Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Man what a divisive run this will be!

TERRIBLE run for the south. Lots of rain moving through and the cold remains just too far north. At least through 180hrs. It may still get there *eventually*

GREAT run for the north. the NE in particular exposed to a good easterly airflow with a constant frontal boundary  just sitting dumping snow.

How you view this run is going to be very IMBY.

 

Well to me, this looks amazing! no deep cold, but looks snowy with cold air around the lows, better than a potentially dry E'ly with the high too close to the north

[sheikhy]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Perhaps the ‘meeting in the middle ‘ we should expect is the low parking over the centre of the UK? Still drives snow showers in from the east? ...

As you mention a middle ground most probably seen it happen plenty of times!!!but a defo move towards ecm mate!!!its gota stop the move there though or it could end ugly later on!

[Icebox]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

So we have an excuse this winter .... what about the previous twenty on here ! 

No excuse for those or the next 20... back to the now. My money is on the ECM being correct out to day 5 after that... who knows.

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

@kold weather I think it's not too bad for the south really?

It'll get there in the end but not after the north gets a dumping of snow and we get considerable rain! Eventually the flow does flatten into a mean easterly...however it takes such a long time that any fly in the ointment will kill it off dead, and we've seen that countless times before.

Huge snow event for the north though on the 06z GFS!

 

[Jason M]

Rain for the far SE as per usual. you just know this run will be correct. 

[MJB]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Move towards ecm im afraid!!now what one must remember on here is this could be the typical slow backtrack towards ecm!!!!this run is just about okay because of a stronger ridge between 120 and 144 hours but if ecm is correct then the gfs shall slowly erode that in the next few runs to the point where it will look exactly like the ecm!!please guys dont ignore these changes on the 06z just because it something you dont wana accept!!!

But you are ignoring the fact that ECM went off on a HUGE outlier 

Meteociel - Diagrammes ECMWF/CEP

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

 

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Based on this run .........

Based on a few actually.  

The positioning of the UK low around the border means snow to the North of it and rain to the South.

[Djdazzle]

It’s not a case of one model moving towards another - it’s such misleading statement. If you look carefully, the models converge little by little on a solution.

However, a cold sustained easterly looks highly unlikely. Not that it ever looked likely in the first place.

[jayb1989]

ECM Op show an alternative solution. Might well be an outlier but will be very pleasent and spring like if it were to come off. The daffs will be out i no time.

Edited January 31, 2021 by jayb1989

[Vikos]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

If this is the compromise I’ll take it

Have you EVER reviewed one of those charts because you keep posting those total accumulation charts constantly? What's the probability of occurrence? Any details on that? TIA

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Well to me, this looks amazing! no deep cold, but looks snowy with cold air around the lows, better than a potentially dry E'ly with the high too close to the north

I just fear the south in particular may get trapped up the upper trough. Seen it happen before in such solutions.

The 06z GFS ends up great for ALL in the end but my god is it a struggle for us down here in the south.

Besides, I don't fancy getting tons of rain whilst you guys up north have a foot of snow! Just personal IMO there!

One of the snowiest runs for the NE I've ever seen btw!

Edited January 31, 2021 by kold weather

[sheikhy]

Just now, MJB said:

But you are ignoring the fact that ECM went off on a HUGE outlier 

Meteociel - Diagrammes ECMWF/CEP

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

 

Was an outlier for defo mate!!!!but when it keeps happening and then we see these slow changes towards ecm its not a good thing!!!it might have picked up something that the ensembles aint pickin on!!!big 12zs later buddy!

[Doctor96]

Guys how can we not like this  an easterly with snow , surely this is  the holy grail , but at the moment for northern half of uk . if you are in the north east this is something special 

[MJB]

We can't grumble at that surely

[tight isobar]

Gfs...gets there...and in style too..real flow there now..and the snow machine is turned up to the max....!!!!

[JoeShmoe]

8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The East coast of Scotland looks like getting buried next week, over here in NI, cold rain and more flooding.

 

yep, great looking run for the NE of the UK ...

[Climate Man]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

It'll get there in the end but not after the north gets a dumping of snow and we get considerable rain! Eventually the flow does flatten into a mean easterly...however it takes such a long time that any fly in the ointment will kill it off dead, and we've seen that countless times before.

Huge snow event for the north though on the 06z GFS!

 

You ate quite correct but boundary could easily move several hundred miles,  hopefully south, in either direction. 

[Nick F]

We hear patience needed a lot each winter ... but as we head into the last month of winter patience begins to wear thin! I make this comment solely on behalf of those in the south. Because it's looking good for the north on the last few runs of GFS at least with deep cold and likely plenty of snow showers off the North Sea. But even this is not guaranteed yet, as EC det is still yet to show this.

[ICE COLD]

If we don’t get the first bite of the cherry let’s try for the second bite

[damianslaw]

I didn't comment on the models yesterday as there was far too much volatility, alas that theme continues this morning, and as yesterday as I say let things roll out through the weekend.. 

Crucial timeframe appears to be about 96hrs which is short, even at 72hrs we have a different profile between ECM and UKMO which is unusual. ECM pushing the low further north and more N-S elongated, UKMO keeps it slightly further south and more w-e elongated, subtle differences but important.

GFS swinging towards ECM at this timeframe, but then marked differences 144hr timeframe onwards, with the strong height development to the north.

I'm puzzled by ECM we have a southerly tracking jet, where it is buying the idea of azores heights ridging through into France and SW flow, with heights to the north as well, well mmmm very suspect..

Lets see what this evening's runs show.

Edited January 31, 2021 by damianslaw

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Well to me, this looks amazing! no deep cold, but looks snowy with cold air around the lows, better than a potentially dry E'ly with the high too close to the north

Better than a more deeply cold but drier easterly for snow lovers across most of the U.K. It’s the more ‘marginal’ conditions that often deliver more snow for large parts of the U.K.  Not great for the south. Such detail academic at this range though.

[sunnijim]

6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

So this run looks poor for the south, ok for the north post 144hrs.

Eventually the cold is going to filter through the whole country, but my word its taking a long time for the south to join in!

Hard to deny a move towards ECM at 96hrs though. And thats the really key timeframe here. 

Certainly would tie in with the thoughts of the pros in my opinion.

I deduced from recent updates that although much of the uk would be in the freezer over the weekend,it would take longer for the South to join the party...but join it does after next weekend ( although the SW would be prone to somthing milder at times with rain and snow being mentioned..

Could be the slow removal of the 'nowhere to go Low' causing this as it is struggling to get clear of the UK.

It is probably this feature that is playing havoc with the ECM, the feeling seems to be the usual middle ground solution,yes it will clear South but not as quickly as ukmo/gfs have advertised and not as slowly as ECM would have us believe.

[MJB]

Now going to see what the Para and Control do , then look at the ENS.

No complaints from me on the 6z 

[sheikhy]

Please please ukmo be correct!!!!!

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

As you mention a middle ground most probably seen it happen plenty of times!!!but a defo move towards ecm mate!!!its gota stop the move there though or it could end ugly later on!

Yes, the GFS has moved a bit towards ECM and later I expect the ECM to move towards GFS and so on and so fourth. All the models will be different in a few days and will show the middle ground.   If I was in the far south I’d be concerned that this low isn’t going to sink far enough south to bring in the cool easterly. If I was in the north i’d be very happy with the expected middle ground..