Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Battleground Snow]

6 minutes ago, Cold Winter said:

Ish. Now we need to see consistency but good steps this morning 

Cptec and navgem are onbaord

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Well well well. Thought we may have had a hangover from the pub run last night. But it has decided to go Ibiza style!! 

The ECM is looking to be the one with a load of scrambled egg on its face at the moment! Like a greasy spoon breakfast! 

In awe at this mornings runs. Fantastic. 

[ICE COLD]

Sorry haven’t read through forum no time . Absolutely stunning output across the board . 
 

ECM  you naughty naughty boy .

Edited February 1, 2021 by ICE COLD

[kold weather]

Great runs this morning.

Only slight concern from the GFS ensembles in particular mainly for the SE is there is a number that struggle to get the cold air in, instead the LP ends up a little too far north we end up in a airflow that may not be supportive of snow whilst the cold stuff flows in over the rest of the country around that LP.

Very double edged sword that evolution though, as it could also bring a pretty large snow event.

Fine margins indeed!

[That ECM]

All at t144.

[Duane S.]

The 00z suite is pretty monumental.

However, I would say anything but cross model agreement, though all roads seem to lead to snow this morning (unless you watched the overnight BBC weather for the week, which has no mention of snow or anything particularly cold over the weekend and then shows the entire country basking in mild south westerlies by early next week, staggeringly poor, just the smallest mention of an easterly at the end)

GFS- steadfastly resolute with its consistent evolution of dropping energy south, leading to a classic strengthening easterly / nor easterly ,

UKMO going down the Dutch lp route after scooting the pressure system eastwards initially

ECM, still dawdling in comparison, slower to drop, but when it does, oh boy...

All sorts of permutations thereafter (from the incredible to the meh to the awful), so little to be taken from that right now.

[Sky Full]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Sorry haven’t read through forum no time . Absolutely stunning output across the board . 
 

ECM  you naughty naughty boy .

So much blue on your charts above.....looks genuinely cold and at exactly the right time of winter, too.  This could be a very memorable event especially for the eastern side of the country.  

[Scandinavian High.]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Great runs this morning.

Only slight concern from the GFS ensembles in particular mainly for the SE is there is a number that struggle to get the cold air in, instead the LP ends up a little too far north we end up in a airflow that may not be supportive of snow whilst the cold stuff flows in over the rest of the country around that LP.

Very double edged sword that evolution though, as it could also bring a pretty large snow event.

Fine margins indeed!

Well if ecm says I’m getting snow I’m happy with that

[Griff]

Gem, ecm, ukmo all bring the cold. 

This is certainly a step towards unity. 

GFS op and //... Obviously not quite as stunning as last nights pub runs but still keep the UK in the game. 

@That ECM has got it right. 144

Everything else is still all to play for. 

Far better than I had hoped this morning. 

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Well if ecm says I’m getting snow I’m happy with that

The good news is if we do end up getting a LP, if we can be on the right side of it we are going to get a large snow event. Such LPs in the past have been responsible for some of our largest snow events in the southern half of the country in the last 20 years.

[tight isobar]

2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

-10c mean into the East of the U.K. by next Sunday, any moisture will be snow!!! I think the cold is nailed, now we just need to monitor snow events within it.

This freeze looks like lasting around 5 days on the Op, pretty good and when these freezes arrive they often prove hard to get rid of!!

These are fast becoming...locked in synoptics...and gaining rapid in compare =@cross model.

[feb1991blizzard]

Chart of the day - Lows just dumbelling  around the uk in -14c air.

@tight isobar  24 hours more runs then i think we are definitely in business, i did say 2 days ago that i would call it after 48 more hours but the fact that its the first really good ECM op and still awaiting eps means FI is a lot closer than usual this time.

Edited February 1, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[offerman]

On 31/01/2021 at 04:10, Daniel said:

Brilliant UKMO this morning the beast is knocking

Sorry for daft question. 
But  why is the UKMO met office charts in French ? 
Do they pay the French for the data? 
Who produces the ECM European Central model ? 
Thanks and apologies again as I genuinely don’t know ! 

[That ECM]

JFF. Look at the very cold air just se of England. Cold chart anyway but as it’s so close may as well visit.

[frosty ground]

2 hours ago, Battleground Snow said:

Coventry hits -10 on the mean

I've also added Manchester so Feb can marvel at the clustering

P9 can get lost on that chart

 

Beware that straggling ensemble 

[loafer]

8 minutes ago, offerman said:

Sorry for daft question. 
But  why is the UKMO met office charts in French ? 
Do they pay the French for the data? 
Who produces the ECM European Central model ? 
Thanks and apologies again as I genuinely don’t know ! 

He’s viewing the charts on Meteociel.fr which is a French site.

[Captain Shortwave]

Looking at the GFS vs the rest, a half way house solution would probably take that low roughly through southern England or even the English Channel (quicker ENE developing than the Euros but offering lower heights than the GFS). That sounds about ideal.

[Matt H]

Beautiful ECM 00z ensemble mean to round off a fantastic morning of upgrades!

t144:

t168:

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Frosty Winter

[mulzy]

FWIW, Ext EPS mean fairly disappointing - jet too far north allowing heights to build in Europe.  Near term EPS fantastic!

[Tim Bland]

Such a relief to be able to post...Fantastic ECM.. Snow from the east and then from the west. No one misses out in this run!!

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

FWIW, Ext EPS mean fairly disappointing - jet too far north allowing heights to build in Europe.  Near term EPS fantastic!

All the means are consistent on that stronger Atlantic in the extended period but there is always something that the extended modelling misses ...... we need to hope thats stronger heights to our northwest 

[DJ Fart]

Wow. I was up until the early hours looking at all this and opened my phone with one hand over my eyes, expecting to see massive downgrades, but just wow. The fact we are starting to see degrees of cross model agreement is encouraging, but we've still seen it go wrong from here...I'm almost dreading that feeling of crushing disappointment that comes with overnight washing away of the amazing synoptics in offer...but until then it's nice to dream. 

 

Fingers crossed for all my fellow South Eastern chums and for all further afield. 

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

FWIW, Ext EPS mean fairly disappointing - jet too far north allowing heights to build in Europe.  Near term EPS fantastic!

I'm not too concerned about that at this stage for two reasons:

1: The models/enesembles were well out in the Atlantic low for this weekend even at just 96hrs.

2: I we have the cold in place, any breakdown will likely come from the SW and would be highly snowy for a time.

[DJ Fart]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Such a relief to be able to post...Fantastic ECM.. Snow from the east and then from the west. No one misses out in this run!!

Is that a METRE of snow for the Cairngorms?! How cruel for the Scottish ski industry that this should happen in a national lockdown

 

[TSNWK]

6 minutes ago, mulzy said:

FWIW, Ext EPS mean fairly disappointing - jet too far north allowing heights to build in Europe.  Near term EPS fantastic!

Hello. Please can define timeframe for near term EPS and e t.

thank you