South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Polaris]

23 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

Hot off the press.....looks much more encouraging for those in the SE. 

 

Such a well thought out public Weather Forecast.

Huge props to the Met office for allowing even the non weather bod to get an idea of what could happen this weekend into next week. 
 

BBC take note, your forecasts are all over the place from one presenter to the next!! 

[lawrenk]

28 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

Hot off the press.....looks much more encouraging for those in the SE. 

 

Yes, that’s pretty much as good as we could hope for. Indicates to me that there may still be some further corrections southwards to come which would be even better.

[Badgers01]

Also thought the way they mentioned in the MO forecast that this was no 2018 BFTE may help to temper expectations 

[Speedbird]

12 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Also thought the way they mentioned in the MO forecast that this was no 2018 BFTE may help to temper expectations 

Good luck with that one in here 

[Speedbird]

This should steady some nerves

[Speedbird]

Absolute filth

[Downpour]

18 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Also thought the way they mentioned in the MO forecast that this was no 2018 BFTE may help to temper expectations 

Have they looked at their own model at T96? Quite something. 

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

This should steady some nerves

Only if the low to the west move SE lol.

[shackletonexplorer]

Took this shot of my house back in 2010 - very much hoping for more of the same (although sadly I don't live in the same place anymore). We had 15 inches on the ground in that storm.

[Speedbird]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Only if the low to the west move SE lol.

Every chance it will - next 48/72 hours will be telling

[Speedbird]

6 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Only if the low to the west move SE lol.

Almost perfect

[Downpour]

29 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Such a well thought out public Weather Forecast.

Huge props to the Met office for allowing even the non weather bod to get an idea of what could happen this weekend into next week. 
 

BBC take note, your forecasts are all over the place from one presenter to the next!! 

Superb forecast which explains the set up well without dumbing down a la the BBC, and much better graphics. 

ITV should just run these forecasts as is, and put the Beeb to shame! 

[Coopsy]

30 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Yes, that’s pretty much as good as we could hope for. Indicates to me that there may still be some further corrections southwards to come which would be even better.

 

30 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Also thought the way they mentioned in the MO forecast that this was no 2018 BFTE may help to temper expectations 

I think it’s looking positive.  Temper it , it might but the possibility is there for the next weeks events.

It could range from a few cm’s for many from convective showers right through to big convective streamers with possible trough formations and even a channel low if everything aligns. (assuming things don’t go pear shaped at the last minute which it has done many times) 

Heres a great article by Jo Farrow which explains predominantly sea effect snow which affects the SE. She touches on trough and low formations in this type of set up too. 

Again this is all conjecture at this time but something that might happen if everything falls into place. 

Sea Effect Snow - the UK version of Lake Effect snow. Very cold air across the North Sea

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

Very cold easterly flow, found when a high pressure sits over Scandinavia and brings air to the UK from Siberia. If conditions are right, significant snow can result.

 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Coopsy

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, Badgers01 said:

A four day cold spell with the mean below zero and say 3 mornings of lying snow would be a pretty good cold spell - I am not sure where people are seeing anything more than that - I live hearing the recollections of winters past not sure this period will be a match to them though ! ? 

Tend to agree with you, wise to be realistic and I don’t totally believe any snow forecast in the UK nowadays, unless I see it falling It’s unlikely to be a severe or lengthy spell, but 4-5 days of cold and snow chances is pretty good for SE England. 

Meanwhile, here in Prague it’s a proper  rank London-style winters day, quite heavy rain and 9°C, with weather warnings for strong, possibly damaging winds overnight.

[kold weather]

12z GFS is similar to the 00z ECM in that it brings a wrap around warm sector into the SE.

Its *just* about cold enough for it to still snow for most, but its very borderline indeed! The 00z ECM was rain, the 12z GFS looks just about good enough for snow, though I'd say those on coasts would struggle in such a flow.

The flow afterwards is amazingly unstable though, would see widespread snow showers after that marginal period on Monday, Tuesday in particular looked very snowy on that GFS run.

