South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Paul Sherman]

3 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Could be a bit more Paul - the beeb are dragging the continuous band of heavy snow, further and further south with each run - yesterday it was EA and Midlands and today it covers most of our region. 

Yep am going a bit conservative until the High Res models come into view and start to show any streamer events that could set up with favourable wind vectors. Could be a lot more on offer if things are favourable

[Dbarb]

Hope this is better than the " the beast from the east" in 2018, which left many dissapionted due to the wind direction

[fluid dynamic]

 

For sale. Sledge. One careful owner... you know you want one so here she is.... spares or repair £50. Collect only.

[alexisj9]

11 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

So just to put this down and come back to it first part of next week Neil in North Kent is predicting 0.2cm and Ian in Surrey is predicting 1cm.

Will come back to Page 32 next week to see how close your predictions are thanks for those guys 

0cm in Dover, with a tenth added.

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Yep am going a bit conservative until the High Res models come into view and start to show any streamer events that could set up with favourable wind vectors. Could be a lot more on offer if things are favourable

wise words - as nice as the synoptics are looking right now I think i'll hold back on cracking open the bottle of Pomagne 

[Methuselah]

Okay... So we don't have anywhere near the depth of cold that 1987, 1991 or 2018 had, so the huge amounts of snow, many folks had then, seem unlikely (though SSTs might be a tad warmer?). But, someone, somewhere will get a right dumping; 'mainly light' snow showers doesn't mean 'always light' snow showers. And, given subtle wind-shifts, clumping and streaming, one or two favoured spots might end-up being very lucky indeed?!

[Captain Shortwave]

8 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Could be a bit more Paul - the beeb are dragging the continuous band of heavy snow, further and further south with each run - yesterday it was EA and Midlands and today it covers most of our region. 

Best solution I think will be south enough to cover southern counties/London/Essex whilst showers effect areas further north. I am certainly in the mix for a snowy wash streamer given a north easterly wind on Sunday/Monday.

Looking at the models I would put the highest risk currently probably in line from Norwich to Ipswich east where the precipitation will likely be heaviest. This could change of course given it is 3 days away.

[Bogman]

4 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Best solution I think will be south enough to cover southern counties/London/Essex whilst showers effect areas further north. I am certainly in the mix for a snowy wash streamer given a north easterly wind on Sunday/Monday.

Looking at the models I would put the highest risk currently probably in line from Norwich to Ipswich east where the precipitation will likely be heaviest. This could change of course given it is 3 days away.

 

Sounds intriguing Capt'n.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Bogman

[Polaris]

Latest Beeb forecast have pushed snow graphics way east for Sunday. 

Not mirroring Meto warning area at all.

Although she did confirm ‘exact position of any snowfall still uncertain’ 

[Flaked Queen]

@TomSE12 it is compulsory to wear masks and visors at our nursing home and yep for 12 and a half hours but we are all used to It now ... weather wise all I can say is yuck ! What a dank day again ! Snow wise I don’t think my area will see much and if so not sure will settle ! I will take each day as it comes and window/lamppost watch 

[FetchCB]

8 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Best solution I think will be south enough to cover southern counties/London/Essex whilst showers effect areas further north. I am certainly in the mix for a snowy wash streamer given a north easterly wind on Sunday/Monday.

Looking at the models I would put the highest risk currently probably in line from Norwich to Ipswich east where the precipitation will likely be heaviest. This could change of course given it is 3 days away.

Certainly seems to the view of the Arpege Model

[kold weather]

47 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Yuk, NE winds are so much better for all, especially at the strength they are. Thames Streamers are very limited, such as in the case of North winds which scrape the far east of kent

 A ENE wind was what gave the huge snowfalls across most of the SE in Feb 09 due to a thames streamer. Jan 1987 veered between E and ENE. Overnight on Feb 7-8th was a ENE that veered as a LP came into the region.

Historically all of the biggest snow events for the SE have been from a ENE airflow.

Just logically the ENE airflow will cover a larger portion of the entire region than a NE can due to geography anyway.

In no way is a NE better than a ENE for a larger percentage of the population.

 

 

[eastangliawx]

Probably nothing in lowestoft knowing our luck but looking good on the models at the moment ❄

[kold weather]

8 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Latest Beeb forecast have pushed snow graphics way east for Sunday. 

Not mirroring Meto warning area at all.

Although she did confirm ‘exact position of any snowfall still uncertain’ 

I wouldn't even bother looking at the Beeb forecast. Does this look familiar:

Take a look at the ECM at 15z on Sunday and you'll get the EXACT same chart with the same information as the beeb forecasts.

If the ECM is wrong...the beeb is wrong. Simple as that these days. 

It is worth noting that the ECM gives snow quite a bit further west than that around 6am:

So if BBC ran the charts from midnight to 15z you'll see the it is further west in the first place.

[Ian Docwra]

20 minutes ago, fluid dynamic said:

 

For sale. Sledge. One careful owner... you know you want one so here she is.... spares or repair £50. Collect only.

HOW careful, exactly?!

[Polaris]

My take on Sunday. 
 

Think areas further west of that line is 50/50 as to whether ppn gets inland any further before pushing away 

Monday will probably see a better chance for western areas in our region. 

[runboy]

Closer to real time and what a lovely day today, even spring-like in the sun. 

Maybe an old tale, but my mum always said it would warm up before a big cold snap... 

