South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Snipper]

46 minutes ago, Bogman said:

Nope sorry lass, can't get any innuendo from that.  

Uncalled for response?

[jamesgold]

Well word from MOD thread and twitter it seems the ECM rolling out now should be good for our region on Sunday , improvement on last ECM and GFS

 

this picture here looks great for snow coming in at the correct angle

Edited February 3, 2021 by jamesgold
Added photo

[Laurence Hill]

ECM 96 has the jackpot >>> London / Kent /  EA /  Suffolk !
BOOM
@TheSnowDreamer @ogriff79 @Meopham_Weather

 

From one SM, now I can believe it!

[Chrisover93]

1 minute ago, Laurence Hill said:

ECM 96 has the jackpot >>> London / Kent /  EA /  Suffolk !
BOOM
@TheSnowDreamer @ogriff79 @Meopham_Weather

 

From one SM, now I can believe it!

southern coastal too??

 

[winterfreak]

It’s like pulling teeth trying to get the clean flow to Kent without risk of marginality or mild sectors though. For God’s sake.. 

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, winterfreak said:

It’s like pulling teeth trying to get the clean flow to Kent without risk of marginality or mild sectors though. For God’s sake.. 

Mild sector ? You mean the sector showing -4 uppers in an easterly flow ?

No marginality there i'd have thought. All snow.

[Darkcloud]

I'm seriously dubious after the last few disappointments but also really hopeful! I'm also really encouraged by @chionomaniac posting frequently in here....( thanks Chiono, your input is invaluable)

Keeping everything crossed!

[winterfreak]

3 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

Mild sector ? You mean the sector showing -4 uppers in an easterly flow ?

No marginality there i'd have thought. All snow.

I know it’s probably good enough but it’s not exactly -8/-10 which would reassure me much more

add to that we’re very close to the Southern extent of said cold  

Edited February 3, 2021 by winterfreak

[jamesgold]

That ‘mild’ sector will be snow and it’s certainly much lower temps by the next day anyway (it gets all the way down to -12 in the space of one day ), and don’t take precipitation charts seriously I can’t imagine there won’t be that few showers south of east anglia 

Edited February 3, 2021 by jamesgold
Added photo

[fluid dynamic]

Party hats are on everywhere

But who remembers "that failed easterly?" I'm optimistic about this one, despite breaking two kids sledges a couple of weeks ago, i bet we wont get new ones in time... 

If this forecast goes bust we're looking at a lot of self harming

 

[Mark]

The most recent charts are epic, but my cautious side is holding me back for now. Too much to lose! 

[Speedbird]

9 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

I know it’s probably good enough but it’s not exactly -8/-10 which would reassure me much more

I respect and understand that - i'd be very surprised if it would be anything other than snow.

Let's hope it disappears altogether on subsequent runs then we won't have to worry at all 

[winterfreak]

Just now, Speedbird said:

I respect and understand that - i'd be very surprised if it would be anything other than snow.

Let's hope it disappears altogether on subsequent runs then we won't have to worry at all 

It’s just been a let down so many times. When it goes right we are well placed for some of the best snowfall totals, but it’s soooo difficult to get it all to fall into place I remember well January 87, Feb 91 and so on up on the North Downs. I also remember the virtually snowless 1990’s and dismal 2000’s. If this current setup corrected a couple hundred miles South I’d be more than happy to sit back and comfortably enjoy how it will unfold but, again, it’s too close for comfort at this stage

[kold weather]

Ok so based on the latest models:

1: Sunday increasingly looking more interesting, the models do seem to be bringing the frontal area further south during Saturday night which opens up a legitimate chance for a widespread frontal snow event to kick things of. Better odds into East Anglia and northern Home counties though

2: Probably snow showers coming in afterwards.

3: There appears moderate confidence for there to a be a mild sector around which will turn things much more marginal, espcecially around the coasts. Maybe sleet and coastal rain showers for a time on Monday afternoon further east.

4: Once through some point on Monday winds turn colder. There maybe some divergence over our area which could cap shower activity somewhat, but too early to tell and streamers could well break any weak cap anyway.

5: Some degree of confidence of some sort of attack from the SW/W. This area would be far better served if it came up from the SW. If it comes in too much lined W-E as per the ECM, this area is going to struggle mightly unless it arrives overnight as winds ahead will turn SSW in such a situation and bring the milder air from the channel over the region.  If it comes in with a more slanted angle, then that keeps winds SE and we are game on.

However No.5 is such a long way out no point in really overly worrying about it.

[Captain Shortwave]

Personally I think that earlier system will be a little weaker and as such will likely see less cold air. Still at this point snow forecasting from organised systems can always vary from model to model and certain biases can given different results with the exact same parameters.

For example the Arpege when dealing with cold/dry air masses can say it will snow with 850s above freezing (very unlikely and you are more likely to see freezing rain), and has done this on a couple of recent frontal systems. Likewise others can state rain when snow will really fall.

The middle of next week looks interesting with potential frontal boundaries across the far south and also potentially some even colder air being dragged from the continent instead of from the Baltic.

Edited February 3, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[jamesgold]

How far south would that low on Sunday realistically get? It’s been trending further south but surely it can’t go much further given the unusual pattern? I don’t know though... is there a theoretical reason it shouldn’t go further south?

[Darkcloud]

Crappy BBC south east forecast just now...said the low looks to bump the snow away from us and keep it further north....☹

Still, it's the beeb and I can't take their forecasts seriously since they stopped using MO

[eddie1]

1 minute ago, Darkcloud said:

Crappy BBC south east forecast just now...said the low looks to bump the snow away from us and keep it further north....☹

Still, it's the beeb and I can't take their forecasts seriously since they stopped using MO

They won't be using the latest chars they will be from the poor run for us yesterday before it changed and had us back in the game 

[Flaked Queen]

Good Old fashioned lamppost watching guys ! Good Times were had then 

[Froze were the Days]

58 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

Mild sector ? You mean the sector showing -4 uppers in an easterly flow ?

