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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    image.thumb.png.de1624378fcc38bf16d8478a3102556b.pngimage.thumb.png.801c0a65c0607278de03696ab6cafa29.pngimage.thumb.png.5de863b7c2cb1a7c7adec1bad9000907.png 

    Try spinning, that's a good trick...

    The stronger circulation has drawn in a little more cold air than the UKMO 12z managed for Saturday. Being Arctic maritime, that should be plenty cold enough for snow UK-wide - though precipitation may be a bit scarce in the south. Funny how things go sometimes.

    This run has been so close to UKMO so far but yeah, it was a close call on whether the cold pool would wrap into the UK low or engage with the Atlantic one.

    I think if we do go down this sort of route, it's encouraging that a slower Atlantic trough reduces the risk of the cold air engaging with it, as slowing the Atlantic has been one of the trends of the past month. 

    Edited by Singularity
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    Quick summary, GFS cold and snowy by 144 Para cold and snowy by 144 Ukmo cold and snowy by 144 Gem cold and snowy by 156 ECM cold and VERY snowy by 156.  

    OMG I love this post . Shows just what a weird but wonderful bunch coldies are ! Your post in a nutshell sums up just how much this means for cold and snow lovers . Bless you Mike . 

    Yes ! Low pressure finally developing over northern Italy . A biting east ne flow heavy snow showers driven much further inland . Lots of instability . Enjoy the snow UK coldies . Really gre

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    dosen't look bad, but no easterly, right we'll see GFS gradually move towards EC tomorrow, likely on the 00Z, even on 18Z tonight

    ECM0-144.GIF?31-0

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    ECM is an improvement on last run and a slight step towards GFS, low is further south and stretching south east not traveling north like it was. Expect GFs later to step towards ECM and tomorrow ECM step towards GFS and then they will meet in the middle..see below this run Vs last 

    31934CE8-C47B-4DD9-A024-A9295B274CAB.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Chester le street
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Chester le street
    4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Absolutely, touch and go!

    T144 and it is still not certain, looks messy though:

    790A281E-9054-43BC-9622-CF86B6AE0E08.thumb.png.d97b632c9594fcef1c58e5c4d6eadfda.png

    Looks like the Canadian daughter vortex is a baby in a pram. Maybe a reminder for anyone to not throw anything out of it

    Edited by Phil Blake
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Ecm T144 - not what coldies were hoping for but cold all the same

    image.thumb.png.faa688c14a78b94188e29c6b78f6c3ed.png

    Finding hard to believe the ECM will be wrong time after time after time ... 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    Absolutely, touch and go!

    T144 and it is still not certain, looks messy though:

    790A281E-9054-43BC-9622-CF86B6AE0E08.thumb.png.d97b632c9594fcef1c58e5c4d6eadfda.png

    That was a relief ! The best we can hope for now is for the upstream low to disrupt se and the limpet low over the UK to bxgger off se at day 7. Allowing some ridging to extend sw . 

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    Just now, MJB said:

    image.thumb.png.f9bc831e4f846d89d3ea6bbcd6f9eb00.png

    Any idea why that LP just doesn't move SE ?

    It’s better at 144 than this morning 168... 12 hour not withstanding you can see the artic heights applying forcing and the low does move a little south east between 120 and 144

    168 could be a beaut if the low continues south east like other models have down around this timeframe 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, frosty ground said:

    Got to love that westerly element pulling in artic air NWS

    Mate...

    That chart looks fabulous !!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    2 minutes ago, MJB said:

    image.thumb.png.f9bc831e4f846d89d3ea6bbcd6f9eb00.png

    Any idea why that LP just doesn't move SE ?

    It probably will now, as it shouldn’t phase with the upstream one.

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    ECM 144 hrs nice NH profile,can only get colder from there.

     

    ECH1-144.thumb.png.56997152624c41ec1ad6f345841ddecb.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants

    The ECM. Actually gets the cold IMBY quicker than the GFS easterly scenario 😂🤷‍♂️

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    Posted
  • Location: SE Kent
  • Location: SE Kent
    3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    ECM 144hrs:

    Goodbye easterly, it was nice to know you!

    Hello slider and battleground, nice to see you!

    Different solution compared to the GFS, but we can work with that still, even if it does struggle to get any easterly in from that position.

    Easterly still favourite. Longevity and depth of cold is still up for grabs.,.

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

    Last sunday 24th  ECM+ 144 was mild and showing 10c By Tuesday it was showing 4,5c it has been only 3c here all day so goes to show you 96 to 120 is FI in this setup.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    Well we have separation at ECM 144 and disruption as the Atlantic low is pushed back slightly between 120 and 144 as heights build in between.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    If we can’t get some kind of sustained cold from this kind of chart, it’s a truly remarkable feat

    3910F0C9-8F5A-402C-9A13-BA5388525202.png

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    No phasing +fortunately+ the shaping is a little odd though in our part...but last frames could prove decent viewing..as the easterly is lining up @[email protected]ecm

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

    ECM 144 hrs nice NH profile,can only get colder from there.

     

    ECH1-144.thumb.png.56997152624c41ec1ad6f345841ddecb.png

    Looking at it in NH view, surely that is a big upgrade in terms of the N Atlantic and Arctic. I'd expect the rest of the run to be quite cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chester le street
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Chester le street
    1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

    ECM 144 hrs nice NH profile,can only get colder from there.

     

    ECH1-144.thumb.png.56997152624c41ec1ad6f345841ddecb.png

    Yep if that low moves ese itll be great

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    The 12z ECM is definitely got some potential at 144hrs, though its clearly worlds apart from what the 12z GFS is showing.

    Still its getting increasingly clear that the models are converging on a middle ground somewhere between the doomsday 00z ECM/12z GEM and the very gungho GFS easterlies.

    The key thing is the ECM does actually allow the cold to reach the south, even if its a little weak, it then allows any sliders to have more than a chance to bring the goods should they get going.

    Amazing to see the whole part of our hemisphere spin as well between 120-144hrs, one of the more bizarre evolution but its been consistent with that now for 3 runs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington

    The ECMWF is a bit of  wet sloppy let down. This is all slipping away I feel. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM T168...be honest, who saw that!

    0271C601-4F08-43D3-A161-EF486F7F60F9.thumb.png.2760b88786304d0bf99080233125d9b8.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
    3 minutes ago, MJB said:

    image.thumb.png.f9bc831e4f846d89d3ea6bbcd6f9eb00.png

    Any idea why that LP just doesn't move SE ?

    Iberian high pressure pal. Would love to see it go se towards Italy . . .

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    looking good ....

    spacer.png

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