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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


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Posted
  • Location: Barnsley
  • Location: Barnsley

    My take on this with my very limited knowledge is that even thought the models have move EVER SO SLIGHTLY towards the ECM they are still amazing.  The low just about clear ESE rather than NE as the odd run has suggested. The bottom line is all that’s happened is it’s been delayed my maybe 12 hours or so.  All 3 models are on board and looks better to me long term.  Talks of downgrades are generally people on the wind up.  Must admit thought not having the ECM on board is a bit of a worry.  The ECM it generally on its own but cannot be ruled out as we are still 120 hrs away from the start of things and models are not at their best in this type of pattern BUT surly you have to go with the majority don’t we.  My gut feeling is that we will be cold but maybe not as cold as some runs are showing but concidering the cag we are used to, this year has been loads better.  To finish what do people thing wrt the face that less cars have been on the road with lockdowns so less poop going upstairs.  
     

     

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    Quick summary, GFS cold and snowy by 144 Para cold and snowy by 144 Ukmo cold and snowy by 144 Gem cold and snowy by 156 ECM cold and VERY snowy by 156.  

    OMG I love this post . Shows just what a weird but wonderful bunch coldies are ! Your post in a nutshell sums up just how much this means for cold and snow lovers . Bless you Mike . 

    Yes ! Low pressure finally developing over northern Italy . A biting east ne flow heavy snow showers driven much further inland . Lots of instability . Enjoy the snow UK coldies . Really gre

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    1 minute ago, Sweatyman said:

    thats the 6z !I 

    I slipped frames while downloading....I'm leaving it there tho..as the sister suite offers up the same..if not better .😋

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    6 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

    GEM is a horror show...

    Needs watching, so far for all the wrong reasons. 

    Might still get there? 

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    Just now, MJB said:

    GEM will end up delivering , just delayed 

    Yes I think your right, I actually think it may well give a decent snow event for Midlands north, but its still another shift in the short term (72-120hrs) towards the 00z ECM solution.

    We can't afford many more.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    5 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

    GEM is a horror show...

    The model is a horror show - full stop. Had the best solution last night to the worst this evening!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    Just now, Frosty Winter said:

    The GEFS 12z ensemble mean is still clearing the low far quicker than the operational run and has us in an easterly wind by t120.

    7D77F83B-23A4-4DF5-B048-5B8FE7F40B0C.png

    Yes, I’ve noticed that the means have tended to do this - suggests to me that the higher resolution of the ops runs is going to be needed to resolve this properly at such a short range.  I would view all the op runs as a super-ensemble here and for the moment the GEM/ECM 0z solution seems to be a bit of an outlier, but that could still change over the next day or so.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    1 minute ago, Griff said:

    Needs watching, so far for all the wrong reasons. 

    Might still get there? 

    Actually might be better later on.

    image.thumb.png.5c914784baf0823e00f7e4c4b8ff8158.png

    Heights have gone to Greenland rather than Scandi. Eitherway delays aren't what we want.

    Edited by Snowman.
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    Just now, Griff said:

    Needs watching, so far for all the wrong reasons. 

    GEM will pull through for the north.

    The south though might have to put up with another rain/flooding event first however on the 12z GEM.

    BTW very good GFS again, even if it also does shift a touch towards the poorer solution to start with, but there is some leeway still on the GFS solution.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

    The model is a horror show - full stop. Had the best solution last night to the worst this evening!

    Schrödinger's GEM? 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, kold weather said:

    GEM will pull through for the north.

    The south though might have to put up with another rain/flooding event first however on the 12z GEM.

    BTW very good GFS again, even if it also does shift a touch towards the poorer solution to start with, but there is some leeway still on the GFS solution.

    Very complex.

    We just don't want a repeat of EC Darren.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    18 minutes ago, Snowboard Tennyson IOW said:

    I agree, as things moderate this seems the normal pattern between models. What would a middle ground potentially look like though?

    Probably something like tonight’s UKMO ..

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    Posted
  • Location: Barnsley
  • Location: Barnsley

    The other thing is let’s see where the gfs sits in its ensembles.  Personally I always find these to be a very good guide when looking for a general pattern.  Have a feeling that it will be on the milder side but we will see.  Don’t mean an outlier just milder

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    4 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    The GEFS 12z ensemble mean is still clearing the low far quicker than the operational run and has us in an easterly wind by t120.

