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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
1 minute ago, swilliam said:

It is nearly always an exact replica of the UKMO 120 chart - looks like it to

Yes that's true , hoping we seem some sort of coming together this time tomorrow 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

The gfs is reload after reload,...Fantastico

 

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snowbob Seasoned

snowbob

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Posted
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

We seem to have both unheard of senior meteorologists that no1s ever heard of!?...and weather mediums. With Crystal balls on board tonight????

Wtf

love it

thats good right !!

Ian mccaskill will always get my number one 

do you see the ECM falling in by the 0z mate or a slow burner to a halfway house

cheers tight 

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
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Posted

image.thumb.png.d031e0ecef0c7a1d0614bd1e6288fbc3.png

Meanwhile the Control is superb

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
23 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 18z // doesn’t follow it’s brother and puts the oomph into the northern of the two lows I mentioned earlier, the one that affects the UK, so we won’t see a Cobra run off of this...

89074498-AB31-4A41-A7B2-8325E6158AA9.thumb.png.179b806d093ee313c6cfe719023c1509.png

You might want to check again Mike, at T132 it looks at least as good as the op!

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
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Posted (edited)

Not strictly model related (sorry mods) but I vowed not to check in here or the charts today and give myself a day off...  

 

Edit: model related, I have never seen an op run that has lasted for over a week of cold like this. Probably won't ever again? 

Edited by Griff
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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted

By 300 hours plus the GFS gets so sozzled it falls of its pub chair and hits its head on the floor. So far out to be irrelevant but in deep FI some of the most bizarre charts i've ever seen.

So, tonight looking much better. For much of UK cold is 'almost' a given but for the far south / south east its still on a knife edge so for those of us in the SE in particular get ready with the headache tablets in case the morning brings a hangover!!

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WorldExplore Explorer

WorldExplore

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham Airport
  • Weather Preferences: Chasing Snow
  • Location: Birmingham Airport
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS, on top of everything else, delivers a lovely purple rabbit at T312

A7D585C4-FEF8-47BC-B983-54E5038D9617.thumb.png.d24cf108262678c0c950b58d97bb8da1.png

A duck if you tilt the phone to the right and an rare artic hare facing the opposite way. ❄❄❄❄ 

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snowbob Seasoned

snowbob

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Posted
Just now, Griff said:

Not strictly model related (sorry mods) but I vowed not to check in here or the charts today and give myself a day off...  

never mind 

was worth it griff

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

How about flatliners, we're into extasy here!! good few nearing the -15 mark - is the tide turning in our favour.

image.thumb.png.737b7dd15320fcee50efe97160d448a9.png

There’s some tasty runs in there! Mean is -8.5 in the south and there’s some -15 members in there for next Sunday !

17239BBA-1553-4FBC-8DD6-524C230DFD99.jpeg

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted

The op and control side by side at 180...

gfsnh-0-180.thumb.png.2b8f0b4b4714ace74cec681552bda1f8.pnggensnh-0-1-180.thumb.png.c58e26e7f68ef902f28fce8af6b37e55.png

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
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Posted

1991 revisited

image.thumb.png.d0cd477ccb05ad6b85a6d564232ad048.png

image.thumb.png.f0b799ca3fcf0ca1de407c8d34f2c671.png

image.thumb.png.2805862992325f61721dc52799a604e8.png

The Control takes us back 30 years , if that happened then I'd happily look to spring thereafter .....stunning

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The op and control side by side at 180...

gfsnh-0-180.thumb.png.2b8f0b4b4714ace74cec681552bda1f8.pnggensnh-0-1-180.thumb.png.c58e26e7f68ef902f28fce8af6b37e55.png

Case of spot the difference there, Si!  

What has stuck me about this upcoming spell of weather, which admittedly hasn’t happened yet, let’s not forget that, is it isn’t just a Greenland ridge or a scandi high that is being progged, it is a full-on cross polar flow, complete slice and dice of the trop vortex.  This doesn’t happen very often and we still need to play to luck that we’re on the right side of it but it is awesome synoptics being shown, so interesting. 

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, snowbob said:

Wtf

love it

thats good right !!

Ian mccaskill will always get my number one 

do you see the ECM falling in by the 0z mate or a slow burner to a halfway house

cheers tight 

It's got to align sooner or later imo..00z could be the suite...tomorrows 12z should answer 1 way or other...against competing outs...gfs etc.

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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted
10 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I'm sure 12 hours extra on the para is not going to make it turn from day 6 to day 10.

I hope so but we will see in the next day or 2 whether it gets watered down then the great charts come back around day 9 or 10.

just for once I really hope these kind of charts make it and come off I mean that would be simply amazing 

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
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Posted

image.thumb.png.b3a85ca9fd941d5d48bd6d64907a6d01.pngimage.thumb.png.24395ae039d5ee3be3d5d3550782c186.png

Just taking stock a moment. How often do you see a low adjusted 8 mb weaker from one run to the next... at only 4 days range?

Monumental shift but could it be a fluctuation? Tomorrow really should tell us.

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Complete joke of graphics and did not even fully reflect this mornings ECM run. Most of Scotland is forecast to remain in the cold air yet you think they are forecast double figures going by that chart. The deepness of the yellow/orange colours is also misleading. 

Anyways if the low does not faff on like the GFS is showing then it will be dark blues on the weather maps and not yellows. Goes to show if everything does come together, you can get some very good results on a cold POV. I don't think today's ECM is that bad, snow potential I'm sure but no deep cold and as some mention, it's alot more risky longer term if the low did stay parked over the UK. 

 

That isn't the Wednesday chart that Nick Miller is showing on the BEEB website though - apologies wrong timeframe 

Edited by MJB
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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

I hope so but we will see in the next day or 2 whether it gets watered down then the great charts come back around day 9 or 10.

just for once I really hope these kind of charts make it and come off I mean that would be simply amazing 

You're  right we are not there yet, we need to get this inside 72 hours, but it's the strong favourite right now

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