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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers!
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

    A new thread to continue discussing the weather and how it impacts us here in the SE and EA.

    There's a growing chance of significant snow for our Region in a week's time with the models starting to firm up on the likely synoptics. With these forecasts still 6 or 7 days away changes are possible so we can't assume it's in the bag, but here's the forecasts from the top models showing the similarities and possibly commencement of snow:

    GFS late Saturday into Sunday 1638852397_SEopenerGFSlateSatSun.thumb.GIF.8c3b8bbb0234f8e73b106b1666991fcf.GIF

    UKMO late Sunday into Monday 266134142_SEopenerUKMOlateSunMon.thumb.GIF.1580909b896358a9238aeeca6db2b62e.GIF

    ECM late Sunday into Monday 1159904326_SEopenerECMlateSunMon.thumb.GIF.f65f884788448979c204daceeb7279d3.GIF

    Charts: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/

    With it likely to get very busy in here can I ask we please keep discussions friendly, respectful and generally weather related. 🙂

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    I suppose not really weather related but I just wanted to say thank you all so much.  I've really really enjoyed following the posts today.  I am awaiting Open Heart Surgery sometime this year and you

    Oh my f**king god. How many times does it need saying? 1. The amber doesn't expire until tomorrow midday 2. Widespread heavy showers & streamers are going to follow later, tonight,

    Evening. Here's my estimated #snow depths for England and Wales that I expect until noon on Monday, using a blend of high resolution models.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

    Yes these charts are still just out of the reliable timeframe and ideally you'd want the cold initially a touch further south, but they're becoming within touching distance....

    Precip and snow depth charts just for fun at this stage!

    gfs-0-144.png

    gfs-1-144.png

    overview_20210201_00_144.jpg

    overview_20210201_00_150.jpg

    overview_20210201_00_168.jpg

    snowdepth_20210201_00_180.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Great charts BUT...

    Quite a few GFS ensemble members are struggling to pull the cold air in as the LP ends up a little too far NW. Cold air circulates around us and we end up in a possibly marginal situation.

    Worth a watch, its a trend that is starting to gain some legs on the ensembles this suite and would be a plausible risk 

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    Posted
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic

    Looks like cross model agreement for the first time, this winter. Some exciting looking charts are showing, with less chance of marginality. Looks like there’ll be tears; either of joy or because of a frigid easterly gale, or an epic toy throwing tantrum, as a week in meteorology is a long time. Am hoping for the former!

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Cheers Malcolm 😊

    1 hour ago, Surrey said:

    Which GFS you looking at?

    372934494_GFS1.thumb.png.41473dd12b7d0d2a956a8f8c90a415ef.png

     

    1464993370_GFS2.thumb.png.b3fc0aafd55cd93ce8298b35e37e90de.png

    To answer this I mean the complex low over Ireland here at day 3.

    image.thumb.gif.5035b8f9eda760f058f436d5a817a096.gif
     

    The GFS tends to sink this southwards allowing a quicker route to a cold ENE wind whilst the others track that low through the U.K. at different speeds/trajectories. However with the ECM out there is a good consensus of cold weather developing from the end of this week, however the speed of which we develop this ENE flow varies from model to model.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers!
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
    9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Great charts BUT...

    Quite a few GFS ensemble members are struggling to pull the cold air in as the LP ends up a little too far NW. Cold air circulates around us and we end up in a possibly marginal situation.

    Worth a watch, its a trend that is starting to gain some legs on the ensembles this suite and would be a plausible risk 

    Indeed Kold, there's a chance of the pattern going wrong at this range (a week out). But hopefully (for those of a cold preference) a good pointer is the GEFS ensemble mean for next Sunday 7th which indicates the majority of members are on-side for the snowy outcome:

    1893929830_SEopenerGEFSmeanSun7thFeb.thumb.png.d1dc9e475541be8654fc501f5d8c76e7.png

    @stainesbloke I've got both sledge and toys on standby, ready for any outcome. 😀

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    3 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

    Indeed Kold, there's a chance of the pattern going wrong at this range (a week out). But hopefully (for those of a cold preference) a good pointer is the GEFS ensemble mean for next Sunday 7th which indicates the majority of members are on-side for the snowy outcome:

    1893929830_SEopenerGEFSmeanSun7thFeb.thumb.png.d1dc9e475541be8654fc501f5d8c76e7.png

    @stainesbloke I've got both sledge and toys on standby, ready for any outcome. 😀

     

    Yeah, the majority still look good, and I think we'd be mighty unlucky to have that LP sit in a poor place, but just thought for our neck of the woods it was worth highlighting since it is an option on the table.

