Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[kold weather]

Worth reminding ourselves of how cold 2009 was, given the timing of the Feb 09 easterly is pretty close:

Has to be said the depth of cold is really not all that different compared to what alot of the models are showing at this stage, particularly on some of the GFS members, especially given the tightness of the isobars as well on some of the ensembles.

Just something to keep a close eye on!

[khodds]

10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah I'm always hyper wary of easterlies, even at 96-120hrs out. Been burned literally dozens of times over the last 15 years.

However there is a certain robustness to this set-up and the way it evolves means I think the north is now 100% certain for a cold spell. Still some uncertainties regarding how well the cold air filters down, particular the further SE you go, however the models have 100% trended in a good way by in large overnight.

We probably need to see 2-3 more suites coming in like the 00z before we can really get excited but at least the ECM has kicked itself into gear now.

 

Good to hear! But it’s always THAT ECM that it comes back to.. think it scarred me for life

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, khodds said:

Good to hear! But it’s always THAT ECM that it comes back to.. think it scarred me for life

That run is just about to happen in 6/7 days. It just picked it up 8 year and a couple of months early.

[Chesil View]

17 minutes ago, khodds said:

With the risk of sounding like a party pooper, it’s way too early to get excited. We have all been here before and been burned. I’m just watching with interest right now

I can understand your reluctance khd. Having been burnt before. But that's often because one model wasn't fully on board with a switch to easterly/northeasterly fed cold. ATM we do at least have cross model (big three) agreement at pretty close range.  Detail however remains to ironed out over the next few days.

So a watching brief for me too.

[Garthvader]

Can this now be classified as a major warming?

10hpa & 30hpa attached.

 

[DJ Fart]

7 minutes ago, khodds said:

Good to hear! But it’s always THAT ECM that it comes back to.. think it scarred me for life

Yes, that has to be at the back of ALL our minds before telling children, friends, work colleagues etc!  It doesn't help that I keep seeing @That ECM posting!   

[Sky Full]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Such a relief to be able to post...Fantastic ECM.. Snow from the east and then from the west. No one misses out in this run!!

My goodness!  If it happens like that this place will go into meltdown....with apologies for that particular metaphor.

[Jason H]

Runs overnight solidifying the cold encroachment at the weekend. It's looked likely now for a couple of days in my opinion. I am a believer of the adage, get the cold in and snow opportunities will arise. The next 2/3 days will give us further direction where any snow is likely to occur. The North and East look the favoured places to be in such a set up. But this is obviously subject to change.

[SLEETY]

IM giving it another 24 hours before ordering the sledges lol,but getting towards the timeframe when you can call it a done deal.Chance the minus 15 line might make it across the North Sea,which is very rare .

Lots of heavy snow showers piling in from the North Sea,if all this verifies.

[EML Network]

It's been such fun watching the models slowly converge into the broader synoptic pattern over the last 5 or 6 days regarding next week(ends) potential cold and potentially snowy spell. 

The way I see it is that there is a 2 pronged attack that could give large swathes of the country a memorable snow event, but equally as likely is that we end up with cold but no snow to go with it, away from East facing coasts. 

 

The first ''attack'' comes from the south and the GFS has been really consistent with this, it  comes from the Low moving NE to end up centred through France after first having gone through Spain , which then flattens and that it what keeps aloft the high pressure above it allowing several days of cold and snowy potential. 

GFS 120 (centre of the 2 lows over Spain at this stage)

GFS 162 LP moving North bumps into the HP above, isobars tighten 

GFS 162 > Resulting snowfall =  jackpot for many who have seen nowt so far this winter (myself included)

 

However with the GFS solution it really is on a knife edge for many across the snow starved south east with milder uppers really not all the far away, if that Low was to shift a few 100 miles further north then it could potentially be the biggest let down of a winter full of let downs for this part of the country

The GFS has been uncannily consistent with bringing this feature into play and giving a huge dumping of snow for a good 48 hours on and off throughout Sunday and Monday next week. 

