Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[northwestsnow]

EC  retreats from its miserable 00z offerings.

Phew!!!!!!!!

Edited January 31, 2021 by northwestsnow

[kold weather]

ECM is a pretty much middle ground solution.

Still somewhat more iffy for the south, BUT as explained in my previous post, we have just enough momentum in the UK low to stop the pasing from happening which puts us in a solid position.

Its not a beast (though it does start pulling in a decent easterly for Scotland.) but it is primed for a snow event from the SW/W down the line.

Snow line in this flow should only require -1/2c at 850hpa btw.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192, and now it has gone so far from what we’ve been seeing from the other models, need to check the T850s too:

Marginal for the south only, with plenty waiting in the wings!  

[sheikhy]

Actually looking forward to the 18z now!!!it seems as though even the worse outcome brings cold and snow

[Stu_London]

I think most will take a degree of marginality of what the 0z was showing - zero marginality on the run - just rain.

Still time for these to change a bit as with the overall pattern - best ECM run for at least 2-3 days

[nick sussex]

If only that damn low would just clear further to the se . And the blocking is now moving too quickly west which reduces any forcing on the pattern further east .

The day 8 saves itself as the block is then pushed further se again by the PV movement but it’s all far too nerve shredding with little margin for error earlier .

An improvement on the morning horror show but really this is edge of the seat stuff !

[Man With Beard]

I suppose one thing to note - no North Sea convection by D8, apart from Scotland.

I thought this run was going to solve things, but really it's only slightly firmed up the D4-D5 and the rest is still on the edge. Perhaps I was hoping for too much!

Edited January 31, 2021 by Man Without Beard

[tight isobar]

Vast improvement via ec -12.. Although issues remian they are shrinking...unlike the mass continental cold pool to which a few minor tweaks...and they head our way.@850 hp a drops!.tight as a drum atm....cracking stuff...unless of a nervous disposition!!!...keep watching!!!!

Edited January 31, 2021 by tight isobar

[Snowman.]

UKMO would probably be similar maybe even quicker with the cold heading south.

May delay it but could be much snowier. Swings and roundabouts.

[Phil Blake]

6 minutes ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

Hasn’t been that snowy with -7 uppers has been marginal on low ground during the day in some places !

 

3 minutes ago, MKN said:

Alot of the marginal situations we had that i assume you are referring to im guessing are around the late december cold spell. The sea temps are alot colder now which would help dew points. - 6to 8 850s would be fine for most. 

Sea temps are still slightly above average. The difference is the source of air as discussed earlier. 

[Mark wheeler]

Liking the Navgem tonight .

[sheikhy]

Put it this way would you rather the ecm or colder 850s with a sinking high!!for me ecm all the way!

[Mike Poole]

Just now, nick sussex said:

If only that damn low would just clear further to the se . And the blocking is now moving too quickly west which reduces any forcing on the pattern further east .

The day 8 saves itself as the block is then pushed further se again by the PV movement but it’s all far too nerve shredding with little margin for error earlier .

An improvement on the morning horror show but really this is edge of the seat stuff !

Certainly is Nick!  I was not expecting that the run would suddenly dump the connection with the arctic high at T168 and build heights over Greenland and even west of it, instead.  So it looks like a completely new evolution, and may therefore fall by the wayside in due course, but it is interesting.  At least ECM is consistent in being inconsistent!

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the ECM tonight at the very least delivers some cold weather. Hardly inspiring much confidence with so many little variables that could drastically change the outcome for the U.K.

[lewis clark]

9 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

 

I was thinking the same 

[MJB]

That's a snow event if ever i have seen one 

[Man With Beard]

Potential for snow from the SW by D9, but it seems pretty meaningless by this point. Models remain all over the place after D5.

[northwestsnow]

Excellent EC...

Could be a snow storm at day 10 with a big low swinging up into  cold uppers...

[MKN]

3 minutes ago, Phil Blake said:

 

Sea temps are still slightly above average. The difference is the source of air as discussed earlier. 

Above average or not they are colder by some distance compared to the 1st of jan so they will be much more conducive to snowfall. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Put it this way would you rather the ecm or colder 850s with a sinking high!!for me ecm all the way!

miles better, EC at 216, deep FI, where as the 00Z had mild SW'lys

[nick sussex]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Certainly is Nick!  I was not expecting that the run would suddenly dump the connection with the arctic high at T168 and build heights over Greenland and even west of it, instead.  So it looks like a completely new evolution, and may therefore fall by the wayside in due course, but it is interesting.  At least ECM is consistent in being inconsistent!

I think the ECM is having a meltdown . The changes between runs are laughable . Hopefully it might pick an evolution and stick with it before I’m pushing my zimmer frame around ! 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I think the ECM is having a meltdown . The changes between runs are laughable . Hopefully it might pick an evolution and stick with it before I’m pushing my zimmer frame around ! 

I'm just relieved its backed away from the 00z run Nick.

A big step in the right direction...

[Stu_London]

3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Liking the Navgem tonight .

 If the Navgem is on board then I calling the cold spell now.

In all seriousness, although the ECM has reverted to a colder solution, still no easterly and still no intra or cross model agreement. I'm thinking possibly by Tuesday or Wednesday as to whether we get the cold spell or not?

[Uncertainty]

Yes ECM!

In cricketing terms, this one’s a Guzzunder!

If you don’t like it, have 12 hours later from the 0z instead

The cricket analogy for that one would be a total collapse, usually by England. 

All in all we’re still clueless really with this horrid trough. so many of us want that long fetch unstable easterly, and that could still happen, but this time last year we were facing the true abyss (last years ECM 192 for reference, the reality was worse)

whereas this time literally anything could happen, so much to talk about. It’s a very interesting, exciting period of model watching. This day 9 ECM is a great example...has more snow potential than most years: if it slides more cold to come... if it clashes then its big snow for many... 

 

Ps Whatever you do... don’t look at the Arpege!

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Uncertainy

[Mike Poole]

16 minutes ago, MKN said:

Above average or not they are colder by some distance compared to the 1st of jan so they will be much more conducive to snowfall. 

It isn’t as clear cut as that, depends what is causing the snow, if it is frontal snow, then yes that might be true near the coast, but if it is convective snow off an easterly, you’d ideally want the sea as warm as possible and the upper (T850) temperature as cold as possible to generate convection.

Edited January 31, 2021 by Mike Poole