Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Weathizard]

850 mean, it’s a small adjustment but unfortunately it’s a clear shift for the south, hopefully a blip  

[Timmytour]

Those who believe this cold spell is nailed on are obviously not Spurs supporters.

We know only too well expectation can turn to real pain.....

 

[ICE COLD]

The mean is ok at T138 . But that run has made me very Jittery

[IDO]

Looking at T132 on the ensembles and 21 are closer to the easterly solution:

 mean>

I think we saw yesterday the gfs op pull one out of the small clusters, and although more support in this suite, the mean is fine. The control looks a halfway house so not great at d6. Certainly the 06z is the one we want a wobble on as it is prone to that. Though I was really hoping for some consistency in the op as we are so close to T0!

[Djdazzle]

The 6z is a wake up call to anyone who thinks this is nailed on.

I think 50% chance of significant cold at the moment. 

[Paul_1978]

5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I don’t like the mean, it’s much more indicative of the phasing across the top we don’t want (0z and 6z comparison)

Wait, what? They look almost identical to me.

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I don’t like the mean, it’s much more indicative of the phasing across the top we don’t want (0z and 6z comparison)

It’s a very slight variation this is what you expect to see.  Perhaps we’ve been spoiled.

 

[tight isobar]

6z= outlier..@mid frames moreso✌...if it's gonna wobble let it wobble on the 6z op!✌✌...moving on.....

[ICE COLD]

Look at it like this everyone the models are meeting in the middle . ECM mean at T144 and GFS 6z mean at T144 . 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Those who believe this cold spell is nailed on are obviously not Spurs supporters.

We know only too well expectation can turn to real pain.....

 

And, not to be too superstitious, John Kettley was on LBC, yesterday morning, tending towards a real BFTE, for this coming weekend... I'm sure he said the very same thing, back in 2001?

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, General Cluster said:

And, not to be too superstitious, John Kettley was on LBC, yesterday morning, tending towards a real BFTE, for this coming weekend... I'm sure he said the very same thing, back in 2001?

Whose that? Someone who knows what they're talking about or?

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

Wait, what? They look almost identical to me.

Deeper Atlantic low, deeper scandi troughing and Atlantic ridge not as strong - look how much closer the blue is basically, if these areas phase it’s crucial for the south especially and will mean a decent delay of cold.

People will say variation of a theme, but it’s an undeniable step down from the south, it’s not an over reaction to say that and it’s certainly not an outlier as some claim.

[Battleground Snow]

Para is cold for all as soon as 132.

Ensembles do show a big spread..and don't look as superb further south as the 00z but they are still very good

[That ECM]

5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The mean is ok at T138 . But that run has made me very Jittery

Agreed.  Nothing like model watching. 

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

Whose that? Someone who knows what they're talking about or?

John kettley is one of the country's most renowned..@old school mets...

Edited February 1, 2021 by tight isobar

[lewis clark]

On 30/01/2021 at 11:58, Froze were the Days said:

If you live in Scotland or Northern England...yawn! In general we're looking beyond day 7 for cold which might take out marginality nationwide. We need upgrades ASAP and not at D10.

 

[Singularity]

The thing with GFS is, it's been constantly making a good deal more of the main Euro trough than the other models, including its parallel cousin.

Now, this is alright if the polar boundary is held far south enough by the HLB, but the 06z has adjusted that to be more in line with the 00z ECM.

That solution got the cold air in Sun-Mon because the Euro trough was relatively weak, keeping the milder air from making so much northward progress to our southeast/east.

So basically, the GFS 06z has shown us the worst of both worlds: HLB further north and very developed Euro trough.

 

 

GFS(P) is here to help steady the nerves again with something that looks like the ICON 12z of yesterday; a low to the east funnelling the very cold air to the UK.

Seeing this appear again tells me that we're still picking options out of a hat really - no closer to knowing the true path than we were 24 hours ago.

What I will say, though, is that I'd be surprised if the Euro trough became as deep as GFS keeps predicting. Fairly sure that's a model bias thing - indeed I've been suspecting that going down its route (prior to the 06z) but with bias adjustment would leave us dependent on 'streamers' off the North Sea; a bit high and dry in the west.

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

John kettley is one of the country's most renowned..@old school mets...

Interesting.. Good news if he is saying things like that then?

[MJB]

6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

The 6z is a wake up call to anyone who thinks this is nailed on.

I think 50% chance of significant cold at the moment. 

Well out to Feb 7th the dominant scenario is winds from the East, yes some follow the OP but without a doubt its still looking like Easterlies.........at the minute 75% i'd say 

[SqueakheartLW]

My latest update on the GFS, GEM and GFS Extended.

