Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Penicuikblizzard]

40 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

UKMO 144.

Not too bad.. downgrade yes. But not an ECM disaster.

Still a good chart for the North to be fair

[MJB]

11 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

The model is a horror show - full stop. Had the best solution last night to the worst this evening!

For the newbies on here , I will translate 

It's not as bad as dazzle makes out , cold is across the UK , just 50-100 miles adjustment south .........which is naff all then ALL in the UK would be laughing .

I detect some IMBYism from someone 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

150 miles further se with the shallow low at day 6 and it would have been the star this evening . As it is it’s a bit hair raising especially between day 5 and 6 .

For sure mate.

Its going to be hell waiting for this low to clear esp as time ticks down and folk are patiently waiting for snow!

Certainly if I lived in the NE I would be very excited,and nervy !!

 

[Mike Poole]

GFS // T120:

This looks to be clearing the low without any issues, and good alignment for advection of cold air from the NE with arctic high and atlantic high engaging nicely.  Good run this will be, I think.

[Cloud 10]

12z GFS ensemble mean 144hrs.

 

[Battleground Snow]

Something has to give soon here. OP slow to bring in the cold again.

Para looks good at 120, fills in the low. I do think the low may fill nearer the time... So many options at just 120 though! 

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, MJB said:

For the newbies on here , I will translate 

It's not as bad as dazzle makes out , cold is across the UK , just 50-100 miles adjustment south .........which is naff all then ALL in the UK would be laughing .

I detect some IMBYism from someone 

Its one of those situations where your location will massively skew your view of the 12z suite other than the 12z GFS.

Mos of the runs smack of good for cold and snow further north you go. The south much more iffy on this suite of runs, indeed the GEM is downright terrible for the south of England. Does give some snow for the Midlands before it turns to rain again as the warm air comes up, so not total disaster, but not far from it!

Flooding highly likely for the south if the 12z GEM came off, especially with more deep lows coming in post 240hrs.

Edited January 31, 2021 by kold weather

[KTtom]

To be fair, there is alot of what is called imby preferences as to whether a chart is good or bad, the title of the thread doesnt exactly help. The chances of a true BFTE in my opinion are low, however, the ukmo charts for 120 and 144 are blummin good if you want a significant fall of snow, pretty much anywhere.

[supernova]

All Easterly counties feeling more than a little raw next Sunday if those winds and uppers on the GFS Op come to pass. Would it be dry though? More than enough temperature differential for convective snow showers but one of our more knowledgable members will no doubt tell me whether that's very likely or not in those conditions. Precipitation chart suggests maybe so.

Edited January 31, 2021 by supernova

[northwestsnow]

It would appear, looking at GEFS that the vast majority do clear this low ..

Indeed, the slower ones do eventually bring in cold uppers.

Thats a big positive for me...

[Geordiesnow]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I actually prefer GEM over GFS. GEM has a potential slider low which will bring widespread snow to many. GFS (unlike 24hrs ago) is a cold dry easterly with only a bit of snow for the Far East.

I think the output is very subjective because I'm of the opposite view to yourself. Get the cold in ASAP and go from there, the more the trigger low faffs on over the UK, the more likely it will stall and there be no significant easterly. 

The issue I have with the easterly is yes it will be cold but we do need lower thicknesses otherwise convection could be capped. Lots to sort out before we get there though. 

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, MJB said:

For the newbies on here , I will translate 

It's not as bad as dazzle makes out , cold is across the UK , just 50-100 miles adjustment south .........which is naff all then ALL in the UK would be laughing .

I detect some IMBYism from someone 

In my defence, you can’t wonder at a little bit of “imbyism”, as it would be a huge kick in the teeth if the south got 2 solid days of cold rain!

But considering the amazing run it showed yesterday, it’s quite a change.

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Absolute mad evening run once again! Some places getting an absolute caking from a possible blizzard! 

Once again, it’s over to the ECM.