 

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, Weather Wonder said:

I would imagine that the models aren’t taking into account snowcover which would help bring the temperature down a degree or two, and of course evaporative cooling in any of the beefier showers that make it inland.

 

Another point that is well worth considering and we have seen this in easterlies in the past, is that the models tend to struggle with this kind of setup and default with bringing the Atlantic through, I fully expect that they have got this wrong for the time being and will keep getting pushed back into FI with potential upgrades in the short term to the severity of the cold and features which will appear at short notice.

Fingers crossed for that. If there some ice days with the snow, then it’s an entirely different (and much more fun) experience

[Eagle Eye]

Small UFO like structure with something that 5 minutes ago resembled a funnel cloud and the shape of the cloud when it was in full veiw resembelles a small rfd which I imagine is possible and what can create a funnel cloud occasionally on these Winter Months which have been very connective. 

[Speedbird]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

12z GFS is similar to the 00z ECM in that it brings a wrap around warm sector into the SE.

Its *just* about cold enough for it to still snow for most, but its very borderline indeed! The 00z ECM was rain, the 12z GFS looks just about good enough for snow, though I'd say those on coasts would struggle in such a flow.

The flow afterwards is amazingly unstable though, would see widespread snow showers after that marginal period on Monday, Tuesday in particular looked very snowy on that GFS run.

 

Yes, appears to be somewhat troublesome but there should be enough cold 850's to mix out the warm sector and produce snow

[claret047]

1 hour ago, moogyboobles said:

Ooh, it's quite possible you were at school with my dad then. 


My first snow story would be 1979, when my mum used to tell about when I was born it always starts with how they were knee deep in snow outside St. Johns. 
I don't think I am being biased thinking I had quite a snowy childhood, compared to my children's time.

 

Hello there.

Did your father attend what was then known as Westlands Secondary Modern, but today is called Hylands School?

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

Yes, appears to be somewhat troublesome but there should be enough cold 850's to mix out the warm sector and produce snow

To be fair its still far from certain there even will be a warm sector, the 12z ECM will probably be helpful to see on that front since if both it and the GFS agree on its existence I'd go along with it.

However even then the key will be the wind direction. If we get unlucky it may well lead to somewhat too marginal conditions through the estuary and along the coasts. If it ends up like the 12z GFS there maybe a very small window during Monday afternoon where its on the wrong side.

BUT

There is so much instability on the GFS that you'd be seeing plenty of snow showers either side, so I'm not overly concerned about it.

The 12z GEM is exceptionally snowy considering how much precip it has and given its a global model.

[Eagle Eye]

Used my new camera for the first time taking a proper weather photo of the lovely sunset that brought out the countryside of Kent

[lawrenk]

I’m probably being unduly pessimistic but, for a relatively small group of us near the channel (I’m about 10 miles inland), I just have a bit of a sinking feeling about this, despite the seemingly brilliant synoptics. I just fear some of us may be too far south and not quite far enough east to benefit from any shower activity and then the wrong side of marginal for any attack from the west. 

If anyone has some words of encouragement that would be much appreciated!

[Froze were the Days]

Fingers crossed we go down the UKMO path...looks better in the extended as well - past D6, makes less of that low to the south east and we import cold east to north easterlies and then a slider to our south at D6. 

[snowrye]

2 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

I’m probably being unduly pessimistic but, for a relatively small group of us near the channel (I’m about 10 miles inland), I just have a bit of a sinking feeling about this, despite the seemingly brilliant synoptics. I just fear some of us may be too far south and not quite far enough east to benefit from any shower activity and then the wrong side of marginal for any attack from the west. 

If anyone has some words of encouragement that would be much appreciated!

Words of encouragement would be, it's still a few day's away, much will change in that time, and the old cliche, more runs needed lol

[Tom Jarvis]

 @nick sussex which model would that be? Have asked in here as it isn’t appropriate for the mod thread