South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Mal_UK]

Rather windy out tonight! 

[andymcpool]

37 minutes ago, Mal Kapadia said:

Rather windy out tonight! 

Couple of impressing gusts! No curries involved

[Stu_London]

Still very much in the game for our region after todays runs. 

I think there still a chance that it could go wrong, a la 12z GFS, but the 18z ensembles  seem to suggest that threat is diminishing. 

If tomorrows models continue in the same vein, then I think it would take something extraordinary (but not completely unprecedented) for us not to get at least a 4 or 5 day cold spell with the chance of some snow. Then it will become a case of looking at the hi res models for PPN distribution. 

Here's hoping that tomorrows models continue to move towards locking this in. 

Looks like the Beeb and Met office are on board which is good as they will sit on the fence for as long as possible. 

 

[Mizzle]

Some great UKMO and GFS runs this morning: things looking more positive for southern cold fans ❄

Edited February 3, 2021 by Mizzle

[Jimmyh]

So here we go unbelievable ramping going on in MAD thread. Still not close enough for is to get massively excited as events like this are like hens teeth. I will sit on the fence till tomorrow evenings runs 

[Speedbird]

ECM 0z @ 144

Absolute belter for the south east - we're going to get buried

[NO LONGER POSTING]

4 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

ECM 0z @ 144

Absolute belter for the south east - we're going to get buried

Certainly eye brow has raised this morning.. But we need to be sat in our seats till at least friday.. 

Firming up the cold spell now but details we won't know till 24hrs out.. 

With a chart like that... Snow showers would be Pilling in a pushing very fair inland probably more organised snow as well.. 

This won't be marginal or wet snow.. It will be dry powdery drifting snow as the air is very cold and dry.. 

Could be quite a historic cold spell if it comes off

[Jimmyh]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

Certainly eye brow has raised this morning.. But we need to be sat in our seats till at least friday.. 

Firming up the cold spell now but details we won't know till 24hrs out.. 

With a chart like that... Snow showers would be Pilling in a pushing very fair inland probably more organised snow as well.. 

This won't be marginal or wet snow.. It will be dry powdery drifting snow as the air is very cold and dry.. 

Could be quite a historic cold spell if it comes off

Absolutely % we have seen numerous easterlies fail. But somehow I do have a sneaky feeling this could be epic. NETWEATHER be showing snow all day Sunday lets see how the ECM fairs about 9.30am

[Speedbird]

4 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

Absolutely % we have seen numerous easterlies fail. But somehow I do have a sneaky feeling this could be epic. NETWEATHER be showing snow all day Sunday lets see how the ECM fairs about 9.30am

ECM 0z already out

GFS out @ 9.30

[stainesbloke]

9 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Certainly eye brow has raised this morning.. But we need to be sat in our seats till at least friday.. 

Firming up the cold spell now but details we won't know till 24hrs out.. 

With a chart like that... Snow showers would be Pilling in a pushing very fair inland probably more organised snow as well.. 

This won't be marginal or wet snow.. It will be dry powdery drifting snow as the air is very cold and dry.. 

Could be quite a historic cold spell if it comes off

Yes, looking more and more likely that the UK will see a very wintry spell. Has a feel of February 1991 to me, a classic never to be forgotten. Enjoyed that spell immensely. Fingers crossed for you all

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Its almost the perfect setup for snow in the South and East.. more so the further East you go..

 

With all kinds of kinks, fronts, troughs, etc etc in the flow with added pushes from the west trying to bump into the cold .. if it does verify then most places would see snow with some seeing something exceptional I would have thought.. 

 

Maybe a careful what you wish for though.. With many of us suffering from lockdown and a world leading vaccination program going on.. While we love snow and cold there are certainly "bigger" issues at hand. Snow and cold would and has hammered the vaccine program this week further north. 

 

[Number 23]

Just now, stainesbloke said:

Yes, looking more and more likely that the UK will see a very wintry spell. Has a feel of February 1991 to me, a classic never to be forgotten. Enjoyed that spell immensely. Fingers crossed for you all

I was thinking 91 this morning, my favourite cold spell and arriving about the same time! I wasn't fussed on an easterly unless it was the real deal, this seems to be exactly that. 

I was convinced we'd see downgrades after some patchy output for our region, but I think we're getting very close to being able to say it's on IMO. 

I think once we're in agreement at +72 I'll finally feel comfortable

[NO LONGER POSTING]

2 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Yes, looking more and more likely that the UK will see a very wintry spell. Has a feel of February 1991 to me, a classic never to be forgotten. Enjoyed that spell immensely. Fingers crossed for you all

I wasn't born then lol!!! I remember 2010 and also 2018.

 

2018 I remember better only because stupidly my site manager at the time wanted me to lay some slabs for a patio.. I told him and my teacher on site also backed me up at the time that it wont work as cement doesn't bond correctly in sub zero temps... 

Anyway.. I was in Marlow its quite high above sea level there.. in 2018 mixing cement up in the sub zero temps and the water bucket I was using to mix up with was freezing before I put the water in the mixer!!!! 

[stainesbloke]

2 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

I was thinking 91 this morning, my favourite cold spell and arriving about the same time! I wasn't fussed on an easterly unless it was the real deal, this seems to be exactly that. 

