Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Allseasons-Si]

A cleaner look at the 850's and PPN.

London and Sheffield.

it does look quite dry when the cold arrives but i am sure that the warm-er than usual north sea would produce streamers in the mix.

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[saintkip]

8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

I'll leave this here..temp plots..eps 12zgeos!!

Temps look average, am I missing something?

[Allseasons-Si]

The Parra at day ten,...expect fireworks from here...

[Allseasons-Si]

The control.

big cold pool out east incoming.

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by Allseasons-si
Wrong 850's

[tight isobar]

9 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Temps look average, am I missing something?

They are MST,S @mean surface temperature!. And a classped evaluation. These are progressing as we gain and on face value non impressive..but believe me they are, in the general scheme. And as again are a snippet not as a singular p!ot (as such)... The mass pooling and consequential=flow we are likely locking into speaks for itself.....

[saintkip]

Just now, tight isobar said:

They are MST,S @mean surface temperature!. And a classped evaluation. These are progressing as we gain and on face value non impressive..but believe me they are, in the general scheme. And as again are a snippet not as a singular p!ot (as such)... The mass pooling and consequential=flow we are likely locking into speaks for itself.....

You’ve lost me. Bring on the beast (in 12 days maybe)

[Duane S.]

D7-D10 cold spell starts showing in the charts and I guarantee nobody, but nobody, will be saying it’s nailed on. Yet the very second that we get slightly less good charts appear (as we do in the run up to every cold spell) then that’s it, winter’s over, and it’s taken as absolute gospel  It must be so exhausting, emotionally and mentally, following each OP run like this!? I suppose it’s always been like that on here, so it isn’t ever going to change.

So, these 12Zs that were such a disaster...What have we got? I’m only talking out to about D8, at best (in this situation it would be pointless looking further out, other than for trends, run to equivalent run), UKMO, GFS and GFSP OPs look absolutely fine and are heading the right way. ECM definitely doesn’t look right, it’s evolution says I haven’t got a scooby how to interpret this unusual set up. Most importantly, the GEFS Mean is flipping stunning 

OK, there has to be a chance that one or two, like the ECM OP, have indeed picked up a cold-scuppering signal, one that will end up being correct, but it flies in the face of most of the data I’m looking at so right now, so am giving it little credence right now. As maligned as they are, Exeter are normally more correct than 99% on here, so having them on board as well is huge.

‘Downgrades’ absolutely do reverse, in response to a comment earlier. Define downgrade? Very subjective on here I’d suggest. It is about the context. Is the ‘downgrade’ going somewhat to totally against the grain? Or is it merely backing up the background signals? How many times have we seen those decent Op charts but, if we were honest with ourselves at the time, were  ‘against the run of play’ as it were? As in, Exeter were firmly against and/or the all important CPC 6-10 day 500mb outlook said no. A lot. But it’s not the case this time, the dice are loaded in our favour.

All the signs remain that February could be . Keep the faith.

[kumquat]

30 minutes ago, jacke said:

You simply love shooting everything down

He's also a realist.

[Badgers01]

25 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Temps look average, am I missing something?

No they look really meh - not sure they make the point that some people think they do !

[saintkip]

1 minute ago, kumquat said:

He's also a realist.

He’s also looking after his winter forecast

[weechow]

For those worrying, Let’s remember trend is our friend.  This time last week I think we were looking at a notable spell of southwesterly winds....Now though - hello where is the zonality I’m used too??  Of course the models will differ each run, but what I see is a strong trend for an easterly, in February......wow and it looks like the odds are in our favour this time, even for Kent, maybe. The Med warmth will dissipate south  - 200% 

[blizzard81]

Anybody who has been following the models for a decent length of time knows not to take the gfs pub runs anywhere near literally. Especially after a downgrade 12z ecm suite. I'll leave it at that. I'm hoping against hope that the morning ecm suite and op switch back but experience tells me - no way. 

[MJB]

17 minutes ago, saintkip said:

You’ve lost me. Bring on the beast (in 12 days maybe)

Where are you getting 12 days from ........you've lost me 

[Klippieboo10]

People on here are losing the plot 

[Don]

34 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Temps look average, am I missing something?

Slightly above average in the south....

