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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Rough snow-rain line from the UKMO.

This by the way is roughly where it would stay between 144-192hrs, though there will be some possible south/north motion along that rough line.

UKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.195cf48d9186a17189713f21dd197033.png

The LP in the atlantic would probably try and disrupt ESE along the boundary and that will hopefully eventually drag that snow line to the south, but it would take a while I'd think.

UKMO is not bad, but its a huge downgrade compared to the 00z.

Youve just extended the M4 westwards   Lol

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Rough snow-rain line from the UKMO.

This by the way is roughly where it would stay between 144-192hrs, though there will be some possible south/north motion along that rough line.

UKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.195cf48d9186a17189713f21dd197033.png

The LP in the atlantic would probably try and disrupt ESE along the boundary and that will hopefully eventually drag that snow line to the south, but it would take a while I'd think.

UKMO is not bad, but its a huge downgrade compared to the 00z.

HUGE ?? well it can't be as we didn't see a UK 168 , but i get what you are saying but it most definitely isn't a HUGE downgrade  

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Yeah..so about those 'downgrades'

image.thumb.png.f8e6b17a4a73428a05c4cc922ab9fdc0.png

image.thumb.png.dd209f22634b456e4c94555a8b062c87.png

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Unfortunately thats a classic north-south split again from what I can tell, with easterly into the north whilst the south has to make do with rain and marignal rubbish.

Exactly...more of the same, sadly for the south. Scotland is the place to be if that comes about.

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
3 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

never have understood why people watch the runs on meteociel if they were watching on wetterzentrale with its much better map projection they would see that the atlantic low is disrupting against the building high on the ukmo 144

Each to their own.. I prefer the meteociel

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

D7 is not far away and if we could I think we would bank that chart from the gfs:

85953773_gfseu-0-168(1).thumb.png.8027e4164511e411e2c1d84ea27f2ca6.png

gfseuw-2-174.thumb.png.f307efe6c51fef6a090be47833023757.pnggfseuw-1-174.thumb.png.f956ffe73cf184bf6085f5f248fd3518.png

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

If we get shifts South East on the UKMO it could be an actual beasterly.

Its a compromise but its not a wash out. Still in the game.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

I know it is nice to say that a model has moved to another, but here we are just seeing random solutions being picked out of the hat. The UKMO isn't too bad

image.thumb.png.b4e43a369f97adf5bfe1f16f6ec21ee9.png

Low pressure in the Atlantic going underneath the high with cold air ready to surge west into the Atlantic via the UK.

GFS
image.thumb.png.6e9a43a3eabfe2c06bf83add5b6769e1.png

Reverts to an older evolution  with that earlier system sinking towards Iberia.

Conclusion - Given the completely different ICON 06/12z, we have got nowhere nearer as to what will happen at the end of this week.

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Isle of Wight
18 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Very low. What will happen is GFS will move towards ECM and ECM will Move towards GFS and UKMO will probably be first to spot the middle ground. Might not be today or tomorrow but it will almost definitely happen ..

I agree, as things moderate this seems the normal pattern between models. What would a middle ground potentially look like though?

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

image.thumb.png.c6b8c6bfb2a30debfde646e08c600bd7.png

image.thumb.png.747a9e752a3632f5043b365819ec344b.png

No complaints 

Edited by MJB
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

The GFS 12z looks fantastic to me. I’ll take this any day of the week!

AEFD768F-E51E-4303-8AF5-B26E9E33B2AD.thumb.png.8378ad4ac565b43ba4b4f29afc2083d0.pngE7C20735-97EC-42B9-A4CF-EA02F24C6D40.thumb.png.bd63d429215cac389fca26d4603f789f.pngD9EFC7DD-5D86-464F-953D-DFDF090CBB59.thumb.png.c9c635cba12f029cd8baa9e249d0b295.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Ukmo looks fine to me!!!yeh not as good as this morning but still really good!!gfs fantastic!!!

Ukmo is lovely mate.

As is icon and GFS...

We may have to accept the low takes a bit longer than desired to clear however...

 

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
11 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Anyone who says the ukmo 12 z isn't great needs there eyes testing!  Looks bloody good to me.

UKMOPEU12_144_1 (1).png

It’s not great for the South & SE, for rest of U.K. it’s fine, providing it doesn’t move further to ECM tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

GEM 12z again just a subtle motion towards the 00z ECM solution.

GEMOPEU12_102_1.thumb.png.c07af03e429c67ff919af35d2acea5f1.png

Lower thicknesses in the area circled on the 12z run compared to the 00z which means we are at a higher risk of the LP sitting further north as per the 00z ECM which also features similar areas of slightly lower pressure.

Hopefully we will still get away with it but the trend in the short term is going to an ever more marginal evolution here.

Could really afford the ECM to swing back the other way on its 12z run just to build a little confidence again.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Arctic high at d9 has done a u-turn and now returned to the axis we want to keep that cold coming from the Asian vortex:

gfsnh-0-186.thumb.png.12e311a12c682ed109d21ce584e1d6e0.png gfsnh-1-192.thumb.png.aa6cdc886e03ff1e69423bdbf4ba9545.png

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
2 minutes ago, MJB said:

image.thumb.png.c6b8c6bfb2a30debfde646e08c600bd7.png

image.thumb.png.747a9e752a3632f5043b365819ec344b.png

Now complaints 

And -8s will do just nicely thank you.

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