No marginality there i'd have thought. All snow.

Well I've seen a chart from Kold Weather that suggests otherwise at 144z, I'd think if you're on the coast like I am a bit iffy but inland a better chance and anyway the next day colder 850 uppers come back in from the continent so maybe a marginal situation turning back to snow. That's if the ecm is anywhere near accurate.

Edited February 3, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[Tom Quintavalle]

1 hour ago, kold weather said:

The ideal direction tends to be a ENE, especially if your south of the Thames, though an easterly is fine and ESE is ok for S.Essex and if the conveciton is strong enough that can spread to the other side of the Estuary once past the QE2 bridge as the river is narrower anyway past there so has less impact.

Some of my best experiences were from Thames streamers back in the day, had some great ones in Feb 2005 and also Feb 2006. Sadly I wasn't around to experience the FEb 09 monster being down the south coast, but I came back a weeks later to still see a sizeable number of drifts, etc.

Evening all,

Getting excited?

Darren, why can't you live back in Grays/Thurrock (if memory serves)!!

When I first joined NW as TomSE20 (Anerley), yourself and Steve M., (Bexleyheath), were directly upwind of me during "Thames Streamer" events.

If you were both reporting falling Snow, I would look towards  Shooters Hill, from my balcony and see the telltale "orange glow", heading towards me, around 25 Miles WSW of you and around half that distance, WSW of Steve M. I knew within a few minutes Snow would start to fall.

When I moved in with my Fiancee (now Wife), up to Lee in 2006, although I lost a bit of elevation, I remain firmly in the Thames Corridor, and therefore still in the "Thames Streamer" Zone.

Ah February 2005, what an amazing spell of Northern Blocking that was!! Wasn't that around the time that the infamous Ian Brown stated we'd never see the like of it again, due to the G.I.N. (Greenland/Iceland/Norway), being "too busy", during the Winter Months.

But I recorded, nearly 14 consecutive Days of falling Snow (albeit mostly in flurry form).

I'm pretty sure even the '62/'63 Winter, didn't record that number of consecutive Days of falling Snow? 

There were a couple of very decent "Thames Streamer" events, and had soil temperatures not been so high after a mild start to Winter and the source Region of E.Europe/W.Russia been colder, the resulting depth of Snow would've been greater, than occurred.

If memory serves, Snow didn't settle immediately but once the Streamer set in and got heavier, the Snow soon settled. The Streamers lasted around 6 hours in total and if settling Snow had been instant, the 2 inch fall would've no doubt been doubled.

Below, are the 500hPa and 850hPa Archive charts, of the 2 "Thames Streamer" events.

                                       Monday 21st February 2005

  

                                         Friday 25th February 2005     

 

You can see from those 850 Charts that the Upper Air wasn't desperately cold, as the source Region wasn't either.

But a fascinating event all the same, more so for those incredible Synoptics appearing out of nowhere!!

Below, is MeteoGroup's version of the Meto's 10 Day trend, courtesy of Susan Powell.

But remember it's based on the 00z ECM, which prolonged the Wintry Weather more than the 12z ECM does!!

Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather

Regards,

Tom.  

Edited February 3, 2021 by TomSE12

[Seasonal Trim]

So many conflicting reports of whats happening here in the SE this weekend. Some getting really excited and some tempering it with mild sectors and rain.

Something tells me there are a lot in here that haven't really got a clue.

[Tom Quintavalle]

One word of caution I would add though, regarding any convective/Streamer activity, would be the following:

Can't remember the Winter Season but the METO had a Severe Weather Warning out for heavy prolonged Snow Showers, for the East of Essex and Mid/East Kent, on a strong N.E. flow.

Convection didn't fire in the Southern North Sea, though.

An overhang of cloud from a Front over N.E. France, scuppered any chance of Snow Showers forming, and it remained bone dry!!

Do any Members remember that bust?

Regards,

Tom. 

 

[WeatherCandy]

2 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

One word of caution I would add though, regarding any convective/Streamer activity, would be the following:

Can't remember the Winter Season but the METO had a Severe Weather Warning out for heavy prolonged Snow Showers, for the East of Essex and Mid/East Kent, on a strong N.E. flow.

Convection didn't fire in the Southern North Sea, though.

An overhang of cloud from a Front over N.E. France, scuppered any chance of Snow Showers forming, and it remained bone dry!!

Do any Members remember that bust?

Regards,

Tom. 

 

Lurker of many years here, please go back to bold font Tom, it's not quite the same! 

[kold weather]

21 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Evening all,

Getting excited?

Darren, why can't you live back in Grays/Thurrock (if memory serves)!!

When I first joined NW as TomSE20 (Anerley), yourself and Steve M., (Bexleyheath), were directly upwind of me during "Thames Streamer" events.

If you were both reporting falling Snow, I would look towards  Shooters Hill, from my balcony and see the telltale "orange glow", heading towards me, around 25 Miles WSW of you and around half that distance, WSW of Steve M. I knew within a few minutes Snow would start to fall.

Yep your memory is right Tom.

I would look for what the likes of Paul S was saying who was nearly upstream in a ENE and then yeah I'd come next and then you and Steve would be further downstream. I won't forget the thundersnow from those streamers, was awesome to see!

I am actually still technically downstream on a ENE from your location, its just I'm right at the tail end of any streamer now, and they often just run out of puff in the neighborhood, though looking at some sat.photos from Feb 09, it clearly made it all the way here and further still. 

I'm not expecting much here but I do expect to see some flurries at least.