Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[tight isobar]

I do wonder at times if some are in here for meteorological reasons or to be keyboard warrior's . And also put NO substance \nor evaluation on things...just pure ramble and pure ########!!!!!!

Edited January 30, 2021 by tight isobar

[Allseasons-Si]

We have a cold spell on the way folks,...just look at this gefs ens graph,i have drawn a black line where the -5 line is and you can clearly see that all members(bar one rogue member) go below that and the mean has us under that for about 4 days,that is a tight cluster right there

i would not worry about the ext as these always show a scatter or milder runs,lets just consentrate on the cold spell that happens around the 4th>

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[tight isobar]

A few random snaps from the 18z gefs. @mslp @500,s @2ms anyone craving a possible noted winter outbreak...not happy with these circuit=dynamics need to ask themselves if they ever will be .ciao gunnight✌✌

[Don]

57 minutes ago, kumquat said:

He's also a realist.

Always a worry when Crewe is not on board but twists and turns in the output are inevitable!

Edited January 30, 2021 by Don

[Cheshire Freeze]

My thoughts posted on here have nothing to do with being negative nor any winter forecast (which was an absurd thing to mention).

I posted yesterday that the whole thing is a complex series of events with potential pitfalls/hurdles along the way; it's not a clean nor nailed evolution. The Arctic heights are a hugely fundamental part of the evolution- these are often modelled poorly at 96 hrs, let alone 168hrs+ Without the correct strength or alignment, the UK runs the risk of seeing a brief brush with cold uppers rather than a more prolonged and deep seated event. The EC 12z shows this perfectly. 

Ergo, I simply cannot get carried away with this potential cold spell at this moment. Nothing to do with negativity or winter forecasts, as I've already said.

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

My thoughts posted on here have nothing to do with being negative nor any winter forecast (which was an absurd thing to mention).

I posted yesterday that the whole thing is a complex series of events with potential pitfalls/hurdles along the way; it's not a clean nor nailed evolution. The Arctic heights are a hugely fundamental part of the evolution- these are often modelled poorly at 96 hrs, let alone 168hrs+ Without the correct strength or alignment, the UK runs the risk of seeing a brief brush with cold uppers rather than a more prolonged and deep seated event. The EC 12z shows this perfectly. 

Ergo, I simply cannot get carried away with this potential cold spell at this moment. Nothing to do with negativity or winter forecasts, as I've already said.

I'll give it to ya ..your a knowledgeable member..and reserved in your assumptions.(canny probably)...but we'll get ya off the fence soon ..I'M SURE!!...

[Don]

18 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

My thoughts posted on here have nothing to do with being negative nor any winter forecast (which was an absurd thing to mention).

I posted yesterday that the whole thing is a complex series of events with potential pitfalls/hurdles along the way; it's not a clean nor nailed evolution. The Arctic heights are a hugely fundamental part of the evolution- these are often modelled poorly at 96 hrs, let alone 168hrs+ Without the correct strength or alignment, the UK runs the risk of seeing a brief brush with cold uppers rather than a more prolonged and deep seated event. The EC 12z shows this perfectly. 

Ergo, I simply cannot get carried away with this potential cold spell at this moment. Nothing to do with negativity or winter forecasts, as I've already said.

I think in a nutshell, the outlook continues to be uncertain especially with arctic heights poorly modelled at such short time frames?  With this in mind, the EC12z could well be wrong, too?  However, the Metoffice appear to be confident of a cold outcome in the mid term at least, although this is by no means a guarantee of course!

Edited January 30, 2021 by Don

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, 38.7°C said:

I am not at all convinced. I will believe the cold charts when they are within a good three/four days range. I still can't believe people are still getting very overly excited over what is being shown at 8 to 10 days. Charts like this have been at Day 8 to 10 since mid November, is it that not enough to convince anyone they wont verify?

 Am I another planet? Cold charts are showing 5 days away not FI? GFS 18z has real cold air moving into Scotland on Wednesday so terribly far away. 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

38 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

A few random snaps from the 18z gefs. @mslp @500,s @2ms anyone craving a possible noted winter outbreak...not happy with these circuit=dynamics need to ask themselves if they ever will be .ciao gunnight✌✌

Looks pretty good to me mate

[Geordiesnow]

57 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

My thoughts posted on here have nothing to do with being negative nor any winter forecast (which was an absurd thing to mention).