I was convinced we'd see downgrades after some patchy output for our region, but I think we're getting very close to being able to say it's on IMO. 

I think once we're in agreement at +72 I'll finally feel comfortable

Agree, still quite a few days out so nothing is anywhere near certain at this stage. Exciting charts though, for sure and if they come off as shown, well.....just post loads of pics, everyone

[stainesbloke]

5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I wasn't born then lol!!! I remember 2010 and also 2018.

 

2018 I remember better only because stupidly my site manager at the time wanted me to lay some slabs for a patio.. I told him and my teacher on site also backed me up at the time that it wont work as cement doesn't bond correctly in sub zero temps... 

Anyway.. I was in Marlow its quite high above sea level there.. in 2018 mixing cement up in the sub zero temps and the water bucket I was using to mix up with was freezing before I put the water in the mixer!!!! 

Haha, sounds grim having to do that in the freezing cold. Did your site manager eat humble pie?!

I was 17 in February 1991, and my morning paper round on my bike was absolute hell lol, felt like I nearly got hypothermia, will never forget how cold it was. But then, what a day to follow.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

3 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Haha, sounds grim having to do that in the freezing cold. Did your site manager eat humble pie?!

I was 17 in February 1991, and my morning paper round on my bike was absolute hell lol, felt like I nearly got hypothermia, will never forget how cold it was. But then, what a day to follow.

He did after when they all didn't bond and came up the next few days LOL 

[Number 23]

I was ten years old in 91 living near Brentwood, remember looking out of the window in disbelief as the showers just kept packing in.

The thing that struck me about it, and something I've loved about major events since, was how quiet and calm everything went as the snow piled up. Felt like the world had stopped

@stainesbloke can't see paperboys being allowed out in that level of cold now made of sterner stuff back then. 

[Oaks]

Remember '91 I was 12 and  we lived near a park that had a good sized hill. Me and my brothers were going down it on our sledges then one of my brother's friend turned up with huge inflatable ring that could fit all of us sitting on it. We spent the next few days on that hill. Great times 

[Kentspur]

17 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Haha, sounds grim having to do that in the freezing cold. Did your site manager eat humble pie?!

I was 17 in February 1991, and my morning paper round on my bike was absolute hell lol, felt like I nearly got hypothermia, will never forget how cold it was. But then, what a day to follow.

Feb 1991 is my first memory of snow I was only 4 and I opened the back door wondering what the hell was going on only to be greeted with snow up to my neck I slammed the door shut. Nowadays I'd kill to have that amount-could you just imagine if we got a surprise and had more than up north got with a good old beefy Thames streamer event

Edited February 3, 2021 by Kentspur

[stainesbloke]

18 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

I was ten years old in 91 living near Brentwood, remember looking out of the window in disbelief as the showers just kept packing in.

The thing that struck me about it, and something I've loved about major events since, was how quiet and calm everything went as the snow piled up. Felt like the world had stopped

@stainesbloke can't see paperboys being allowed out in that level of cold now made of sterner stuff back then. 

That sense of quiet and calm is very noticeable and I love it, too. Hopefully, this upcoming spell will materialise and it won’t be marginal, this time with ice days and powder snow. Ideally, there’ll be a cold but dry day beforehand, to cool the ground. 1991 had that, and on that very snowy day, it didn’t get above -4°C in London. 

Edited February 3, 2021 by stainesbloke

[lottiekent]

Morning, woken to heavy rain. Normal day then

In 1991, I was 13 - a couple of my friends and I loved the weather so knew snow was on the way (loved that Countryfile forecast on the Sunday!) and were at school when it started properly. We all got sent home early as those of us who got buses had to go up a steep hill and the local bus company wanted to stop their services around lunchtime.

Another thing I remember about that was on the return to school after the heaviest snow was done, the massive icicles everywhere! They were impressive and I can’t remember seeing them that size since.

Fingers crossed the forecast remains as it is as would love my son to see proper snow!

Edited February 3, 2021 by lottiekent
Spelling

[Snipper]

47 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Yes, looking more and more likely that the UK will see a very wintry spell. Has a feel of February 1991 to me, a classic never to be forgotten. Enjoyed that spell immensely. Fingers crossed for you all

62/63 was memorable. Rode my bike on the river ice down into Chelmsford. 

[stainesbloke]

2 minutes ago, Snipper said:

62/63 was memorable. Rode my bike on the river ice down into Chelmsford. 

62/63 was something else....nothing remotely compares to it since. Must have been amazing. I enjoyed seeing pics of the Thames frozen over in Staines and lots of people ice-skating on it. 10 years before I was born. 

[weathergeek]

Lovely looking charts although I do have a bit of concern that what was possible Snow for Sat then moved to Sunday and is now Mon afternoon and into Tuesday so is still at D5 when I was hoping to feel a bit more concrete by tomorrow but now won't feel confident until about Sat/Sun for Mon/Tues!!

My brother (another snow fan) @Chertseystreamer79 sent me some great pics yesterday as it was 12yrs since the foot dumping of snow we had in Feb 2009!!! It was mad!! And we also had snow a year ago yesterday too because we met up Box Hill where knew it would be a bit deeper!xx

[jamesgold]

Locations now show up on mobile!! Thank you to whoever sorted that

Edited February 3, 2021 by jamesgold