Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[MJB]

1 hour ago, supernova said:

Still have nightmares about that particular countdown @That ECM. What a flip! And I’d told the kids to ready their sledges (lesson duly learned, this time I’m polishing the runners in secret!).

That's the date , I was trying to remember that last night , it was a HUGE flip 

[Radiating Dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Drifter said:

I’m intrigued why you’re not keen on the UKMO run

He is a man looking for perfection. Personally I'm happy with a few wobbly bits if it still delivers the goods  

[minus86BriJ]

I’d like give a quick random thumbs up to the mods if I may.  As a long term reader only I’m finding the model discussion thread over the past few weeks a much more palatable feast of michelin star posts without the side order of blue cheesy trolling snipes. Great job, well done.  Nuff said

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Extended clusters dont offer much of cold or UK/IE looking at anomalies. Things can change and who knows what more shortwave drama is going to happen, I thing judging by recent trends odds are the cold will arrive just in time for March as per recent years :))

 

Timing fits downwelling waves

20 jan. ......bit meh compared to what we expected from fi nwp

6/13 feb ......still hopeful but could be even worse than the above 

23/end feb ..... same timing and third bite at the cherry .....

two to four week separations on those waves used to be accepted guidance ......

 

[Tim Bland]

A good old ECM Vs UKMO fight eh Where’s your money  
I’ll give 3-1 on ECM and 1-4 on UKMO 

before Tuesday’s Rain preceded by snow there is a chance of some light snow in Wales and the south this afternoon and tomorrow..

[daz_4]

16 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Extended clusters dont offer much of cold or UK/IE looking at anomalies. Things can change and who knows what more shortwave drama is going to happen, I thing judging by recent trends odds are the cold will arrive just in time for March as per recent years :))

Wondering how this will shake up in our neck of the woods. GEFS are pretty crazy from day 5 but this is probably the last chance for something significant here. If this fails I'm ready for spring. 

 

[snowking]

52 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

looking at day 5 shows the ec is very much not isolated. The day 6 chart looks different!  The issue is in that time period - of course the charts at day 4 will impact on how ec deals with the low.  But simply stating that it’s ec v the rest is a little simplistic.  the crucial period is days 5/7 and we know which model is nearly always best in that timeframe .....

The only good thing here is that ec doesn’t drop a scenario bit by bit like gfs but just drops it completely. So we could be out of the woods in twelve hours......

 or we could be deeper into the forest ......

Indeed. One has to hope this is a monumental failure from the ECM det. But there comes a time when Op run after Op run keeps the same theme at such short range (relatively) that you have to wonder whether it’s resolving something it’s lower resolution ensemble suite simply isn’t able to resolve with any real conviction.

As for the UKMO, brilliant output, but I think the memories of some are too short here given how much we have seen it flap about this winter season.

At day 4/5 you really want to see the Op runs from major suites aligned, otherwise we usually end up with a middle ground solution, which would be rather disappointing in this instance.

[Anthony Burden]

ECM lost in never never land once again following operation outlier,

still others GFS GEM working hard to try and fathom correct Synoptics for about

a week or so time.Still lots to work on plus changes to come in next 24 hrs.

[Penicuikblizzard]

34 minutes ago, supernova said:

In fact the opposite of Dec 12 when the ECM in particular had counted down a potent Easterly only to scupper all chances at the last minute. This time the ECM has been reluctant throughout which is why so many have probably still got the jitters because it remains one of the better models in the crucial 5-6 day timeframe. Not sure which scenario I prefer tbh, ECM fully onboard only to kill us dead at the finish or vaguely indifferent only to delight us nearer the time?! For those in any doubt, let me remind you...

5th Dec 2012 looking out 192 hrs on the 12z as the BFTE roars in...

One run later, the roar still looks primed, then 12z on the 6th, 96hrs still looking good...

Even closer on the 0z with no dramas and then 72hrs on the 12z, when woollen layers and insulated boots were being hastily prepared...

Until the worst u-turn in ECM history destroyed the hearts and souls of a cold-loving nation not 12 hours later as the low slipped east, high pressure drifted across the UK and fathers across the nation had to tell their children that Santa wasn’t real after all...

Proves you cannot discount what the ECM is showing now,,,could start to see other models back track from the Easterly scenario over the next day or so 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Timing fits downwelling waves

20 jan. ......bit meh compared to what we expected from fi nwp

6/13 feb ......still hopeful but could be even worse than the above 

23/end feb ..... same timing and third bite at the cherry .....

two to four week separations on those waves used to be accepted guidance ......

