Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Matt H]

The GEFS 18z ensemble mean still looks good to me at t186 with a decent easterly wind. Hope the ECM improves again tomorrow morning.

[MJB]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

GFS certainly is giving us a great spectacle...I wonder come the 2nd week of February any of this will be that accurate?

I don't know any model can be accurate 14 days out 

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

The GEFS 18z ensemble mean still looks good to me at t186 with a decent easterly wind. Hope the ECM improves again tomorrow morning.

That’s an upgrade on the 850s mean

[ICE COLD]

It’s fair to say the para is a stonker.

[Jason M]

GFSP is slightly better. I think we are seeing a trend to mid lat heights though rather than HLB. Lots of variation between runs though so still lots to play for.

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

I don't know any model can be accurate 14 days out 

2nd week = 8th February = 10 days away, I'm not talking spot on accuracy rough mesoscale pattern...

[Scandinavian High.]

Wind chill next Saturday .

[Cavehill Snow]

I think the models have been really struggling this season - whether this is because of atypical forcing creating unusual synoptic patterns being forecast i'm not sure. The models have been thrashing around for a few weeks now each day offering several "new" solutions, none of which as yet have been sufficiently picked up across the suites for more than a few runs and developed on a consistent basis. I feel the longer this uncertainty continues, the less likely a more winter nirvana solution will be the final outcome. However high level blocking has been projected often enough the last few weeks that it is highly probable that some wintry weather will occur, nothing too extreme or long lasting, with northern areas more favoured as you would expect.

[Allseasons-Si]

The control run follows the gfs/p...at 192.

[Battleground Snow]

I've think we have learnt today that anything past 120 is up for grabs and not to hang on every OP run 

We have a weakening Nina, the MJO getting stuck in phase 6/7 and stratospheric developments still ongoing. Calling it either way at this juncture is brave/foolhardy.

The para is at 198 attached

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Wind chill next Saturday .

@knocker squirrel ? is gonna need a thick blanket to keep warm in that . (if we get it ) 

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

The control run follows the gfs/p...at 192.

I don’t think it does Si, look at the arctic high, it will cut off the cold like the ECM.  

[MJB]

Think I'd be happy with the whole 18z if it finished in that way

[Allseasons-Si]

The mean getting down to -8.7 here...

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Sweatyman]

5 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Wind chill next Saturday .

lovely stuff ❤

[Purga]

Yep, good enough end to GFS 18z in FI

Still cold with more fun and games to come - sleep well all

Edited January 29, 2021 by Purga

[Battleground Snow]

-8 breached on graph form on the mean

[feb1991blizzard]

I think based on current output we are definitely looking at some bone chillingly feeling weather in the 7-10 day range but maybe without much PPN.

[Allseasons-Si]

Scratch that,...-9 now with the op at -11 and the control going for -12.

Edited January 29, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Snowman.]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

I think based on current output we are definitely looking at some bone chillingly feeling weather in the 7-10 day range but maybe without much PPN.

Yeah seeing cold not PPN intense tho I wouldnt rule out a front pushing north through france.

 

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think based on current output we are definitely looking at some bone chillingly feeling weather in the 7-10 day range but maybe without much PPN.

You know how it goes mate get the cold in and the white stuff will follow

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think based on current output we are definitely looking at some bone chillingly feeling weather in the 7-10 day range but maybe without much PPN.

Middle of the day in any sunshine and light winds, should start to feel quite pleasant the further into Feb we go. Around Feb 15th the sun gets above the houses opposite and starts to warm the front of the house. 

That's why as you go through February, having a cold pool sat on top of us without snow falling is pretty pointless.

Edited January 29, 2021 by CreweCold

[TEITS]

No concern from me with regards to todays output. The key thing to remember is the atmosphere seems primed towards blocking around the Greenland/Iceland/Scandi region for the forseeable future. This combined with the time of year as Feb is generally the month when blocking is more likely to occur.

You will always see swings and roundabouts in the model output with regards to these situations. Im still going for the cold E,ly to arrive sooner than the output suggests as I feel the low pressure will sink S faster than currently modelled.

Just remember Dec 2009, 2010, Feb 2018 all had the ups and downs in the output with similiar posts to what I have read this evening!

[tight isobar]

I'll leave this here..temp plots..eps 12zgeos!!

[jacke]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Middle of the day in any sunshine and light winds, should start to feel quite pleasant the further into Feb we go. Around Feb 15th the sun gets above the houses opposite and starts to warm the front of the house. 

You simply love shooting everything down