Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Scandinavian High.]

So as folks have said a move towards ecm. And Watch ecm later come out with a snow fest .

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

We hear patience needed a lot each winter ... but as we head into the last month of winter patience begins to wear thin! I make this comment solely on behalf of those in the south. Because it's looking good for the north on the last few runs of GFS at least with deep cold and likely plenty of snow showers off the North Sea. But even this is not guaranteed yet, as EC det is still yet to show this.

Its borderline poor for this part of the country Nick.

We do just about make it into an easterly after lots of rain, but the wind direction is a little too ESE even then so we we end up dry and cold for a few days, followed by a quick breakdown from the south which looks like the type that would be a sleety mess followed by rain eventually.

It really is a run of two halves. Amazing for the north, but really rather meh for the south, and as I said, borderline poor.

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Please please ukmo be correct!!!!!

Very unlikely I think. If it was showing the worst outcome. I’d be more confident of it.

It’s evolution looks far too clean.

Still another 28 days of winter left - don’t panic!

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Djdazzle

[Battleground Snow]

Para looking good at 108, should sink the low faster than the OP (better for the south)

 

 

[Penicuikblizzard]

24 minutes ago, MJB said:

ECM 120

GFS 120

Very alike in terms of this pesky LP

As expected the GFS is starting to move in the same direction as the ECM you’ll probably find the other models will slowly follow suit and find some middle ground,,,the cold spell is looking like it could be a short one 

[Singularity]

That GFS 06z outcome is a whisker away from dumping a lot of snow across much of the southeast too - it just brings in air maybe a degree too warm from the southeast.

Not that such detail is worth worrying about with such a wide range of outcomes on the table for the preceding two days.

I don’t like that GFS now has a distinctly separate low from the Euro trough for a time - that’s the step into the ECM camp. On the other hand, the HLB behaves itself much better than on the ECM 00z so we see how the very cold air could still find a way in for most or all of the UK.

[Captain Shortwave]

Referring to my earlier post. This is the GFS.

 

Jet stream going north east just east of Greenland. It is not heading east towards the UK. So the GFS isn’t really moving towards the ECM, it has however produced a similar solution to the last few GFS(p) runs where the low crosses the U.K. and develops within that cold air exiting Scandinavia. This could turn out well for all, or just the north depending on the track. The operational and parallel look very similar at this timeframe as the 06z parallel comes out.

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Please please ukmo be correct!!!!!

GFS not snowy enough in Leicester Apart from the south east everyone should be happy with this outcome!

[Vikos]

Lets get dizzy

00z vs 06z

Don't take anything serious

Wobble Wobble

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

As expected the GFS is starting to move in the same direction as the ECM you’ll probably find the other models will slowly follow suit and find some middle ground,,,the cold spell is looking like it could be a short one 

To be boring I will post again 

Meteociel - Diagrammes ECMWF/CEP

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

You expect the extreme outlier to be correct ? Just asking as the ECM OP had no support in its own suite later on 

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Singularity said:

That GFS 06z outcome is a whisker away from dumping a lot of snow across much of the southeast too - it just brings in air maybe a degree too warm from the southeast.

Something that has been pretty consistent with the GFS in recent days is the idea that there will be a stalled frontal boundary somewhere. Its shifted about somewhat over previous runs from north France on the 12z to where it is on the 06z (most north its been).

Still verbatim, the 06z is not a great run for the south, a brief easterly that maybe too far south based to gain any streamers, then a brief wet snow front edge event into more rain.

I hate the 06z from a purely selfish IMBY position, however there is still a decent evolution in there despite a real rocky spell between 96-120hrs.

Flooding would be a real risk from the 06z GFS for the south in particular with alot of rain, and then further north as snow melts around 240-300hrs as the warm front pushes up.

Edited January 31, 2021 by kold weather

[Matt H]

The GEFS 06z control run and ensemble mean both sink the low quicker and have the UK in an easterly wind by t126!

Control run:

Ensemble mean:

Edited January 31, 2021 by Frosty Winter

[ALL ABOARD]

Mean at 120 

Cleared the low lovely..  

Control also similar. 

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

The GEFS 06z control run and the ensemble mean sink the low quicker out to t126 and have the UK in an easterly wind by t126!

Control:

Ensemble mean:

And the para does too. This is tense stuff haha.

[Methuselah]

At T+234, suggestions that @tight isobar's 'fly in the ointment', what I've been calling an 'elephant in the room' (the possibly northward advection of warmer air from the Med) might become a 'pain in the backside' isn't about to go away? That said, the 06Z does seem to over-egg such things?

    

I'll no' be slicing open my femoral artery, based on just  run, though!

Edited January 31, 2021 by General Cluster

[Notty]

2 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

The GEFS 06z control run and the ensemble mean sink the low quicker out to t126 and have the UK in an easterly wind by t126!

Control:

Ensemble mean:

Para doesn't though

[That ECM]

So did the gfs 06z end up like ecm? Did the low at t80ish go nne? Did it stop building heights north? 1/2 way house would be fine imo. Onto the 12z’s but still good in my book. That’s not from a imby position as this detail is miles away.

[IDO]

By d10 we can see that the pattern the ecm op represents is not what we want. Although the ecm has explosive cyclogenesis, unlikely to be correct, sadly even the moderated gfs shows a westerly based blocking from a Greenland high/wedge:

I think that we need to avoid that low over the UK at d5 to have a chance of a more sustained cold spell?

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, Notty said:

Para doesn't though

It does it's just not as fast as the control

[Chasbrown]

11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFS not snowy enough in Leicester Apart from the south east everyone should be happy with this outcome!

That means that the majority of the population will be unhappy! 

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

At T+234, suggestions that @tight isobar's 'fly in the ointment', what I've been calling an 'elephant in the room' (the possibly northward advection of warmer air from the Med) might become a 'pain in the backside' isn't about to go away? That said, the 06Z does seem to over-egg such things?

    

I'll no' be slicing open my femoral artery, based on just  run, though!

Yeah the 06z GFS ensembles certainly show that is a risk for the south.

Real high risk = high reward type set-up though.

If you end up on the northern part of that boundary, you'd get huge snowfalls. Your talking 20-40cms probably. We saw in Spain a few weeks ago what happens when usch a boundary sets up and runs W-E. Its the north that gets it this on the OP.

Many subtle solutions on the 06z which make a huge difference for the south in particular. The north looks more comfortable, though a risk there that HP may end up too close on some runs.

[Lampostwatcher]

1 minute ago, Chasbrown said:

That means that the majority of the population will be unhappy! 

It's only a short drive up north

[Matt H]

The ensemble mean out to t150 is fantastic!

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

The ensemble mean out to t150 is fantastic!

Yes..Op on the mild side

[MJB]

Nothing wrong with the Para