[tight isobar]

8 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

No they look really meh - not sure they make the point that some people think they do !

I'm going to have to put myself out here and explain=compute some graphics..some Clearly not reading these plots correct!!!

[MJB]

Control at the death is a belter 

240 mean

[kumquat]

17 minutes ago, saintkip said:

He’s also looking after his winter forecast

Well Crewe says it how he sees it and posts when things turn around on his thoughts. Anyway, it's the usual pushing into the future of the models.

Nirvana always out at day 10 and beyond.

Hopefully, this will be the time when we can start a proper countdown because we'll soon be running out of time, but I won't be surprised if we get scuppered, yet again.

The SSWs/warmings are a curse as much as they're a potential boon. They offer much promise, but seem to send the modelling into more chaos than normal. Not surprising really, as the already complex discretised partial differential equations for Temp and Pressure over any particular mesh node are set about the head by even more variables.

Anyway, 18z 240 looks good at present, so I'll live in hope that nothing went wrong in the data before it gets there, from now.

Edited January 30, 2021 by kumquat

[SLEETY]

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

Control at the death is a belter 

240 mean

Control is awesome, if that verifies be heavy snow and ice days

[Allseasons-Si]

-14 breached on the control run

but anyway this is in la la land and has every possibility of happening somewhere down the line in the next two weeks as these cold upper keep on showing somewhere in the ops/control and ens

as regards to earlier timeframes upto 120(the midweek snow event)there is still a lot of chopping and changing in the models,even the ICON,does this push further north or south,this has been discussed quite a lot over the past week or so as to where the boundary line will be,history tells us a  move more southwards and this has been a reoccurring theme the past few weeks,so where do we end up in reality?,...that speaks for words

we have to get hurdle 1 sorted first and that is how far the low will end up SE past 120

so in stages

1,how far south will the trough disrupt further SE at 96

2,can we get the low to head SE into Genoa to prop the high in a more favorable position to advect colder air west from the east 

3,how high can the heights push NE to join the Arctic high for a cleaner NE flow

4,sustaining the cold pattern,...keep the low heights into Europe whilst the high knocks about to the NW/N/NE,...retrogression

so plenty going on and to look out for,this is an interesting situation that we could be highly rewarded if all falls right.

[Badgers01]

8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

I'm going to have to put myself out here and explain=compute some graphics..some Clearly not reading these plots correct!!!

No need I can read them just fine ! 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

I am not at all convinced. I will believe the cold charts when they are within a good three/four days range. I still can't believe people are still getting very overly excited over what is being shown at 8 to 10 days. Charts like this have been at Day 8 to 10 since mid November, is it that not enough to convince anyone they wont verify? 

[Cold Winter Night]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Middle of the day in any sunshine and light winds, should start to feel quite pleasant the further into Feb we go. Around Feb 15th the sun gets above the houses opposite and starts to warm the front of the house. 

That's why as you go through February, having a cold pool sat on top of us without snow falling is pretty pointless.

You Brits really need to learn how to skate!
That way you can enjoy cold spells even if they are dry

Go find a lake or a pond, put on those skates, and listen to the singing sound the ice makes as you go (Do you sense how I yearn for that to come to Holland?)

The 18z leaves enough room for that anyway. Nice run, nice GEFS. Good to have that before going to bed, instead of the 12z.

Edited January 30, 2021 by Cold Winter Night

[tight isobar]

10 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

No need I can read them just fine ! 

Great. AGAIN these surface plots are as vague as things get and are for generate substance given run to run suites.. Let alone frame per frame!..the upper graphs @layer levels of 850=t2m are FAR more reliable for obvious reasons...but as you say you understand that !!!...so we are so we done on this one ☝!!!..

 

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by tight isobar

[kumquat]

5 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

You Brits really need to learn how to skate!
That way you can enjoy cold spells even if they are dry

Go find a lake or a pond, put on those skates, and listen to the singing sound the ice makes as you go (Do you sense how I yearn for that to come to Holland?)

The 18z leaves enough room for that anyway. Nice run, nice GEFS. Good to have that before going to bed, instead of the 12z.

I used to skate back in the 80s. But even that was indoors. We'd be in some kind of Damian under the ice scenario if we tried skating on ponds over here south of the Lake District.