , thing will change several times before the event.

[Polaris]

If it weren’t lockdown I’d definitely take a drive east on Sunday to Cambs, or Norfolk. 
 

[SLEETY]

What model is that met office forcaster using that is showing rain for the SE part of our region. 

Couldn't make it up, my credibility at work is down the toilet if it turns out be rain in the end, lol

If he is using the gfs model then he is risking his credibility also, lol. 

But I have heard the met don't use gfs in their forecast tools? 

Edited February 4, 2021 by SLEETY

[simonhall6]

Just now, SLEETY said:

What model is that met office forcaster using that is showing rain for the SE part of our region. 

Couldn't make it up, my credibility at work is down the toilet if it turns out be rain in the end, lol

I know I didn’t think any model showed this earlier today 

[lawrenk]

15 minutes ago, simonhall6 said:

Who’s the immature one who’s had a play with a green felt tip pen ?

Looks like the top of Norfolk is screwed.

 

[SHM040519]

Big ECM coming up 

[southbank]

People shouldn’t get hooked up with the placement of potential snow how ever hard that may be as we really are talking about 50 miles here and there which is nothing in the grand scheme of things .

unfortunately how much we want certainty from the NWP it’s really is a now cast situation and radar on the day .

[EJA]

Well I’m pretty sure I’ve just guaranteed no snow down here in Brighton now. As I’ve just spent £32 on two sledges for my children paying extra for delivery Monday instead of waiting until the 10th

[Weather Boy]

3 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

According to CFSV2...The cold coming this weekend is just an Aperitif!

 

Ha ha, -16°C over SE & EA! Bank! 

Very amusing!

[Uxbridge90]

4 minutes ago, southbank said:

People shouldn’t get hooked up with the placement of potential snow how ever hard that may be as we really are talking about 50 miles here and there which is nothing in the grand scheme of things .

unfortunately how much we want certainty from the NWP it’s really is a now cast situation and radar on the day .

Absolutely, we'll have a better idea on Saturday morning with the radar positioning.

[lassie23]

1 hour ago, Timmytour said:

This cold spell could be so good it might even lead to independence for the East Anglians on the regional threads as in other notable years!!!

Was never quite sure which I belongs to when the  south East and the East Anglian regions split.... I always felt a bit like a Cornish nationalist shouting in the wind whenever I suggested a Northern Home Counties thread 

If  they get their own thread there will be 3 post a month in the summer, so just a winter thing would be best lol

Edited February 4, 2021 by lassie23

[alexisj9]

56 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Rain graphics for Kent on Sunday. Wasn’t expecting that
 

Anybody from Bedford Eastwards to EA looks solid for at least a covering Sunday with EA still very much the sweet spot to pick up a good/decent covering. 

I'm think mogreps, or whatever the model the met office use, looks like the 12z GFS, if that is the case, it's not good for us.

[Polaris]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

I'm think mogreps, or whatever the model the met office use, looks like the 12z GFS, if that is the case, it's not good for us.

I was thinking the same, MoGreps possibly siding with the latest GFS run 

[kold weather]

Whatever model they were using was one of the lower resolution global models (you can tell by the resolution of the image), so I wouldn't overly stress about it, they won't have a good enough resolution this far out to have much of a grip of locations of snow/rain.

Besides, the GFS is utterly on its own with the marginal area at the moment.

To put people's minds at some ease, and I admit this is for the 00z suite only, but put of 82 members and other operationals that I reviewed earlier today....7 followed the GFS and were as warm. Or a grand total of about 8-9%! about another 10-15% had a slight milder sector but not enough to make a difference.

I honestly wouldn't be overly stressing about it right now until it becomes established on more than the GFS. If suddenly that number shoots upto 30-40% then be more worried, but 8-9% risk is not something I'm running to the hills and screaming bust about...

Yet!

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[Binsey72]

Well every day since Monday it’s been snow snow and snow for Kent .  Still says snow , will be disappointed not to at least get a fairly good covering !

[Bevbrighton]

8 minutes ago, EJA said:

Well I’m pretty sure I’ve just guaranteed no snow down here in Brighton now. As I’ve just spent £32 on two sledges for my children paying extra for delivery Monday instead of waiting until the 10th

Lived in Woodingdean for 15 years sweet spot for snow in Brighton, now in Peacehaven and will need everything crossed to see anything lay 

[CSC]

1 minute ago, Bevbrighton said:

Lived in Woodingdean for 15 years sweet spot for snow in Brighton, now in Peacehaven and will need everything crossed to see anything lay 

I think you gave a pretty good chance of snow laying (80%), and possibly quite accumulative

[lawrenk]

At the risk of not concentrating on what’s right in front of us, I thought the long range MO forecast was interesting in that they seem more confident about blocked and cold conditions at the end of Feb than they do for the middle of the month. They must be seeing strong signals for High pressure to the north and, what sounds like, easterlies to be that bullish so far out?

Maybe, if we’ve got the stamina, there might be more chances down the line, if this one goes belly up. I’m thinking of my own far SE location on this last point BTW.

[Eagle Eye]

Afternoon Everybody 

How are you, my break's over now that the Chance seems genuine thanks Everybody for the support on my enthusiasm at this time of life it really helps. 

I've just read most of a book that I've got about dynamic meteorology, still slightly confused if you could pm me some information about dynamic meteorology. 

Thanks

Xander

[crazysnowcatz4]

Well I have decided to get the broom and shovel from my shed and bring them indoors. So it had better snow now !

 

[jamesgold]

ECM is going against the GFS here for Sunday, I’d say no reason to panic

[HammerJack]

Very confusing in the mad thread! Will it, won’t it. I’ve never let myself get over excited  yet, after all the let downs. I’m really hoping the ECM comes up trumps! 
question though. Did the UKMO have the mild sector too? I’m struggling to understand what model people are talking about in the mad thread! 

[80sWeather]

1 hour ago, Timmytour said:

This cold spell could be so good it might even lead to independence for the East Anglians on the regional threads as in other notable years!!!

Was never quite sure which I belongs to when the  south East and the East Anglian regions split.... I always felt a bit like a Cornish nationalist shouting in the wind whenever I suggested a Northern Home Counties thread 

Lol yes when you’re on the border of the region it’s a bit like that.