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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Anyway over to the......erratic #### model aka ecm...

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    Quick summary, GFS cold and snowy by 144 Para cold and snowy by 144 Ukmo cold and snowy by 144 Gem cold and snowy by 156 ECM cold and VERY snowy by 156.  

    OMG I love this post . Shows just what a weird but wonderful bunch coldies are ! Your post in a nutshell sums up just how much this means for cold and snow lovers . Bless you Mike . 

    Yes ! Low pressure finally developing over northern Italy . A biting east ne flow heavy snow showers driven much further inland . Lots of instability . Enjoy the snow UK coldies . Really gre

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    image.thumb.png.cd86235ee3a053f7f386daa357d03b9e.png image.thumb.png.f14d56f413024230989af529c6e8ad93.png

    Bit of a trade-off if the low stays further west, GFS-style, as opposed to east, UKMO-style.

    Many GEFS are more east like UKMO but also send the low south quicker, hence the promising look to the ensemble graph.

    ICON takes the eastward scenario a step further.


    On that basis you'd think the UKMO but shifted slightly south would be the best bet... but the table has so many options in it that I suspect the usual tricks aren't going to help us out much this time!

    ECM 12z could do just about anything really, though it's hard to see how it could do worse than its 00z run from a UK snow seeking perspective.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    Please can we keep it to the models - a random screenshot of a tv /internet forecast really isn't model discussion.

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    Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland

    ECM going to make my day.

    Maybe 'That ECM ' should be renamed to 'This ECM'. IMO its going to join UKMO. Always had faith in UKMO because its English and very rarely off the mark.

    Let it begin 🤞

    Keep the faith✌

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Better blocking to north at day 3.

    293C33CE-343B-4431-B2EB-7A944CA24A4B.thumb.png.51e305fbcad3e526c99113cfc31a1278.pngC6CE5794-1E21-460E-B3C1-5F45B6B2287C.thumb.png.86c0e5fc0384358ff0f8177db76e35a1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    42 minutes ago, Mr Brown said:

    Umm 30mm is 3cm...

     

    No - 1mm = 1cm as a general rule of thumb (though it can vary). Going by your logic, SW Derby had 150mm of rain last weekend lol 😆 

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    6 minutes ago, Paul said:

    Please can we keep it to the models - a random screenshot of a tv /internet forecast really isn't model discussion.

    Truths 🙄😂😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

    Better blocking to north at day 3.

    293C33CE-343B-4431-B2EB-7A944CA24A4B.thumb.png.51e305fbcad3e526c99113cfc31a1278.pngC6CE5794-1E21-460E-B3C1-5F45B6B2287C.thumb.png.86c0e5fc0384358ff0f8177db76e35a1.png

    For day 3 that’s a big difference. Cheers Daniel 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM T96 compared to UKMO:

    659E0713-1BB9-452E-BF7C-C1F0121E18E3.thumb.png.190f5d4eadd617f06db839ef6c740b04.png15015CE5-4E1C-4C98-A878-BCA4B8196571.thumb.gif.6635e3072bcccae33626e5118c8fcff2.gif

    Edit, what we need to see on the next one is a gap opening to join the high, its on UKMO already, here illustrated where it isn’t on the ECM 0z T120:  (12 hr time difference).

    569A3A0E-A01F-4F46-8B05-906D5F867E3E.thumb.jpeg.abb2cb6a737fa2c6a894da5c1dcc9338.jpeg

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Seems pretty identical to UKMO t96.

    F3065BB1-B1C6-42CE-9E4F-14647488F827.thumb.png.5729244dd4fba62dd449d4d92627a4b2.png3E1025DC-93C0-48F7-B24E-D6D1292617CE.thumb.png.a9c68ffc03a2b2ad83acb47c8fdb7d53.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    EC 96, slightly more elongated trough over the UK, may be a little quicker with the easterly flow.....we will have to wait and see lol.

    spacer.png

    Edited by chris55
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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
  • Weather Preferences: The colder the better
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
    1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

    For day 3 that’s a big difference. Cheers Daniel 👍

    definite improvements v the 0z

     

    Going to be a much better run this

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Welcome to numerical model forensics...

    image.thumb.png.2b0c6f5315d5d9f2e440b2cf7d539b85.pngimage.thumb.png.ac87e2ece2edf603bc0e9430cb36d3e8.pngimage.thumb.png.a208fd31b5a795c0d1c530a5e473991e.png 

    ECM 12z at +96 is  about 2/3 UKMO, 1/3 GFS.

    Whether that'll mean much going forward, I'm not sure - but it does have a lot else in common with the UKMO run so it has the ingredients to follow it.
    There's slightly more of a secondary feature look to the right flank, mind. That's what yesterday's 12z took due north to cause trouble - but it was more developed on that run.

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    Just now, Mike Poole said:

    ECM T96 compared to UKMO:

    659E0713-1BB9-452E-BF7C-C1F0121E18E3.thumb.png.190f5d4eadd617f06db839ef6c740b04.png15015CE5-4E1C-4C98-A878-BCA4B8196571.thumb.gif.6635e3072bcccae33626e5118c8fcff2.gif

    Definitive moves in the right direction from ecm...nd the shallow values look good....let's see where she goes..

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Dont get carried away guys next frame is the one ...( 120)...

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    12z ECM out to 96hrs is a shift towards the other runs, and very similar looking to the ICON 12z, and not drastically removed from UKMO either.

    Starting to feel like the models are moving towards a middle ground on both sides of the divide.

    As others have said, I can't see the 12z ECM being as bad as it was on the 00z, even if it does end up following tonights trend and being a north-south type run...better than its nothing on the 00z!

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    Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
    10 minutes ago, Paul said:

    Please can we keep it to the models - a random screenshot of a tv /internet forecast really isn't model discussion.

    Is there a specific thread for tv forecasts, I can never seem to find it? 
    Off topic but might help the thread in the long run !

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

    Definitive moves in the right direction from ecm...nd the shallow values look good....let's see where she goes..

    Compared to gem... 

    gemnh-0-96.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    gfs p  brings in the deep cold air again at the end .

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

    No complaints at 144 on the para.

    Ian f has hinted that the easterly maybe be delayed and he is as neutral as they come.

     

     

    Any delay is alarm bells.  Been here too many times before!

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    Posted
  • Location: Northampton
  • Location: Northampton

    should be better this - does not develop the new low NW Scotland

    12z

    overview_20210131_12_081.jpg

    0z

    overview_20210131_00_093.jpg

    0z

    overview_20210131_00_108.jpg

    12z

    overview_20210131_12_093.jpg

    Edited by swilliam
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