 

The ECM after taking baby steps towards the GFS evolution, this morning half heartedly sort of joins the party all be it at a later stage and with the ECM evolution once again it's all fine margins at + 144 with the ECM that initial low won't drop and instead takes up residence over southern half the UK 

BUT for the first time since this projected cold spell has been picked up it follows the same pattern as the GFS and flattens the Low , the difference here being that the High pressure aloft is far slacker and so there is no push or squeeze in the isobars , but what im liking bout the ECM this morning is that low in the Atlantic, that has got slider written all over it !! and this is where I see a POTENTIAL 2nd attack

On this run the Low sitting out in the Atlantic pushes up against the block as opposed to sliding under. 

But that's very very close to a slider and it really wouldn't take much of an adjustment. 

 

I'm really not sure what to make of the UKMO at 144, it's a bit of a half way house one thing that does worry me on the UKMO is just how much closer that Atlantic Low pressure is compared to where it is on the GFS and ECM at the same timeframe and it's orientation, it could come and ruin the party before it's even started but it could join the party and make it into a truly memorable event. 

I think there is reason to be cautiously optimistic today, but not overly so. until the phasing of the low pressure systems initially come to within 72 hours on the charts small movements, filling, stalling can make or break the outcome. 

for the Midlands though you guys look like you are having the best winter ever constantly seem to be in that sweet spot and as for Scotland you guys are just like ''what's the weather like out there, I can't see out of my window because of all the snow'' 

06z rolling out soon, should just be a variation on a theme with any luck and if it is, then we're a little baby step closer. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by EML Network

[Penrith Snow]

14 minutes ago, khodds said:

Good to hear! But it’s always THAT ECM that it comes back to.. think it scarred me for life

But remember during the That ECM fiasco the UKMO model was never on board.

This is different for once we have near cross model agreement.

what could possibly go wrong  

Andy

[DJ Fart]

1 minute ago, Penrith Snow said:

But remember during the That ECM fiasco the UKMO model was never on board.

This is different for once we have near cross model agreement.

what could possibly go wrong  

Andy

Uh-oh!  

[Malarky]

Hi all, first post here after lurking throughout January.  It's been a ride!

My very rookie offering is to say that today's Metcheck 16-day forecast is the best it's looked all winter.

Will be watching the models with you all, though I'll probably look like the dog-typing-on-a-computer meme by comparison.

[Winter Hill]

57 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Right let me tell you why i think the king model is playing catch up thank god!!yesterdays ecm had a ridge going up towards scandi at 120 hours which kept the low over the uk and not sinking as much and not as quickly therefore we were getting crappy left over cold 850s from the north and not the full on scandi freeze!!!!today on the other hand the ridge is pretty much gone at 120 hours and the low over france and spain is disrupting into europe and around the same area the ecm had the ridge in. A move defo towards gfs this morning and the ecm SHOULD complete its bad days at the office later on!!!view attached photos to see what i mean...

With all due respect, your king model the ECM has been made to look the joker of the pack 

[tight isobar]

Some damn fine member this morning @EPS. 

The vent=flow scream convective potential!..with a stress free non marginal scenario!

some big impactual snow ❄ moving in on a stark continental feed!✌real possibility..and some real ice

days gaining...everything in the mix...on a winter note...@more later...see how we roll today..I think I know how we'll unfold.✌...@perhaps a classic winding up now

Edited February 1, 2021 by tight isobar

[Battleground Snow]

Icon still messing around with that scandi trough extention again, but it's all good at 120.

 

[Mark wheeler]

Well I haven’t read the forum this morning and decided to look at all the output myself first this morning . I’ve got the 144hrs chart from every model and the overall trend is brilliant . Love the way the Ecm is trending this morning especially the chart after 144 hours is a beauty. My favourite Navgem is brilliant and the cma is churning out very similar once again . Enjoy the roller coaster . Mark

[Daniel*]

We’ve definitely been burnt over the year with easterlies, but I’m struggling to remember the last time we had a possible decent easterly on table in semi reliable timeframe and it not happen. I remember December 2012 but that was yonks ago now, model skill has improved in that time. 

[offerman]

1 hour ago, loafer said:

He’s viewing the charts on Meteociel.fr which is a French site.

Thanks loafer , 

but when I asked to get charts from the Metoffice and I asked for a link on other threads before to the Met office

The links that I was always given where to charts like these in French. 