GFS 18z and 00z

I won't elaborate too much on the 18z as it wasn't any upgrade or downgrade to the colder spell with another 850hpa temperature average of -9.5 at the peak of the colder spell, matching the -9.5 from the 12z before it. The anomaly chart maintained those deep blues over the UK and the pressure chart maintained the average easterly too.

The 00z however was a more interesting run overall and the peak of the cold on this one came at 156 hours away

After the 12z and 18z matched each other more or less we come to this more interesting 00z run. As with the previous few runs we maintain an average easterly over the UK at 156 hours away. The 850hpa temperature did two interesting things today. The first is that we set a new low average and the second was that we finally broke the -10 barrier with a new low of -10.4 which is -7.8 below the long term mean and smashed the previous low which was yesterday's 06z by -0.6. The anomaly chart shows even deeper blues over the UK and that pink patch again to our east which on this chart looks like it has a face on it.

Mildest 3 charts from the 00z GFS at 156 hours away

With such a cold 850hpa average it was a bit of a struggle to get anything really that mild here but anyhow these are the top 3 least cold charts is what I should really say here

3rd     Member 7     850hpa temp -7.7

This shows how cold a run this was if the 3rd mildest chart has an 850hpa temp of -7.7

2nd     Member 3     850hpa temp -4.5

Both this chart and the above one could be real snow makers away from the SE corner

1st     Member 9     850hpa temp -4.4

The only chart that I could find at 156 hours away that could actually represent a less cold/mild pattern but with -4.4 above there is still snow potential even here

Coldest 3 charts from the 00z GFS at 156 hours away

This should be fun with that -10.4 average 850hpa temperature. Lets see just how cold the top 3 at this timeframe actually are

3rd     Member 24     850hpa temp -13.4

2nd     Member 20     850hpa temp -13.7

1st     Member 14     850hpa temp -14.7

Mildest doom and gloom chart from the 00z GFS

Member 3     +246 hours     850hpa temp 5.9

Coldest fantasy chart from the 00z GFS

Member 1     +300 hours     850hpa temp -15.3

GEM 00z

Time for me to summarize the GEM 00z and compare with the 12z from yesterday. On the 00z the 850hpa temperature at the peak of the cold spell at 168 hours away came in at a decent -9.0 which is -6.4 below the long term mean. That is a big upgrade to the colder spell by a decent -2.1 and brings GEM more or less back into line with the GFS now.

Mildest 3 charts from the GEM 00z at 168 hours away

3rd     Member 17     850hpa temp -7.4

2nd     Member 9     850hpa temp -7.3

1st     Member 5     850hpa temp -4.0

Coldest 3 charts from the 00z GEM at 168 hours away

3rd     Member 15     850hpa temp -11.7

2nd     Member 10     850hpa temp -11.8

1st     Member 1     850hpa temp -12.6

Mildest doom and gloom chart from the 00z GEM

Member 20     +360 hours     850hpa temp 12.4

Coldest fantasy chart from the 00z GEM

Member 11     +138 hours     850hpa temp -12.9

GFS Extended

Time for my daily look at the GFS Extended to see how it compared with yesterday's extended run as well as the main GFS. Today the peak of the colder spell on the extended run is at 168 hours away

Today the GFS Extended maintains the average easterly at 168 hours away so keeping us firmly on track for this easterly wind. The 850hpa temperature today came out at a new low of -9.3 which is -7.2 below the long term mean and this is a -0.5 upgrade to the colder spell compared with the previous extended run. The anomaly chart also has those deep blue colours over the UK like on the main GFS. With an upgrade to all 3 models I am featuring today then this looks very promising.

Mildest 3 charts on the GFS Extended at 168 hours away

3rd     Member 11     850hpa temp -4.6

2nd     Member 26     850hpa temp -4.3

1st     Member 29     850hpa temp -0.9

Coldest 3 charts from the GFS Extended for 168 hours away

3rd     Member 20     850hpa temp -12.7

2nd     Member 30     850hpa temp -13.4

1st     Member 27     850hpa temp -14.3

Mildest doom and gloom chart from the GFS Extended

Member 29     +336 hours     850hpa temp 11.9

Coldest fantasy chart from the GFS Extended

Control     +636 hours     850hpa temp -14.4

[Yarmy]

4 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Whose that? Someone who knows what they're talking about or?

 

 

[TSNWK]

28 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

MetO being really bullish.. Weather warnings out all the way to Saturday! Have they ever done that before?

Also another good Exeter update!

how does this 06Z look for the weekend in the south compared with 06Z yesterday? - also what would we rather?  blend overnights across the piste and stonking 06Z or what we have at present....

UK met trended right way overnight and is peach when it matters with the low, that for more leaves me content enough for now :

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Interesting.. Good news if he is saying things like that then?

Google the john kettley =Michel fish song

[MJB]

A good Para 144h

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

I cannot discern any difference from mean.

 

Same run 0z.

Edited February 1, 2021 by That ECM