Anyone else been looking at that low? screaming “JUST SINK” 

Edited January 31, 2021 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[MJB]

Control is good 

Very good 

[nick sussex]

In these set ups people need to think outside  IMBYISM because a model showing an alleged snow event at day 7 or 8 for the north is already on dodgy foundations when it’s earlier struggled to get the cold south right through the UK.

The GEM is one tweak away for zip for the whole UK . Heights are already being shunted west .

 

 

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, MJB said:

For the newbies on here , I will translate 

It's not as bad as dazzle makes out , cold is across the UK , just 50-100 miles adjustment south .........which is naff all then ALL in the UK would be laughing .

I detect some IMBYism from someone 

And again, for newbies: the model-output has no influence whatsoever on what the weather does!

[Phil Blake]

3 minutes ago, supernova said:

All Easterly counties feeling more than a little raw next Sunday if those winds and uppers on the GFS Op come to pass. Would it be dry though? More than enough temperature differential for convective snow showers but one of our more knowledgable members will no doubt tell me whether that's likely or not in those conditions.

-12 should be more than enough for some decent convection. With the North sea around 6 or 7c currently 

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It would appear, looking at GEFS that the vast majority do clear this low ..

Indeed, the slower ones do eventually bring in cold uppers.

Thats a big positive for me...

Great ens..the spaghetti ones belly flopping.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

prefer it to 06Z, I think, great chart this! 06 had milder air soon after, EC key tonight, if it goes similar way again, feel it's curtains, GFS back down tomorrow

[MJB]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

In my defence, you can’t wonder at a little bit of “imbyism”, as it would be a huge kick in the teeth if the south got 2 solid days of cold rain!

But considering the amazing run it showed yesterday, it’s quite a change.

 

Yes I get that and there will be swings so far out 

[Geordiesnow]

2 minutes ago, supernova said:

All Easterly counties feeling more than a little raw next Sunday if those winds and uppers on the GFS Op come to pass. Would it be dry though? More than enough temperature differential for convective snow showers but one of our more knowledgable members will no doubt tell me whether that's likely or not in those conditions.

There be convection because of the cold air over 'warm' seas situation but as the PPN charts show, it will be more shallow convection because the instability won't be as low as it would be if thicknesses and pressure was lower. 

Just think of the last easterly we had, lots of showers but very small in nature and cloud tops quite flat so almost stratus cumulus type rather Cumonimbus type. 

[Phil Blake]

1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

There be convection because of the cold air over 'warm' seas situation but as the PPN charts show, it will be more shallow convection because the instability won't be as low as it would be if thicknesses and pressure was lower. 

Just think of the last easterly we had, lots of showers but very small in nature and cloud tops quite flat so almost stratus cumulus type rather Cumonimbus type. 

The last easterly brought almost constant heavy rain and hail in my location and that was uppers of -7 -8 with a sea temp about 8c. 

[ptow]

38 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Gfs @150...about where THE ukmo. would be should it run there..a sweep of polar continental airflow...into our shores anyone taking issues with suc h synops should consider taking up chess or some ####....inter flow engagement from the East in early Feb...and we have people sulking....drop me out!!!!

Isn’t that-4 850 in the south? Would that still be cold?

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

The GFS 12z operational run is one of the slowest to advect in the colder uppers in and the rest of the ensemble suite is still looking fantastic with a mean of -8C by the 7th February. Of course the operational run is run at a higher resolution and could be spotting a new trend, but I still don’t think the situation is as dire as some are making it out to be. The ECM 12z is obviously a crucial run this evening and I’d like to see some movement towards a more favourable evolution. Just my take anyway, and this could obviously still go either way.

 

Similar to 06z short ensembles. There’s certainly scope for quicker and deeper cold than the op 

[tight isobar]

Just now, ptow said:

Isn’t that-4 850 in the south? Would that still be cold?

Short answer  YES...