Four example, A user just posted this as part of his post “ 

“UKMO going down the Dutch lp route after scooting the pressure system eastwards initially”  so am I correct that the UKMO means UK Met office?

if so when I’ve asked for the UKMO charts before I was always given links to French sites. 

so could you post me a link to the Met office charts please 

 

many thanks and apologies for being a bit dumb I just genuinely didn’t know

I can view GFS on this site with no problems suggest a link to the MOUK would be great thanks 

 

[JoeShmoe]

41 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

My goodness!  If it happens like that this place will go into meltdown....with apologies for that particular metaphor.

just 76cm for Edinburgh and the central belt . 

[Had Worse]

11 minutes ago, offerman said:

Thanks loafer , 

but when I asked to get charts from the Metoffice and I asked for a link on other threads before to the Met office

The links that I was always given where to charts like these in French. 

Four example, A user just posted this as part of his post “ 

“UKMO going down the Dutch lp route after scooting the pressure system eastwards initially”  so am I correct that the UKMO means UK Met office?

if so when I’ve asked for the UKMO charts before I was always given links to French sites. 

so could you post me a link to the Met office charts please 

 

many thanks and apologies for being a bit dumb I just genuinely didn’t know

I can view GFS on this site with no problems suggest a link to the MOUK would be great thanks 

 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Météociel propose le modèle UKMO à maille moyenne (1.25 degrés) jusqu'à 144h. Cartes de prévision des précipitations, du vent, des températures à tous les niveaux

Depending on what browser you use, you can right click and there should be a 'Translate to English' option.

Edited February 1, 2021 by Had Worse

[Weathizard]

2 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Météociel propose le modèle UKMO à maille moyenne (1.25 degrés) jusqu'à 144h. Cartes de prévision des précipitations, du vent, des températures à tous les niveaux

Depending on what browser you use, you can right click and there should be a 'Translate to English' option.

I feel like over the years I’ve learnt more French from Meteociel  than I ever learnt at school  

[North East Blizzard]

Gfs is going to be slower in clearing that low here than the 0z

[Blessed Weather]

1 hour ago, Garthvader said:

Can this now be classified as a major warming?

10hpa & 30hpa attached.

 

The classification of a SSW as a major warming is widely accepted to be the reversal of the mean zonal wind at 10hPa 60N. This morning's GFS forecast suggests this is imminent, although brief, before wind speeds increase again. The 0z GEFS ensemble mean suggests it may have happened yesterday, 31st January. However, if a 2nd reversal happens within 20 days of a previous reversal, it is considered to be one and the same event, so as the first reversal was on 5th January this should be classified as a separate event - just. We'll see what the strat professionals think.

GFS  GEFS

Sources:
GFS http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime.php
GEFS http://weatheriscool.com/page11.html

Edit: Sorry - 5th Jan plus 20 days is 25th January - so separate event by this definition. Got my date calculations wrong. Doh.

Edited February 1, 2021 by Blessed Weather

[Yarmy]

9 minutes ago, offerman said:

Thanks loafer , 

but when I asked to get charts from the Metoffice and I asked for a link on other threads before to the Met office

The links that I was always given where to charts like these in French. 

Four example, A user just posted this as part of his post “ 

“UKMO going down the Dutch lp route after scooting the pressure system eastwards initially”  so am I correct that the UKMO means UK Met office?

if so when I’ve asked for the UKMO charts before I was always given links to French sites. 

so could you post me a link to the Met office charts please 

 

many thanks and apologies for being a bit dumb I just genuinely didn’t know

I can view GFS on this site with no problems suggest a link to the MOUK would be great thanks 

 

 

All the major weather centres (UK Met Office, ECMWF, NCEP, etc) publish their model output in a standardised format, usually either GRIB or NetCDF. Some of this data is free, some of it costs money (a *lot* of money).

Websites like Meteociel, Wetterzentrale, and Netweather download that data and then render it into charts for plebs like us to view. There are many, many other websites that do the same, but charge for it via subscriptions.

Meteociel and Wetterzentrale are popular here because they are free to use, and it's possible to compare model output from the various weather centres in a single chart format.