    7D77F83B-23A4-4DF5-B048-5B8FE7F40B0C.png

    100% I'm sure we'll have a surface engaged easterly import a bit earlier than the operational are suggesting....it's catch up all round for reasons [email protected] climatology...in part !

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Very complex.

    We just don't want a repeat of EC Darren.

    😁😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Very complex.

    We just don't want a repeat of EC Darren.

    The thing that is bothering me is I'm watching the evolution between 72-120hrs very closely and nearly all the 12z runs have moved somewhat towards the 00z/12z ECM from the last 2 runs of the ECM within that timeframe.

    Of course most still get there, but when you see all the models make subtle movements towards the ECM in that timeframe, its gotta cause alarm, because a trend at that range normally strengthens...and its a trend in the wrong direction. for example we cannot afford any further shifts NW of the low from the 12z UKMO or ICON otherwise its curtains for any easterly.

    ECM will hopefully move towards the other models, and we may end up seeing some sort of middle ground starting to emerge that means the north gets into the cold easterly flow whilst the polar boundary straddles the line somewhere between the north of England and France and exactly where it sits/distrubution of the low determines on the ground weather.

    GEM 12z is a big warning signal though that the ECM is not totally on its own in seeing the set-up between 72-120hrs develop as it does.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    The GEM faffs about with the UK limpet LP,but all roads leading to Rome it seems at the moment.🙂

     

    gemnh-0-162.thumb.png.db28ae168f987ead0cb6987ad3508136.png

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    I actually prefer GEM over GFS. GEM has a potential slider low which will bring widespread snow to many. GFS (unlike 24hrs ago) is a cold dry easterly with only a bit of snow for the Far East.

    971DC0AA-108B-4AF2-AC0C-2E2CE3A810A8.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Location: NW London
    6 hours ago, Doctor96 said:

    Guys how can we not like this  an easterly with snow , surely this is  the holy grail , but at the moment for northern half of uk . if you are in the north east this is something special viewimage.thumb.png.b8d7f5d37b93d1a2809a899beccc49a1.png

    that Chart would smash the Highlands 

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
    5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    It is vile, worse than 0z ECM, here T138:

    4BDE6B21-19F0-4FEB-8DA1-94578012936E.thumb.png.26dc4d7b034aa9ca7be99e8899d26a49.png

    Thing is, that envelope of uncertainty I spoke of earlier obviously does include this evolution, we just hope it doesn’t happen.  This may be the one bad model this set of runs, and the ECM may show better, just the way the cookie crumbles.

    As Kold said this shows how the phasing with the Atlantic low keeps the pattern further north.The UKMO at day 6 was close to doing this but just about get the cold in with the minimum of separation.

    GFS would be the desired choice for coldies by a mile but we all know there is no certainty even now how this will evolve by the weekend.

    I thinking even after the ECM we may need another 24hrs for the mists to clear on these lows.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Dont disagree with anything you said Darren...

    I would say a small move to EC on 12z but the real interest cold wise is 120 -144..

    I'm going to say EC will be better in that timeframe tonight ...

    We will see...

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    Just now, northwestsnow said:

    image.thumb.png.a7e30c434df9a290ce4974fd49bee1fd.png

    Ukmo looks primed !

    150 miles further se with the shallow low at day 6 and it would have been the star this evening . As it is it’s a bit hair raising especially between day 5 and 6 .

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    I actually prefer GEM over GFS. GEM has a potential slider low which will bring widespread snow to many. GFS (unlike 24hrs ago) is a cold dry easterly with only a bit of snow for the Far East.

    971DC0AA-108B-4AF2-AC0C-2E2CE3A810A8.png

    The big problem Tim with the GEM is the polar boundary never ever even sinks south enough for a chunk of the country.

    You'd have a slider low which for a fair chnuk of the country gives a wintry mix and maybe front edge transient snow until it hits the true colder air north of the Midlands.

    Get the cold in first...and the GEM fails at the very first hurdle.

    12z GEM is only better if you like flooding rains in the SW/S?

    Edited by kold weather
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