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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
    9 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    FWIW, Ext EPS mean fairly disappointing - jet too far north allowing heights to build in Europe.  Near term EPS fantastic!

    ECM struggling in the 4-5 day range.. 

    No point worrying in the 11-15 days... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Colchester, Essex
    1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

    Yes, 152cm in fact. I saw that many of the resorts are buried as there is no one digging it out. The cafe at the top of Cairngorms has disappeared as there are no staff clearing the snow 

    I spent Christmas in the local area (Nethy Bridge) in 2017. Beautiful part of the world. We had snow from Boxing Day and took a trip up to that cafe. -15 with the wind chill! ❄️

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Don't know if I've mentioned it. We have an old saying in Yorkshire. "Winds from the East a week at least."

    Thats not a beast for a week but direction of wind. 😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Newport South East Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Newport South East Wales

    Finally cross model agreement .....ecm just had to back track into line and thankfully it has this morning. Now we need consistency over next 24 hours or so i.e nothing jumping ship!.....then we can begin to talk about where it will snow and how much ! Exciting times for coldies think ill crack a bottle open on friday if this comes off and heavy and widespread snow is forecast t -72 !

    At the moment somewhere around the 07th/08th Feb could be historic for most of country GFS showing days of snow potential.....south east primed but not exclusively which is good for the rest of us. 2018 delivered massively for me in the south wales, so I don't mind if others get some significant action this time round....swings and roundabouts and all that!

    need to keep watching as just out of the reliable ......so JFF at this stage .....❄️

     

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    HFS gives between 15cm & 20cm over a large area after the weekends easterly!

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    So ECM goes from zero to hero the closer we get to the critical period.

    Sometimes the slower evolution can end up giving you more of what you seek.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Just for fun but maximums for following Wednesday on ECM 12z... -2°C in London! Think it demonstrates how cold it could get.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    12 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

    ECM struggling in the 4-5 day range.. 

    No point worrying in the 11-15 days... 

    that’s counter intuitive IMO 

    sometimes it’s easier (and more accurate) to make a broad forecast for two weeks into the future than something in six/seven days 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Anyone else impressed with this moyenne. Snow for many driven in on a brisk Easterly flow

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    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Right let me tell you why i think the king model is playing catch up thank god!!yesterdays ecm had a ridge going up towards scandi at 120 hours which kept the low over the uk and not sinking as much and not as quickly therefore we were getting crappy left over cold 850s from the north and not the full on scandi freeze!!!!today on the other hand the ridge is pretty much gone at 120 hours and the low over france and spain is disrupting into europe and around the same area the ecm had the ridge in. A move defo towards gfs this morning and the ecm SHOULD complete its bad days at the office later on!!!view attached photos to see what i mean...

    Screenshot_20210201-080809_WhatsApp.jpg

    Screenshot_20210201-081037_WhatsApp.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
    3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    that’s counter intuitive IMO 

    sometimes it’s easier (and more accurate) to make a broad forecast for two weeks into the future than something in six/seven days 

    In normal times I'd tend to agree with you.. 

    Models and means will always resort to some kind of climatic norm at that range. 

    This time we have had multiple SSW, MJO into high amplitude and I'm still convinced lack of flight data is playing a massive part.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    1 minute ago, ALL ABOARD said:

    In normal times I'd tend to agree with you.. 

    Models and means will always resort to some kind of climatic norm at that range. 

    This time we have had multiple SSW, MJO into high amplitude and I'm still convinced lack of flight data is playing a massive part.

     

    Will be v interesting to see where week 3 is on the 46 this evening 

    a non mobile set up with no euro heights would be a surprise 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    Some nice runs this morning and a very cold GFS mean into next weekend.

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    Not of caution with the ECM and the slowness of it finally getting the proper cold feed across the whole UK.

    The really cold air is at day 6-7 and we know how fickle that range can be.  There is a small risk of the cold staying to far north before the Atlantic revs up. 

    Overall a strong signal for cold, but lets wait a few more days till we get to confident.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    that’s counter intuitive IMO 

    sometimes it’s easier (and more accurate) to make a broad forecast for two weeks into the future than something in six/seven days 

    You'd think so but in this specific situation where a 100-200 mile shift in the polar boundary means the difference between 10c and rain and 0c and snow, I think the future set-up is going to be prone to be very wonky and wrong that far out.

    I posted a great example yesterday of both the GFS/ECM being horridly wrong for yesterday's evolution for example. According to both of them last weekend yesterday at 00z should have seen a 960-970mbs large central Atlantic low. Instead we got a strung out LP complex that was at 980mbs. This was even seen still at 4 days out.

    I suppose my poorly made point is the situation further out is going to be prone to small scale shifts that will have large scale practical changes, therefore I feel here isn't a huge point of looking further out than 5 days at the moment because the sort of errors that are typically out at 180hrs+ is going to be the difference between winter wonderland and flooded sadness!

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    23 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Thankfully a less traumatic start to the day !

    No real major dramas but still disagreements on how quickly the cold edges sw wards . The limpet shortwave is still refusing to go quietly in some of the outputs even though it really needs to get the message , the party is over please go home !

    Overall I think I prefer the GFS evolution which gives both frontal snow and some heavy snow showers and brings the cold in more quickly . That is a two stage scenario because of the way it develops that low pressure near Iberia which then tracks ne wards , this strengthens the flow brings snow to the south and heavy snow showers driven westwards elsewhere . Then that front slips se and you’re back into snow showers.

    It also delays any attack from the Atlantic so you have the chance to enjoy your snow and not worry too much about whether that could win out .

    So after a rather dramatic few days finally the models are converging but I’d still like to give it to this evening to declare the limpet shortwave has finally been defeated !

    Hope you have the green light at the ready.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ipswich
  • Location: Ipswich
    7 hours ago, jacke said:

    Would you like a pram for yourself if it does turn out something like this?😝

    It won't lol im not that dense to think it will lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
    45 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Such a relief to be able to post...Fantastic ECM.. Snow from the east and then from the west. No one misses out in this run!!

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    First two scream Thames / Wash streamers.🥶

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    5 minutes ago, khodds said:

    With the risk of sounding like a party pooper, it’s way too early to get excited. We have all been here before and been burned. I’m just watching with interest right now

    Yeah I'm always hyper wary of easterlies, even at 96-120hrs out. Been burned literally dozens of times over the last 15 years.

    However there is a certain robustness to this set-up and the way it evolves means I think the north is now 100% certain for a cold spell. Still some uncertainties regarding how well the cold air filters down, particular the further SE you go, however the models have 100% trended in a good way by in large overnight.

    We probably need to see 2-3 more suites coming in like the 00z before we can really get excited but at least the ECM has kicked itself into gear now.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    Good Morning all as I stated in my last blog ECM was just holding up the real cold due 

    low pressure hanging on.Severe frosts on it’s way in 6/7days with out doubt the coldest

    period on the way could get a few record low temperatures in some parts.Time to double 

    check your plumbing and heating.

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