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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


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Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
    2 hours ago, Man Without Beard said:

    GEFS mean showed a 1030mb Scandi High on all runs except one between T360 and T0 - that's about 60 runs. I remember because I checked each one at the time!

    ECM ensemble mean was broadly on the same page but not as convincingly as GFS.

    Op runs didn't do too badly but more dramas than the ensemble means.

    Bit different this time as I think we're on a much more tricky trajectory. 

     So if I remember correctly was it not the icon did quite well during that episode I think it was the first model to pick it up first the bfte in 2018.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Well just as the pub run starts trickling, a word on the background signals, AAM is forecast by CFS to stay just above average for the foreseeable.  

    597D295F-C2AB-413D-9655-9FF217E48507.thumb.png.185698f83b5948b536b9e9080d777da0.png

    The MJO looks about to go haywire in phases 6 and 7 according to GEFS - one member has gone off the chart, I hope it will be OK...

    012F6AF6-B01D-4B7D-AD2B-7D2D594C8CD7.thumb.gif.dee277d25432b80b18148d00f965fe9d.gif

    But we know the driver for amplification is there, we are seeing it all over the modelling, aren’t we....while we are producing pages and pages of discussion about the behaviour of one small low near Ireland.  The perils of being a weather enthusiast in a small island off the Atlantic.  

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Waterford Airport
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Waterford Airport
    5 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

     So if I remember correctly was it not the icon did quite well during that episode I think it was the first model to pick it up first the bfte in 2018.

    Yeah that's my recollection as well. All others dropped it while Icon held firm. All others eventually came back in line. Icons finest moment but hasn't really kicked on since unfortunately. 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    2 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

    The sun strength was probably the difference between the severe spell that we got, and the historic spell that it could have been had it occurred a month earlier.

    Absolutely. Even just two weeks earlier would have seen a big difference.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Location: Basingstoke
    Just now, Jason M said:

    Absolutely. Even just two weeks earlier would have seen a big difference.  

    It was historic

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    image.thumb.png.37b7c82e17e617034a3b5f45117c8bb5.png

    ICON 120h 

    looks ok 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    2 minutes ago, saintkip said:

    It was historic

    But it could have been even better. The sun strength was a factor during that spell and that is just basic fact. Had that landed in mid Feb rather than the very end of the month you could have taken a few more degrees off the temperature and the snow would not have melted every time the sun came out despite very low temperatures (at least not as quickly). 

    Anyway, its probably starting to move off topic so I'll leave there and we can just agree to disagree 😀

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    GFS 18z T72 compared with 12z T78.  Look at the two lows highlighted, the southern one (black) is deeper, the northern one (red) shallower, this should weaken the system over the UK:

    5E026F15-FABA-439B-BC8F-780380069912.thumb.jpeg.e07e94f36cc3c98a5d4931d678619f25.jpeg24339003-1CB2-4B58-8D8E-F0A92BB08889.thumb.png.a69d91a9d709402851c07d14f6b7a783.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    I'm watching out for the GFS blowing up a massive low over the UK on one of the next few op runs. It has a tendency to do this and I'm sort of wondering why it hasn't happened yet - it normally blows them up more than ECM!

    GFS 18Z - why am I slightly nervous about milder air getting in from the SE? If it doesn't, it should go very cold very quick.

    Edited by Man Without Beard
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Does not look like ecm at 120 hours!!why do i get this feeling we COULD be looking at some juicy charts in the morning!!👀

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    Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
    3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    GFS pub run special, NH vortex sliced like butter, T120:

    D5FD2BAB-20EF-49F3-8810-1198BAD0F2EA.thumb.png.ca89e64ca71b3945006814d8c9e7e268.png

    I repeat, T120!

    If something was going to blow up at 120 it would be on the GFS, positive 😎

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    image.thumb.png.6bd66a37ea08f60fa9788d541fb72d42.png

    image.thumb.png.f1eed7795b6334db591e59ee17db06c8.png

    Saturday morning the cold air is winning 

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    11 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    GFS 18Z - why am I slightly nervous about milder air getting in from the SE? If it doesn't, it should go very cold very quick.

    Certainly a risk, though a risk that could have a huge upswing if we get lucky, as a stalled out frontal boundary that we are on the north side of would bring a large event.

    Still its something to watch, the models are very close for the SE it has to be said.

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    Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton
    1 minute ago, Matthew Gill said:

    Jet at 132 👍

    Screenshot_20210131-220950_Meteociel.jpg

    Took a vacation to North Africa 

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

    Great for next weekend from the GFS, this Friday forecast from the BBC looks very different though, especially for Scotland. They would be having an ice day in those uppers you’d think!! 

    0BA9B5FB-C682-4286-A8E4-81171C259DB5.png

    43D939F6-3C10-4451-87EB-F1ACBEA1B644.png

    526C6FC2-F5F1-475B-A0F0-246670BED974.png

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Blizzard incoming I reckon. Look at that clash of air over Europe!! Fasten your seatbelts everyone. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
    1 hour ago, chris55 said:

    One of the coldest means of the winter so far on the gfs 12z ensembles, 06z mean was marginally colder, but a min average of circa -9 is pretty cold. Still to much scatter for a really confident forecast but very good nonetheless. Will be interesting to see how the 18z compares.

    Operational slow getting the cold in and on the milder side from the 5th. 

    spacer.png

     

    I don't think there has been a single GFS Op over the entire weekend that hasn't been on the late side of the mean in bringing the cold in.

    Edited by The Enforcer
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