    Better to prime ourselves incase that solution gets to become a trend. The good news is typically these things evolve southwards, though I do think the GFS has a pretty good feel for the evolution based on yesterdays rock solid consistency. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey

    Metcheck so JFF - based on GFS I believe but good to look at for my location - Farnham 😃

    E5F51A4B-2020-4AFE-9030-5A8F3A2621A3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

    Indeed Kold, there's a chance of the pattern going wrong at this range (a week out). But hopefully (for those of a cold preference) a good pointer is the GEFS ensemble mean for next Sunday 7th which indicates the majority of members are on-side for the snowy outcome:

    1893929830_SEopenerGEFSmeanSun7thFeb.thumb.png.d1dc9e475541be8654fc501f5d8c76e7.png

    @stainesbloke I've got both sledge and toys on standby, ready for any outcome. 😀

     

    Me too it will be the first meaningful fall of snow for me here 

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

    Fingers crossed for this ending right for us, this time.

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    Posted
  • Location: St Albans,
  • Location: St Albans,
    1 hour ago, cobbett said:

    Metcheck so JFF - based on GFS I believe but good to look at for my location - Farnham 😃

    E5F51A4B-2020-4AFE-9030-5A8F3A2621A3.png

    Obviously only 'indicative' at this point but are the depths quoted in mm of rain or are they snow depths?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    6 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

    Fingers crossed for this ending right for us, this time.

    It's sure looking good, H! Anywho, fresh winds, driving snow and -1C will do me fine... I really cannae see the point of -6C!:santa-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    When it's safe to order the sledges .Need another 24 hours at least .I have seen easterlies go wrong at 96 hours before

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
  • Weather Preferences: The colder the better
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
    1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

    It's sure looking good, H! Anywho, fresh winds, driving snow and -1C will do me fine... I really cannae see the point of -6C!:santa-emoji:

    Agreed. But having been burnt too many times before, i think i'd give it another 48 hours before getting too excited.

    Remember, for us in the south east, what can go wrong generally does go wrong.

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    It's sure looking good, H! Anywho, fresh winds, driving snow and -1C will do me fine... I really cannae see the point of -6C!:santa-emoji:

    I can't remember what minus 27 feels like, but if I'm honest, I don't think I want too.

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    Posted
  • Location: Icklesham, near Rye East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Love hot sunshine and cold snowy weather
  • Location: Icklesham, near Rye East Sussex
    13 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

    I can't remember what minus 27 feels like, but if I'm honest, I don't think I want too.

    Crikey me neither, unless I had some Eskimo furs to don! 🥶🥶😅

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    Posted
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, Essex
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, Essex

    Beginning of every week my hopes are raised for the end of the week... it's properly trolling me now! 

    Screen Shot 2021-02-01 at 09.49.54.png

    Edited by moogyboobles
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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
  • Weather Preferences: The colder the better
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
    9 minutes ago, moogyboobles said:

    Beginning of every week my hopes are raised for the end of the week... it's properly trolling me now! 

    Screen Shot 2021-02-01 at 09.49.54.png

    GFS 06z now throwing a wobbly.

    This is far from a done deal.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy, wintry weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

    Morning all,

    Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

    Certainly some happy Bunnies in the Model Thread, earlier this Morning after those 00z Runs.

    But the GFS 06z Run, seems to have punctured the euphoria, somewhat.

    As was stated on the previous Thread, it seems that the MeteoGroup extended Forecast, is based on the 00z ECM Run.

    MeteoGroup's Weather for the Week ahead, is updated between 5 and 6 PM.

    If that suggestion above is correct, expect Tonight's update and final extended offering to look like the following:

       00z ECM (t240) Thurs. 11th Feb.

    image.thumb.png.1586b3bd74c0b8420138288ba1551330.png

    An Atlantic Low, disrupting South-Eastwards.

    Regards,

    Tom. 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    3 hours ago, kold weather said:

    Great charts BUT...

    Quite a few GFS ensemble members are struggling to pull the cold air in as the LP ends up a little too far NW. Cold air circulates around us and we end up in a possibly marginal situation.

    Worth a watch, its a trend that is starting to gain some legs on the ensembles this suite and would be a plausible risk 

    I will quote myself from earlier this morning regarding the 06z gfs.

    It was definitely showing on the 00z GFS ensembles.

    Icon also looks iffy...

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    Posted
  • Location: Halesworth, Suffolk
  • Location: Halesworth, Suffolk

    Need to get through the next few days of whats looks like another load of rain before thinking about snow. Another flooded week on the horizon unfortunately 🥱

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    Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow - Frost - A beach in the Med
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL

    MAD thread everytime.....

    giphy.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey
    1 hour ago, m1chaels said:

    Obviously only 'indicative' at this point but are the depths quoted in mm of rain or are they snow depths?

    I think thats snow amount for the specified time period

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