 

The weather continues to make mugs out of everyone I'm afraid. 

There's litterely know point in looking at anything past 5 days other than a laugh. 

This winter has had so much promise. Yet in reality it's consisted of marginal snow events, and pre warnings of snow only to be lifted nearer the time. 

Any real cold ends up not reaching us. And the wkend now looking less likely by the day 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[kold weather]

Ok so there is a slight worry now for me personally.

The 00z suite very definately has shifted towards the ECM on one VERY key area, and that is the cutoff low.

They were clearing it south by Friday on the 12z suites yesterday, but nearly all models are now taking even longer to kick it sourh

We are still ok in the UK on most of them because it ends up far enough SW that the mean flow shifts easterly anyway over the UK. However should the LP end up nearer the UK as per ECM 00z then that will ruin any cold spell attempt.

I'd say today despite what the post 144hrs differences are, there is a clear shift towards the ECM solution closer in and if that trend continues future models may show quite a drastic shift at some point towards it.

Edited January 31, 2021 by kold weather

[sheikhy]

If gfs and ukmo stay the same expect the ecm (king) to improve this evening!!!!IF IT DOESNT AND THE OTHER TWO DOWNGRADE i really expect a torrid evening on this thread!!!

Edited January 31, 2021 by sheikhy

[northwestsnow]

If the EC does a 6z that would reveal more?

[SLEETY]

34 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

6z is a behind the sofa job for me..

 

LOL more scary then Watching DR who,soo much drama.I would say if the UKMO is the same in 12 hours hours then its game on for this cold spell.It normally backtracks straight away the next run if it has got it wrong previously.

So its more behind the sofa job for this afternoons  UKMO for me.If it moves towards ECM game over stays the same the cold is INCOMING

 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

If gfs and ukmo stay the same expect the ecm to improve this evening!!!!IF IT DOESNT AND THE OTHER TWO DOWNGRADE i really expect a torrid evening on this thread!!!

If EC is right i won't be logging on.

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM this morning does give a credible reason for its output, essentially the cold air to our north east and cold pooling over Greenland remained linked together despite the height rises to our north. The allows the west to east jet stream to continue instead of this being blocked across the Atlantic.

ICON 06z

ECM for the same time

You would think that the Atlantic ridge would be able to push north/north east enough to break this link up, especially with potential forcing from the other side of the Arctic. It is this that needs to go, break that link and the remain low heights will clear away from the U.K. to allow a proper spell of cold weather.

Edited January 31, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[TSNWK]

06z gfs under intense scrutiny this morning.. usually the poor relation.

buckle down..

[Alexis]

I'm looking forward to the second European U turn of the week...

[northwestsnow]

6z slightly colder than its 00z run at 120..

Icon..

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by northwestsnow

[Liam J]

Not liking the look of the 6z Icon. 
Looking more like the ECM! 

More energy putting pressure on the Atlantic ridge. 

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If EC is right i won't be logging on.

Agreed.. there has been terrific contributions recently.. I’ll let the dust settle and then hopefully there would be some considered learnings

[kold weather]

ICON has definitely shifted towards the ECM.

However that isn't hugely surprising for those of us who remember its previous incarnation the DWD usually followed the ECM step for step, right or wrong.

I remember it being called Tony Blair of models at one point, due to the way it followed the bigger model like a poodle!

Still the models have moved towards the worse solution IMO this morning closer to the time, it is what it is!

Edited January 31, 2021 by kold weather

[bluearmy]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If the EC does a 6z that would reveal more?

Op Stops at T90

[Tim Bland]

This circulating on Twitter is interesting.. 

Posters surmise that since Tuesday the ECM error has been decreasing, while the others have been increasing.  My view of it is that ECM (whilst improving) is still not doing as well as the others...most importantly UKMO   

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It’s all about upstream.  Labrador to Hudson Bay. ECM has been allowing the developing GHP to leak/ridge down there when the trough ejects east, which then sees that trough join and enforce the trough between Greenland and Iceland.

slight positive is ECM has edged towards the others a touch around the t96 area but not enough to force that easterly flow South enough to flood the UK.

06z will imo mean diddly....the 12z will be more revealing imo

 

BFTP