South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS again dumping 20-30cm across east Norfolk and into parts of Suffolk by the end of Monday. Also higher parts of Rutland getting over 20cm. Most seeing a modest covering with 5-10cm widespread.

Expecting an early amber warning perhaps tomorrow for the Norfolk Broads and coastal Norfolk as well as the Waveney valley. The signal is consistent across many models.

The UKMO looks brutal with very little made of less cold air, in fact the model starts to bend with winds north of east by midweek suggesting that snow showers will continue.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[paget]

15 minutes ago, rwtwm said:

Hello everyone, 

I've been lurking on this forum for years and reading the charts for even longer (first got into the weather in the run up the heatwave of 2016). I won't go into too much detail but I received some pretty bad news today, and given the excitement over the coming spell I thought that finally getting involved might help take my mind off of things. 

Obviously there's a range of options for the coming week, but they vary from a decent spell of winter weather to an exceptional one. Here in East London, we are often sheltered from the streamers unless the wind direction is just so, so I'm focusing on both the 'limpet' low on Sunday as it slides away and the first slider under the block as our potential big opportunities. If everything falls just so, this could be a spell to rival 1991 in my memory (my first weather memory). If the easterly orients correctly and the uppers get cold enough for showers to get miles inland it could be even better. 

To the person above in Walthamstow, can I recommend Wanstead Park? It's not too far to walk from there (depending on whereabouts you are) and looks great in most weathers. 

Welcome

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

45 minutes ago, WheresTheSnow said:

That’s what we like to see  

And a Watford Fan! Even better.

 

You orns

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Not great uppers for Kent though - hopefully it just the GFS being the GFS

Its extremely marginal, though the upshot is the milder temps come through during literally the coldest part of the night, these sorts of things can make a material difference with super marginal events.

I suppose marginality will be the price to pay to allow more of the W.parts of the region involved with the snowfall yo a greater degree.

The other thing is we are still far enough out to have minor adjustments which on the macro level son't be huge, but in terms of practical weather it makes a big difference obviously.

[Stu_London]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Its extremely marginal, though the upshot is the milder temps come through during literally the coldest part of the night, these sorts of things can make a material difference with super marginal events.

I suppose marginality will be the price to pay to allow more of the W.parts of the region involved with the snowfall yo a greater degree.

The other thing is we are still far enough out to have minor adjustments which on the macro level son't be huge, but in terms of practical weather it makes a big difference obviously.

The GFS being at the top of the envelope for marginality against the other models is reason for cheer. Although confirmations from the other 12zs would be reassuring. 

Goes to show that while the Macro pattern for the next 5 or so days looks pretty solid. FI for the micro-pattern is pretty much +0.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Stu_London

[Neilsouth]

20 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

ooh ah Cantonaaaa! 

 

Rain in Kent 

[kold weather]

Just now, Stu_London said:

The GFS being at the top of the envelope for marginality against the other models is reason for cheer. Although confirmations from the other 12zs would be reassuring. 

Goes to show that while the Macro pattern for the next 5 or so days looks pretty sold. FI for the micro-pattern is pretty much +0.

Even within 6-12hrs I've seen numerous busts.

One similar event that might be worth looking at is December 2nd 2010. That day saw a LP forming to our SE. Orginally the forecast was basically the same as what we are seeing now, but it actually came in stronger than expected and further west and ended up giving about double the expected totals to many areas further west.

Not too dissimilar to what is expected in our specific part of the world, though the forecasts were a little further east than where it actually ended up:

[lottiekent]

4 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Rain in Kent 

Sounds about right!

 

A very grey day here today, high of 8.4c but no rain yet.

Edited February 4, 2021 by lottiekent

[Jimmyh]

Lets keep calm. The marginal uppers are not there for me its snow from Sunday morning all the way through. Hoping we can keep the faith and try not to micro watch. 

[Chrisover93]

[Chrisover93]

Just now, Chrisover93 said:

Looks good for hampshire southern coastal counites

[winterfreak]

Lol, I thought it was all sorted.. snowmageddon etc etc and lo, it isn’t. You can’t make it up. 

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, winterfreak said:

Lol, I thought it was all sorted.. snowmageddon etc etc and lo, it isn’t. You can’t make it up. 

it'll be alright on the night

[Big Dave]

I know it's just one model... and just one run... and it is only Kent (MBY though!!) but every downgrade starts somewhere with just one model, just one run, just one region... 

I need to move! 

[winterfreak]

Just now, Speedbird said:

it'll be alright on the night

Whilst the eye candy charts have been great to see, I’ll believe it when I see it

[Jimmyh]

Now one thing I will say that is a) the forecast with the Met above only went out to Sunday and its getting colder. The cold weather hasn't even arrived here yet and we are already throwing in the towels. It could well be a 0 hour radar watch as this isn't a finished article yet 

[Mark Bayley]

The GEM take on Sunday. A decentish covering across much of our region (again, parts of East Anglia doing best) 

[Oaks]

I'm new to all this but hasn't the GFS been up and down all week ?

[SLEETY]

I'm giving up if this pans out like gfs, the weather gods don't like us for some reason.

Even the met staring backtracking on latest forrcsst

[Paul Sherman]

SE Essex looking dodgy on those charts as well 

Maybe my 35 months without a dusting is to be extended, would be hilarious if that happened and would tip me over fully to the Mets thinking that Climate change is occuring re rare snowfall events for the SE in future years if we cant get snow from a Scandi Set Up

Edited February 4, 2021 by Paul Sherman

[Delka]

Metoffice showing snow from 9pm Saturday constant til Monday afternoon when it shows occasional snow showers til Tuesday with daytime maxima 0c for a couple days too  

A younger member here so i haven’t had maybe big events in my life, I wasn’t into meteorology and didn’t care for snow in 2010 when it happened so not many memories of snow except brief dustings until 2018 which has been my only clear memory of an easterly for me. 

This winter has already been a good one for me, so the next week will probably take it to my top place in rankings since i started following models and showing more interesting in 2012

[SlimJ]

12 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Lol, I thought it was all sorted.. snowmageddon etc etc and lo, it isn’t. You can’t make it up. 

Taking my tins back for a refund!

Edited February 4, 2021 by SlimJ

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

SE Essex looking dodgy on those charts as well 

Maybe my 35 months without a dusting is to be extended, would be hilarious if that happened and would tip me over fully to the Mets thinking that Climate change is occuring if we cant get snow from a Scandi Set Up

GFS questionable - UKMO steadfast

[Southender]

6 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

SE Essex looking dodgy on those charts as well 

Maybe my 35 months without a dusting is to be extended, would be hilarious if that happened and would tip me over fully to the Mets thinking that Climate change is occuring re rare snowfall events for the SE in future years if we cant get snow from a Scandi Set Up

 

[SLEETY]

Problem is the met are also saying could be rain now or snow. 

In easterly setup SE used to be the coldest place because of shorter sea track across the North Sea, so something up with the climate!!