Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 minute ago, Continental Climate said:

The ECMWF is a bit of  wet sloppy let down. This is all slipping away I feel. 

 

1 minute ago, Lampostwatcher said:

ECM says 

Who wants some snow ❄❄❄

[Man With Beard]

T168 - starting to get somewhere - heights to the N are ok, low starting to clear out, already cold, easterly could follow.

[ICE COLD]

I know we ant got the beast but surely that’s quite snowy between 144 and 168 

[Singularity]

  

Checking the chance from the prior 00z, stronger HLB generally.

Still that opening of the door across Greenland which may cause the blocking to focus a bit far north. Something GFS has been resolutely against happening so fast.

  

...well, it almost went too far north for +168. It's edgy - but then, that's how the heaviest snowfall events tend to occur.

My chin is red from all the thinking this weekend!

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, icykev said:

Iberian high pressure pal. Would love to see it go se towards Italy . . .

Pressure is low over Iberia on that chart?

[MJB]

This could actually be a good run

[northwestsnow]

EC looks so much better than the 00z run...

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by northwestsnow

[chris55]

3 minutes ago, icykev said:

Iberian high pressure pal. Would love to see it go se towards Italy . . .

Iberian high pressure? Looks like a low pressure area to me? Its the Jet that is trapping our low in the middle.

Edited January 31, 2021 by chris55

[Tim Bland]

A band of snow heading south as that low finally collapses south east. It’s a definite move towards the GFS. I personally don’t care which direction the front comes from..East or north is fine either way I’m sure we will be talking about snow for many again next weekend

[MKN]

Just now, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

 

Lampost watcher is closer to the mark. This ecm is very close to being an absolute classic. A few adjustments earlier on and there would be no complaints at all. 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Singularity said:

My chin is red from all the thinking this weekend!

Weird, I tend to use my brain!

[kold weather]

The 12z ECM and GEM are actually very similar in evolution. The big difference is here:

That feature on the 12z GEM zips due east and stays disconnected from that LP in the middle of the Atlantic.

O the 12z ECM, it connects up and then rotates southwards. What this does is basically slow the Atlantic low down and prevents a phase like we see on the GEM. 12z GEM takes it westwards which means the fujiwara effect with the main low forces the main low much quicker to the east instead of slowing it down.

End result:

ECM gets the time to pull the cold air south. GEM doesn't as it phases with that low further west, as it gets further east due to that feature mentioned above.

That should mean the ECM is primed for any sliders. GEM is shocking because it fails to get the cold air in in the first place due to that feature.

Edited January 31, 2021 by kold weather

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168...be honest, who saw that!

 

Agreed.. I’m constantly surprised with ECM not helped by the 24 jumps I guess..

I mean 192 could boom age if the low over us goes south east or darn right grim if the lows to our south west merge.

simply no idea

[Mr snowman 2018]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I know we ant got the beast but surely that’s quite snowy between 144 and 168 

Hasn’t been that snowy with -7 uppers has been marginal on low ground during the day in some places !

[tight isobar]

@168 the ecm has ample snow ❄ up n-down the country..amicable overheads to boot...but interaction..Atlantic side...and those pesky eastern euro heights keeping at bay some true deep cold..however this could chsnge...as we gain.!!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Big vital step in the right direction!!! Happy with what I’m seeing. Big swing from this morning towards a more colder outlook. Happy days!!! 

[sheikhy]

Well well what an ecm  out the blue it seems to have rescued itself!!!cold from 120 hours with snow!!

[Griff]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168...be honest, who saw that!

 

Perhaps a small step towards the extended anomalies etc?  

[MJB]

ECM is gradually coming around to the  idea

[Snowman.]

UKMO 168 would look similiar just further south I would think.

It's okay, but compared to what the models on the 0z where showing it pales in comparison especially for those in the south. Hoping for southerly/south easterly corrections although I wouldn't put faith in it. The ECM D7 will probably be decent but its now 7 days away if not more. 

Deflated and in need of a pit stop but not out of the race.

[supernova]

Tonight's ECM certainly better than recent days but will be interesting to see where it sits in its ensembles. By no means a nailed on evolution due to such marginal differences from the trigger/limpet low - could be days not hours before this is resolved but in very general terms we are heading colder with multiple options of interest, if not quite the clean and snowy beast perhaps envisaged (yet). 

[ICE COLD]

Yep at least it’s got better

T192

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC looks so much better than the 00z run...

 

It does and the 0z was a touch better than the 12z yesterday.  It seems that ECM adjusts south and others a tad north....keeping us in the game.  Unresolved still imo

 

BFTP

[MKN]

1 minute ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

Hasn’t been that snowy with -7 uppers has been marginal on low ground during the day in some places !

Alot of the marginal situations we had that i assume you are referring to im guessing are around the late december cold spell. The sea temps are alot colder now which would help dew points. - 6to 8 850s would be fine for most. 

[icykev]

6 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Iberian high pressure? Looks like a low pressure area to me? Its the Jet that is trapping our low in the middle.

Eastern euro heights then to be precise still stopping the low going se?

Edited January 31, 2021 by icykev
See what your saying though Chris?