South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Brassmonkeylily]

I suggest you all view the Met Office 10 day video that  has just come out ..as usual very balanced ...cold for sure from Sunday for us ..how much snow?...of course depends on fine margins ...a relieve from the madness engulfing the model thread!!

 

 

[Uxbridge90]

Superbowl whilst it's snowing? 

[Tom Quintavalle]

8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yep your memory is right Tom.

I would look for what the likes of Paul S was saying who was nearly upstream in a ENE and then yeah I'd come next and then you and Steve would be further downstream. I won't forget the thundersnow from those streamers, was awesome to see!

I am actually still technically downstream on a ENE from your location, its just I'm right at the tail end of any streamer now, and they often just run out of puff in the neighborhood, though looking at some sat.photos from Feb 09, it clearly made it all the way here and further still. 

I'm not expecting much here but I do expect to see some flurries at least.

 

Thanks for your reply, Darren.

I will embarrass you now.

It's your posts, along with our own Chionomaniac and Nick Finnis, Nick Sussex, Singularity, Snowking and John Holmes, that I pay most attention to on the Model Thread. It's a question of sorting the "wheat from the chaff", amongst the  plethora of white noise and hope casting posts,

I would advise any new Members, to do the same.

There's a helluva lot of NW experience in that Septet.

You all make a trip to the Model Thread, bearable!!

QUOTE - WeatherCandy

"Lurker of many years here, please go back to bold font Tom, it's not quite the same!"

Just for you then, WC

Regards,

Tom.  

[throwoff]

Streamers being whispered at in MOD...

[lawrenk]

41 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

One word of caution I would add though, regarding any convective/Streamer activity, would be the following:

Can't remember the Winter Season but the METO had a Severe Weather Warning out for heavy prolonged Snow Showers, for the East of Essex and Mid/East Kent, on a strong N.E. flow.

Convection didn't fire in the Southern North Sea, though.

An overhang of cloud from a Front over N.E. France, scuppered any chance of Snow Showers forming, and it remained bone dry!!

Do any Members remember that bust?

Regards,

Tom. 

 

Hi Tom.

If I’m thinking of the same one it was either December 09 or December 10, just before Christmas, because E Sx was also included in the warning for 5 to 10 cms.

I remember it well as I took my daughter to the pantomime in the afternoon convinced that when we came out it would be snowing heavily and, as you say, sod all!

[Flaked Queen]

56 minutes ago, Wynter said:

So many conflicting reports of whats happening here in the SE this weekend. Some getting really excited and some tempering it with mild sectors and rain.

Something tells me there are a lot in here that haven't really got a clue.

Some of us do have a clue and others don’t that’s all part of the fun of being a community 

[Brassmonkeylily]

watch the Met Office 10day trend ... now they do know what they are talking about 

[bluearmy]

Everyone remember- don’t tell anyone!!!!

[Tom Quintavalle]

10 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Hi Tom.

If I’m thinking of the same one it was either December 09 or December 10, just before Christmas, because E Sx was also included in the warning for 5 to 10 cms.

I remember it well as I took my daughter to the pantomime in the afternoon convinced that when we came out it would be snowing heavily and, as you say, sod all!

Hi Lawren,

You could well be right but as I stated, my memory fails me!!

But as it was a N.E. flow, it's effect here in S.E. London would've been negligible, and we weren't included in that Severe Weather Warning, anyway.

It has to be E.N.E. up here!!

Apologies to all but I prefer the Bold Font too. I can actually see it!!

Regards,

Tom. 

Edited February 3, 2021 by TomSE12

[lawrenk]

12 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Hi Lawren,

You could well be right but as I stated, my memory fails me!!

But as it was a N.E. flow, it's effect here in S.E. London would've been negligible, and we weren't included in that Severe Weather Warning, anyway.

It has to be E.N.E. up here!!

Apologies to all but I prefer the Bold Font too. I can actually see it!!

Regards,

Tom. 

Yes, ENE or NE for my neck of the woods. I’m normally too far south for “streamers”’ from a straight easterly or ESE. 

It’s funny, sometimes I wonder if it wouldn’t be better to go back to the pre internet days where the only way you knew about a forthcoming cold spell was from a BBC forecast from a Michael Fish or Ian McCaskill. Would be a lot less of an emotional rollercoaster!

[Snowy Bob]

Can I say it?

Is the fabled Kent Clipper a possibility if any low comes in off the continent on Sunday into Monday?

[jamesgold]

1 hour ago, Uxbridge90 said:

Superbowl whilst it's snowing? 

Ahhhh too good don’t get me excited

[lottiekent]

33 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Everyone remember- don’t tell anyone!!!!

Somebody mentioned the s word on a team chat at work yesterday...I was very dismissive. Didn’t want to Jinx it all by telling people!!

[lottiekent]

8 minutes ago, Snowy Bob said:

Can I say it?

Is the fabled Kent Clipper a possibility if any low comes in off the continent on Sunday into Monday?

Trying so hard not to be excited about the prospects for us down here. Mainly so the let down isn’t as great (especially after the last few weekend washouts)

I keep telling myself I won’t look on here all day then find myself having this thread open on a tab alongside my work all day!

[Tom Quintavalle]

54 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Some of us do have a clue and others don’t that’s all part of the fun of being a community 

In other news

S.Q., how come you're allowed to wear a Face Mask?

Like you my Wife was a Senior Carer, a few miles down the road from here in Chislehurst.

In her BUPA owned Residential Care Home, Colette was told by her Manageress that we can't wear Face Masks, as it will frighten the Residents. Another Member of Staff told Colette, "Don't worry we're in a bubble here, and won't get affected."