I posted yesterday that the whole thing is a complex series of events with potential pitfalls/hurdles along the way; it's not a clean nor nailed evolution. The Arctic heights are a hugely fundamental part of the evolution- these are often modelled poorly at 96 hrs, let alone 168hrs+ Without the correct strength or alignment, the UK runs the risk of seeing a brief brush with cold uppers rather than a more prolonged and deep seated event. The EC 12z shows this perfectly. 

Ergo, I simply cannot get carried away with this potential cold spell at this moment. Nothing to do with negativity or winter forecasts, as I've already said.

Of course everything has to set up perfectly but the models are definately trending dropping some of the PV into Scandinavia and if heights do develop in the mid Atlantic and the Norwegian sea then an easterly is certainly possible. The ECM shows its not as certain as some may think and at this stage, its not a  beast from the east but colder weather from the east is certainly a possibility. 

One could argue, Scotland and Northern England are set to have a weekend of cold winds from the east although snowfall looks very limited in these places. 

 

 

[Kentspur]

Icon 0z a bit of a minefield with a low to the NW complicating things and those pesky heights over the Med preventing a "Genoa low" and uppers not that great in the South/SE/SW. I think we could be going down the slower route here like some other model runs yesterday. Its not bad for the far North/NE though.

Edited January 30, 2021 by Kentspur

[Battleground Snow]

A bit messy at 144 on the Ukmo, but happy enough it's nothing like the ECM.

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Kentspur]

9 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

A bit messy at 144 on the Ukmo, but happy enough it's nothing like the ECM.

 

Just got to watch that area of low heights over Southern Greenland!

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Just got to watch that area of low heights over Southern Greenland!

GFS shoves that low up the west of Greenland, much to be resolved.

[tight isobar]

The snow machine potential..in the 00z is ridiculous!! Conversion..then runner features with more than amicable overhead sourcing..I'll cut n -run at this point ' as the variation is fraught past this prog..yet filled with gold..imo obviously!!!

[Daniel*]

UKMO is being annoying this morning low just gets stuck there in Irish Sea being a nuisance not that bad away from that easterlies ready to pounce Scotland sees them first arriving Wednesday. 

 

NH profile UKMO T144 against ECM 12z clear to see former is better. 

[Battleground Snow]

I like the look of the gem here at 162

I think it will go on to be a very good run and maybe raise heights towards greenland later on

[Kentspur]

Coldest uppers clinging on to the SE/EA in fi as the high pays the NW a visit.

 

Could this be a relaxation before resurgence?

[Kentspur]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

I like the look of the gem here at 162

I think it will go on to be a very good run and maybe raise heights towards greenland later on

Nice to see the + uppers over somewhere else instead of Kent and Sussex

[Daniel*]

Not much in way of snow mainly between 6-8th for southeastern parts similarly to pub run following a cold high, very cold indeed with ice days if it went like this the CET would be well down.

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Nice to see the + uppers over somewhere else instead of Kent and Sussex

Wow, it's a stunner at 198!

Please follow the gem later ECM like you sometimes do!

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

UKMO is being annoying this morning low just gets stuck there in Irish Sea being a nuisance not that bad away from that easterlies ready to pounce Scotland sees them first arriving Wednesday. 

 

NH profile UKMO T144 against ECM 12z clear to see former is better. 

A lot of vision in the polar field annom(which is of mass importance @obviously!..as placement =and form...but the African sourced=iberian injections..are by far the fly in the ointment!!   For ONCE..can our latitude shortwaves behave...and put a bridge on a basis...and aid rather than scupper!?. Although the N-hemisphere is as good as it gets...should that polar slink holds and places correct.then the forcing will be too much for any Mediterranean punch to the mid=highers...crazy =quality are model watching at its very best  right now.

[Daniel*]

The Canadian vortex blows up into a monster compared to earlier run not what we really want to see. 

[Kentspur]

A light streamer set up 09/02 in the SE -6c uppers clinging on hardly a beast but I'd take it would be the only white stuff I've seen all winter

[tight isobar]

The jet profile is ..this is where to be looking as height mechanisms run flat in that med=iberian geographical...the 850 hpa,s will find there way ..with such synoptic....mind you by this point you wouldn't be discouraged anyway..(as they are))...

Edited January 30, 2021 by tight isobar