Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[ITSY]

06z GFS is a variation on a theme but a variant those of us in the SE Quadrant do not want to verify. The Easterly persists but, just as in December, draws in milder uppers for the first several frames which prevents the big Feb 09-esque snow event. It's a sort of ECM-GFS blend, with the Easterly tracking further North across the British isles leaving Scotland and NE England absolutely buried (what a winter it's been for them). There are signs though of an Atlantic undercut, a Greenland block and frigid temps over Scandi, so you only need minor changes for it to turn insane over later frames. That being said, this definitely counts as a wobble (in my opinion) from a selfish/IMBY SE perspective! 

Edited February 1, 2021 by ITSY

[frosty ground]

Atlantic finally slides by, interesting system moving north west west , could be a snow maker for some that.

Also someone needs to send a rescue team to dig Eastern Scotland out.

Edited February 1, 2021 by frosty ground

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, BurwellWeatherWatch said:

the GFS seems fine so far, albeit a slightly slower burner (or freezer - whichever way you look at it).

I'll reserve full judgement until a bit later in the sequence - I guess this is the problem with providing excessively dramatic commentary in real time as the run is emerging.

???.. Real time run to run commentary does my head in..but at this juncture...and with a probable easterly incursion...then it's quite necessary...imo!

[mulzy]

No point sugar coating it, 6z GFS is a poor run till day 7 (especially for the south).  The phasing with the incoming Atlantic low is far from ideal.

[Sky Full]

Here’s all the models at +168hr (8th Feb) ..... (UKMO at +144hr).....

                                           500s.                                                     850s

UKMO      ,

ECM          

GFS           

GEM         

JMA          

NAV         

Remarkable agreement, especially between ECM and GEM.   It’s pretty inconceivable that they might all backtrack within the next five or six days so we’re definitely in for a cold easterly blast, I reckon.

Edited February 1, 2021 by Sky Full

[The Northern Ramper]

4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Big problems?


Just a variation and a slight delay, bit more for the south east but its coming..

Looks at that high over Greenland., Winds could back north westerly at some point

Looks like copious amounts of snow to me

[Methuselah]

The GFS 06Z really does have trouble with this:  

[frosty ground]

Just now, mulzy said:

No point sugar coating it, 6z GFS is a poor run till day 7 (ONLY for the south).  The phasing with the incoming Atlantic low is far from ideal.

Corrected it for you

[offerman]

9 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

They do not use a French site.

The French site just happens to show the model data (along with all of the other free models used in Europe).

Perhaps email the Meto and ask them why they do not host the model on their own site.

Thank you Radiating 

[sheikhy]

Yuk from the 06z!!!needs to change asap on the 12z!!just wen u think we got model agreement the ugly 06z comes out!!

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

No point sugar coating it, 6z GFS is a poor run till day 7 (especially for the south).  The phasing with the incoming Atlantic low is far from ideal.

And I am guessing its changed by the 12z this is very different to its previous runs 

[DJ Fart]

This was never going to be a nice, smooth coast into the weekend without any issues, was it?!  

Must remind myself to not get hung up on every run...doesn't help when I'm working from home and have this page open with the sound effect of each post!  

[TSNWK]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Yuk from the 06z!!!needs to change asap on the 12z!!just wen u think we got model agreement the ugly 06z comes out!!

Short ensembles to save the day - otherwise its 6 hours of told you so etc post and wrist slitting for us in the south

[Geordiesnow]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

No point sugar coating it, 6z GFS is a poor run till day 7 (especially for the south).  The phasing with the incoming Atlantic low is far from ideal.

Lets not mislead too much either, it's not a poor run for North Eastern areas but clearly for southern parts the slowness of that low clearing hampers the cold air from heading here as quickly. As I said its very fine margins but the GFS maintains the easterly trend which is what matters really. 

[Updated_Weather]

MetO being really bullish.. Weather warnings out all the way to Saturday! Have they ever done that before?

Also another good Exeter update!

[Weathizard]

High pressure nudging in from the south east ruining everything, how is it that as soon as the ECM hops on board the steadfast GFS jumps off? This always seems to happen.

[DJ Fart]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Short ensembles to save the day - otherwise its 6 hours of told you so etc post and wrist slitting for us in the south

Yes, much more marginal for us down here...would be cruel to miss out again, but c'est la vie.  We can come back in the summer and boast of our maxima...!

[Updated_Weather]

Why don't we wait until we see the ensembles before judging the 6z.. Could easily be a mild outlier in its ensembles.. But could just be another option on the table.. 

Important 12z later!

[That ECM]

It’s about the placing of the high. This is not about a big change in the nhp. See where it sits. Scotland and the ne would be buried on this run. 

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

High pressure nudging in from the south east ruining everything, how is it that as soon as the ECM hops on board the steadfast GFS jumps off? This always seems to happen.

High pressure?

[Frigid]

I wouldn't be worrying too much atm. That LP just needs to sink south and with the lack of Iberian heights, doesn't look far from achieving it. GFS just going through that phase again. ECM and GEM look great

[Penicuikblizzard]

38 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

just 76cm for Edinburgh and the central belt . 

That would be record breaking for Edinburgh if that came off

[StLuke]

6z needs to be a massive outlier for the south east, the 0z ensembles @150 did not indicate +5 uppers being possible!!

[Updated_Weather]

Also random question but hasn't the 6z been delaying the cold anyways in recent output?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Dj fart said:

Yes, much more marginal for us down here...would be cruel to miss out again, but c'est la vie.  We can come back in the summer and boast of our maxima...!

Aye, bad for us in the south, bone dry all the way, dosen't look it