Sadly, that "bubble" soon burst, when 3 Residents died from Covid related, Pneumonia, in the space of 2 Weeks.

Below is an image of my good Lady, writing up a Care Plan, a few Months before she had to give up her job:

Unfortunately, Colette had to give up her job back in the Summer, as she suffers from Fibromyalgia and Psoriatic Arthritis and as  Psoriasis is an AutoImmune disease, contracting CV could be very dangerous for her, as she would more than likely suffer a Cytokine Storm, whereby her Immune System would go into overdrive and attack all the soft tissue in her body, more aggressively than it's already doing.

Anyway, I don't think she owes that BUPA Care Home anything. She worked there for 10 Years, for a pittance, and still didn't receive her £5 Amazon Gift Voucher, Christmas Box, she was promised but let's just pay Care Workers, in claps!!

Her Christmas Box, was a nasty bout of Norovirus, on Boxing Day.

Right, I'll get off my Soapbox now and get back On Topic.

During the Beast From The East event in 2018, I had to spend a couple of Days/Nights at the Care Home with Colette, as Cab Drivers refused to enter our Close, as it turns to sheet ice after any Snowfall. She couldn't use Public Transport, as it didn't get her to work early enough. Her early Morning shift, started at 6.45 A.M.

Regards,

Tom 

Edited February 3, 2021 by TomSE12

[Kentspur]

2 hours ago, Darkcloud said:

Crappy BBC south east forecast just now...said the low looks to bump the snow away from us and keep it further north....☹

Still, it's the beeb and I can't take their forecasts seriously since they stopped using MO

BBC London was better but did stress uncertainty showed snow as per the app Sunday and Tuesday

[Daniel*]

If the SE can’t get anything out of this it’s time to find a new hobby quite frankly. 

[yamkin]

 

[Crepuscular Ray]

38 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Yes, ENE or NE for my neck of the woods. I’m normally too far south for “streamers”’ from a straight easterly or ESE. 

It’s funny, sometimes I wonder if it wouldn’t be better to go back to the pre internet days where the only way you knew about a forthcoming cold spell was from a BBC forecast from a Michael Fish or Ian McCaskill. Would be a lot less of an emotional rollercoaster!

I can't see anything more than sleet happening here on Sunday morning (I'm also in Hailsham at the moment). If anything more wintry does fall, the ground is so soggy, it will melt.

[lawrenk]

5 minutes ago, Crepuscular Ray said:

I can't see anything more than sleet happening here on Sunday morning (I'm also in Hailsham at the moment). If anything more wintry does fall, the ground is so soggy, it will melt.

That’s one thing I’m not worried about to be honest. Snow can lay on puddles if the conditions are right.

[Paul Sherman]

Evening Chaps and Chapessess

Have had a nice 10 day break but will be around for the latter part of the weekend onwards to enjoy the radar watching and to report on any streamers that set up.

Have been watching Scandi cool off these past 2 weeks and my posts from Mid Jan did say to watch the area to our North East admittedly I thought the last few days of January but 1 week off wasnt bad in the end.

A couple of things still worrying me about longevity of the spell, firstly on other notable spells we usually have a good week of ground frosts and freezing fog to freeze up the surface but this time it looks like snow will fall onto muddy and wet soil which could make the snowpack struggle to stay around as long as it should so my advice is if the models continue with the southwards shift with Saturday into sundays risk is to go out and enjoy it sunday afternoon as there are a couple of models showing a milder wedge that could turn it marginal from Sunday night into Monday night. But the good news is it looks like a renewed push of better uppers comes in from Tuesday into Thursday for round 2.

There will in the end be a pest from the west trying to break the stubborn block down and that could again be fun and games but that is way too far ahead to worry about at this time.

Will be great to count this down as we now have absolute model agreement on the coldest spell of the winter ahead

[chionomaniac]

How quickly can cold nights freeze the warmer soil temps? With snow cover? I really don’t know because the insulating effect of snowcover can work both ways.

[Paul Sherman]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

How quickly can cold nights freeze the warmer soil temps? With snow cover? I really don’t know because the insulating effect of snowcover can work both ways.

A very good question Ed

One thing is for sure the night time temps being progged could get down to double digit minuses in places over snowcover so frigid cold. Add in the strength of the wind which could make a +1c temp feel like -10c early next week

Looking forward to it

[Speedbird]

6 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Evening Chaps and Chapessess

Have had a nice 10 day break but will be around for the latter part of the weekend onwards to enjoy the radar watching and to report on any streamers that set up.

Have been watching Scandi cool off these past 2 weeks and my posts from Mid Jan did say to watch the area to our North East admittedly I thought the last few days of January but 1 week off wasnt bad in the end.

A couple of things still worrying me about longevity of the spell, firstly on other notable spells we usually have a good week of ground frosts and freezing fog to freeze up the surface but this time it looks like snow will fall onto muddy and wet soil which could make the snowpack struggle to stay around as long as it should so my advice is if the models continue with the southwards shift with Saturday into sundays risk is to go out and enjoy it sunday afternoon as there are a couple of models showing a milder wedge that could turn it marginal from Sunday night into Monday night. But the good news is it looks like a renewed push of better uppers comes in from Tuesday into Thursday for round 2.

There will in the end be a pest from the west trying to break the stubborn block down and that could again be fun and games but that is way too far ahead to worry about at this time.

Will be great to count this down as we now have absolute model agreement on the coldest spell of the winter ahead

if we don't get something out of this i'm finding a new hobby !!

[Paul Sherman]

Just now, Speedbird said:

if we don't get something out of this i'm finding a new hobby !!

Yep agree with that 100%

35 long months must surely be under fire now lol