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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


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Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    gfs p  brings in the deep cold air again at the end .

    Yer another good ending on the para 👍

    F843BB2A-83B9-4F9C-8460-D37E41DF1B5C.png

    8337DEEE-6E4A-4AD2-BB9F-824952153481.png

    01A14CB4-D214-4B4C-A113-2A40637FE7F0.png

    Edited by ICE COLD
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    Quick summary, GFS cold and snowy by 144 Para cold and snowy by 144 Ukmo cold and snowy by 144 Gem cold and snowy by 156 ECM cold and VERY snowy by 156.  

    OMG I love this post . Shows just what a weird but wonderful bunch coldies are ! Your post in a nutshell sums up just how much this means for cold and snow lovers . Bless you Mike . 

    Yes ! Low pressure finally developing over northern Italy . A biting east ne flow heavy snow showers driven much further inland . Lots of instability . Enjoy the snow UK coldies . Really gre

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    Some heights to the nw please ecm day 5 

    Still mighty borderline at 96hrs, though there isn't quite the SE extension of lower heights seen on the GEM which may allow this ECM 12z to look more like the UKMO tonight and hopefully bring some goodies for at least some of the country.

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    1 minute ago, Don said:

    Any delay is alarm bells.  Been here too many times before!

    Yep , those 12 hours will make all the difference 🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Matt Hugo waxing lyrical about the gefs this evening, very enthusiastic 

    Link to tweet thread 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM T120, I think we might be OK just, the weak ridge should push the low away slowly now.  Won’t know for sure til the T144...on it goes.

    EE3A8205-590F-4086-8C77-3833D42C3956.thumb.png.e51deb93b617727b67c9b0f5740ece7a.png

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    image.thumb.png.f22cc963531f5686ecf05c0d9bd125f0.png

    lol this model watching is a game 

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    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
    2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Yer anther good ending on the para 👍

     

     

    But yet again that's another 10 days away, more likely of the "RANDOM" showing southerly wind arrows forecast coming true

    Edited by Neilsouth
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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    EC 120, not sure quite what to make of it at this stage in proceedings.

    spacer.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    Just now, Mike Poole said:

    ECM T120, I think we might be OK just:

    EE3A8205-590F-4086-8C77-3833D42C3956.thumb.png.e51deb93b617727b67c9b0f5740ece7a.png

    Do you ? 

    I have just launched my laptop through the window lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 minute ago, MJB said:

    Yep , those 12 hours will make all the difference 🤣

    We will see, but not overly pleased with tonight’s runs!

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM T120, I think we might be OK just:

    EE3A8205-590F-4086-8C77-3833D42C3956.thumb.png.e51deb93b617727b67c9b0f5740ece7a.png

    Well at least it's not the same as the gem

    gemnh-0-120.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    We’d better hope those blues don’t hit the upstream low and phase at day 6 .

    Nerve shredding !

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Nope from ecm at 120 hours!!!looks worse than ukmo and quite a bit worse than gfs!!remember what i said earlier!!!it might look like a middle ground but eventually gfs will go full on ecm!!!!can it rescue it at 144 hours?!i still pray for a miracle and we can see changes earlier on the 00z run!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Well the 12z ECM is a step forward in some respects, but we still have one issue very much present:

    ECMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.252510d303e864b85d37148e5255abb8.png

    That little upper feature with lower thicknesses is going to rotate SW/S and runs a real risk of getting absorbed into the Atlantic low. This is basically what caused the GEM to be so shockingly poor the south of England as it closed the door to any real cold coming down.

    Its better, but is it going to be good enough to avoid a close but no cigar?

    Can't help but feel we are drifting away from an easterly and more towards a possible battleground type solution tonight, which obviously has its pros and cons as well depending on where you are.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    We’d better hope those blues don’t hit the upstream low and phase at day 6 .

    Nerve shredding !

    Absolutely, touch and go!

    T144 and it is still not certain, looks messy though:

    790A281E-9054-43BC-9622-CF86B6AE0E08.thumb.png.d97b632c9594fcef1c58e5c4d6eadfda.png

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    ECM 144hrs:

    Goodbye easterly, it was nice to know you!

    Hello slider and battleground, nice to see you!

    Different solution compared to the GFS, but we can work with that still, even if it does struggle to get any easterly in from that position.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire

    Before toys are launched, the 144 chart is surprisingly cold and probably snowy. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    EC playing the slow game but looks like it'll end up v cold.....

    spacer.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    image.thumb.png.f9bc831e4f846d89d3ea6bbcd6f9eb00.png

    Any idea why that LP just doesn't move SE ?

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Well the 12z ECM is a step forward in some respects, but we still have one issue very much present:

    ECMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.252510d303e864b85d37148e5255abb8.png

    That little upper feature with lower thicknesses is going to rotate SW/S and runs a real risk of getting absorbed into the Atlantic low. This is basically what caused the GEM to be so shockingly poor the south of England as it closed the door to any real cold coming down.

    Its better, but is it going to be good enough to avoid a close but no cigar?

    Can't help but feel we are drifting away from an easterly and more towards a possible battleground type solution tonight, which obviously has its pros and cons as well depending on where you are.

     

    This is a great post probably the best of the day. Clearly explains what is going on and a marked up chart. what’s not to like 👍 

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    Ok FI on EC is +144h as there are already huge changes to 00z

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