Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Updated_Weather]

In BBCs defence even though they use old ECM data.. she did say that “cold air could win out” - 

really poor really to use one model and not a blend like MetO.. 

on that note.. great 18z also I hear 18z ECM is also pretty good

[Daniel*]

This is what you call a cobra run, snowier than 2018 for much of SE if only! Am I allowed to say we deserve it, after all the cold rain we’ve had. 

[WorldExplore]

GFS -> Oh Mommy

[bluearmy]

Classic pub run !

[Captain Shortwave]

One word to describe the GFS pub run is ballsy. Like someone who has had a few drinks and thinks they are hard enough to taken on the large man at the pool table.

 

An easterly with 850s down to -13c should be good enough for snow showers probably Suffolk northwards with the threat of frontal snow in the far south. Ice days likely if this came off and this is now in the semi reliable (or should be in normal times).

Is this a one off or will we see the other models back this, given the key low is already at the day 4 mark.

[abovefreezing]

It's all in FI. SEVEN days out. La-la land for sure. This wouldn't be the first time professional forecasters directly contradict these dodgy models. Guess who is normally right.

Watch it get pushed back each day. I've got my safety helmet on, in case of flying toys!

 

[MJB]

Stunning run ...........love it to have support

[Mike Poole]

Hey, this is beyond satire now GFS!  T210:

Earth shattering run...

[Updated_Weather]

Hmm look at the uppers on the GFS 18z - all looks marginal to me

[Man With Beard]

Dessert time! D9, this could be sensational, already cold, an Arctic low coming to muscle in. 

[chionomaniac]

Well, well, well. The 18ZGFS is truly a spectacular run. The -10°C 850 isotherm is somewhere over the UK for over 100 continuous hours.  Can’t remember seeing that before.

[ICE COLD]

We’re still going at 216

[MJB]

1 minute ago, abovefreezing said:

It's all in FI. SEVEN days out. La-la land for sure. This wouldn't be the first time professional forecasters directly contradict these dodgy models. Guess who is normally right.

Watch it get pushed back each day. I've got my safety helmet on, in case of flying toys!

 

I'm not so sure , I have seen a forecast from SKL and NM both saying colder at the end of the week 

[Decemberof2010]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

BOOM!

Just when you thought we couldn't get anymore upgrades we have Feb Boooooming. All we need now is Crewe on board and it's game set and match

 

[kold weather]

Really rather crazy run from the 18z GFS, definitely a noteworthy cold spell this run.

Ensembles just starting to trickle out, I'm going to let them go out a little further before passing judgement, but they look ok broadly out to 108hrs.

[chicken soup]

16 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Bosh. -12 hpa a plenty and with stored backing...the flow is almost perfect on view....winter proper hits our shores...some bk peddling from certain agencies for sure the next 24 hrs!!!

Your posting like this is actually going to happen... This is just another pub run special which we get from time to time.. Won't be anything like this on the morning run. 

Edited January 31, 2021 by chicken soup

[Arrows1986]

2 minutes ago, abovefreezing said:

It's all in FI. SEVEN days out. La-la land for sure. This wouldn't be the first time professional forecasters directly contradict these dodgy models. Guess who is normally right.

Watch it get pushed back each day. I've got my safety helmet on, in case of flying toys!

 

10 days is FI but you're right..it won't come off likes this..let people have their fun though! 

 

When can we expect your analysis?

[Stormeh]

Great 18z! 

Hopefully you guys down south will be building snowmen soon enough ️

[Updated_Weather]

Don’t think boris needs to worry about people being out if GFS18z is right.. too bloody cold

[pinball wizard]

Will it snow in Carlisle?

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Just when you thought we couldn't get anymore upgrades we have Feb Boooooming. All we need now is Crewe on board and it's game set and match

 

 

Long way to go still yet, need it or something similar to verify!

[abovefreezing]

Just now, Arrows1986 said:

10 days is FI but you're right..it won't come off likes this..let people have their fun though! 

 

When can we expect your analysis?

When there's 24 hours or less in the forecast!

 

[Updated_Weather]

2 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

You posting like this is actually going to happen... This is just another pub run special which we get from time to time.. Won't be anything like this on the morning run. 

And how do you know? You see in the future?

[Arrows1986]

Just now, abovefreezing said:

When there's 24 hours or less in the forecast!

 

Very good

[JoeShmoe]

1 minute ago, chicken soup said:

You posting like this is actually going to happen... This is just another pub run special which we get from time to time.. Won't be anything like this on the morning run. 

Yes you’d have to think this must be an outlier in the ensembles and will be moderated by tomorrow am but great fun to look at!