[Biggin]

3 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Thanks SB,

It was a thought that occurred to me, with all this talk of disruptive Snow, some may struggle to get a delivery next Week.

Think I may give it another Day, before warning my Stepson about Snowfall next Week.

He's an Electrician and works for British Gas during the Day and works for another Company, during the Evening, on Emergency call-outs.

Sometimes he doesn't get home, until 4 A.M.

He was telling me the other Day, that his Night-time area includes the Medway Towns, including the Hoo Peninsula, which lies between the Medway and Thames Estuaries. As you can imagine it's very flat and windswept. 

Below, is an image of the aftermath of Blizzard conditions that struck the area, in January 1979:

The photo was taken near the Village of Grain, on the tip of the Hoo Peninsula. Many Cars became stranded and buried, in huge Snowdrifts.

Better not show that to his Mum and frighten her.

The above image is from the Kent County Weather Book and reproduced with the kind permission of Co-Author, Ian Currie.

Regards,

Tom.  

So when is the snow cup starting Tom ??

[SouthLondonCold]

7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

 A ENE wind was what gave the huge snowfalls across most of the SE in Feb 09 due to a thames streamer. Jan 1987 veered between E and ENE. Overnight on Feb 7-8th was a ENE that veered as a LP came into the region.

Historically all of the biggest snow events for the SE have been from a ENE airflow.

Just logically the ENE airflow will cover a larger portion of the entire region than a NE can due to geography anyway.

In no way is a NE better than a ENE for a larger percentage of the population.

 

 

Are we looking at more of an ENE this time round? The 2018 Beast was never too good here in London as the precipitation was too far to the South mainly, so we ended up with 5cm max.

[Vortex3929]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Like Darren I believe there is a lot of scope for that warning to get bumped up the Matrix to an Amber probably around 1030am on Saturday morning when confidence is more apparant and the more Hi Res Models are taken into account.

Weekend warnings at the unlikely matrix stage but with a likely impact. The later warnings have increased confidence in happening though. 

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, Polaris said:

My take on Sunday. 
 

Think areas further west of that line is 50/50 as to whether ppn gets inland any further before pushing away 

Monday will probably see a better chance for western areas in our region. 

Worth noting that nearly all models are west by some way of that line on Sunday morning. Indeed some of the ensembles are *way* west of that, like talking about past IoW west! I think I'll probably close to the western edge of any snowfall, here, but I think reas to my east will do well.

The model support is why the Met office have issued a warning for the whole region for Sunday rather than just the far east.

I think you are right about Monday though, I suspect there will be alot of driving snow showers around at that point.

EDIT - I would say though thats the main zone for heavier snowfall for on Sunday!

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[lawrenk]

50 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

I’m not worried by them yet plenty of time for them to trend south which they normally always do white this sort of set up  

Yes, March 13 was a classic for that. In the days before I was sweating over the low coming too far north and introducing too much mild air. In the end I was just near enough to the coast to scrape a few cms out of it whilst the Channel Islands got absolutely pummelled!

[EML Network]

16 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

Brighton still looks like it's on the edge  these lows from atlantic keep pushing the cold air to north, so annoying, they just keep coming!

Yup I went through all the GFS runs this morning as I had a bit of spare time and most of them had a push of warmer air over quite a large chunk of the South East which would be warm enough to turn any precipitation to rain in the areas the LP covers. 

it would only need a teeny tiny shift south though of these pesky Low pressure so it stays centred over France and doesn't encroach here, but if anything the various runs are bringing these into play more. 

These are the runs from the GFS 06z that would POTENTIALLY ruin any chances of seeing snow falling in the areas the low pressure covers, ESPECIALLY so down here and sadly there is quite a lot of them showing this at some point or another over Sunday and into Monday.

RUN 1 + Uppers 

Run 5 + Uppers

Run 10 + Uppers

Run 13 + Uppers

Run 14 + Uppers

Run 16 + Uppers

Run 20 + Uppers

Run 21 + Uppers

Run 27 + Uppers

Run 30

 

That's far too many runs for my liking, in fact it's exactly 1/3 of them. 

[Stu_London]

4 minutes ago, EML Network said:

Yup I went through all the GFS runs this morning as I had a bit of spare time and most of them had a push of warmer air over quite a large chunk of the South East which would be warm enough to turn any precipitation to rain in the areas the LP covers. 

it would only need a teeny tiny shift south though of these pesky Low pressure so it stays centred over France and doesn't encroach here, but if anything the various runs are bringing these into play more. 

These are the runs from the GFS 06z that would POTENTIALLY ruin any chances of seeing snow falling in the areas the low pressure covers, ESPECIALLY so down here and sadly there is quite a lot of them showing this at some point or another over Sunday and into Monday.

RUN 1 + Uppers 

Run 5 + Uppers

Run 10 + Uppers

Run 13 + Uppers

Run 14 + Uppers

Run 16 + Uppers

Run 20 + Uppers

Run 21 + Uppers

Run 27 + Uppers

Run 30

 

That's far too many runs for my liking, in fact it's exactly 1/3 of them. 

There's a couple in there where we might get away with lower dewpoints off the continent and the short sea track. There are also a couple of absolute shockers that wouldn't even deliver the usual sleet-fest. 

For balance, there are a few members that go a little colder than the op - with everything further south. 

[Southender]

This type of tweet gives me the chills