Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Panayiotis]

41 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Excellent v excellent I would say

This is the sort of pattern I expect from our SSW. Glad we are finally seeing it down well into the trop 

[Continental Climate]

I know I shouldn't do it but my prediction is for a much improved ECM especially as the UKMO has the easterlies in place by 96. The UKMO can't be wrong at that range. 

 

Edit

It is improved from the 12z but nowhere near as good as UKMO 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Continental Climate

[James Maidstone]

1 hour ago, Stu_London said:

a number of ice days in the mix too

Where?

[carinthian]

Best chart of the winter season so far from UKMO this morning. Locks in some real cold air over Northern Europe including all of the British Isles.

C

[Battleground Snow]

Ecm at 120, not as good as Ukmo, but another improvement on yesterday

 

 

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[feb1991blizzard]

All going wrong on the ECM again, btw ukmo not all that IMO.

[mulzy]

ECM still says no at days 5-6.  Wow!

ECM / ICON vs the rest.  Will it be decided tonight? - probably not!

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

All going wrong on the ECM again, btw ukmo not all that IMO.

I think the 168 chart will be very good and like the gem, look at  the descending Arctic high, it should link up with scandi

[Battleground Snow]

168 is not great either tbh.

Another outlier? I hope so

 

[Weather-history]

35 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

 

It is improved from the 12z but nowhere near as good as UKMO 

 

15 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Ecm at 120, not as good as Ukmo, but another improvement on yesterday

 

Looks worse to me or no better than the last op run. Infact it is going down the route of the last op run at least regards to no easterly flow.

Edited January 31, 2021 by Weather-history

[carinthian]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

All going wrong on the ECM again, btw ukmo not all that IMO.

ECM runs continue to push away the cold block over the British Isles rather quickly in less than 48 hours. I think maybe be a bit too advanced at that period. Its input data must be so different to the other main models that early in its run. Its a very powerful computer that must never be underestimated but like others can get it wrong and eventually latch on to a flip. f

 

c

 

[Ali1977]

10 minutes ago, mulzy said:

ECM still says no at days 5-6.  Wow!

ECM / ICON vs the rest.  Will it be decided tonight? - probably not!

If it’s not a complete outlier within the ENS by next Fri we best be a little cautious ref the UKMO and GFS, if it is on the high side of the ENS and the next GFS sticks to its guns I hope a big back track this evening!! Let’s see what the ECM ENS say!!

[Stu_London]

Typical model jump around

UKMO improves

GFS is underwhelming after a reasonable positive 18z

ECM - sticks to minimising any cold set up. 

ECM is being consistent, which is a huge concern for the any cold spell and its longevity - because ECM is not buying in at all. 

[Kentspur]

Pass me the sick bucket horrific ECM 0z. Who's for long fetch southwesterlies? No marginality there!

[Continental Climate]

12 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

168 is not great either tbh.

Another outlier? I hope so

 

Don't like the look of that at all. No easterly flow. We need the ECM on board and quickly. 

[JoeShmoe]

1 minute ago, Stu_London said:

Typical model jump around

UKMO improves

GFS is underwhelming after a reasonable positive 18z

ECM - sticks to minimising any cold set up. 

ECM is being consistent, which is a huge concern for the any cold spell and its longevity - because ECM is not buying in at all. 

Add icon to that and 3 of 4 models aren’t really buying into a really good cold spell which is probably telling tbh. Still time for change but ... 

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

Pass me the sick bucket horrific ECM 0z. Who's for long fetch southwesterlies? No marginality there!

The met office long range is going to be have to be rewritten today, if this is anywhere near correct

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

Pass me the sick bucket horrific ECM 0z. Who's for long fetch southwesterlies? No marginality there!

to be fair its not that different to the GFS - timings are a bit different but deep low in atlantic bring mild - holding the block at bay - very much the same theme

[The Beast From The East]

2 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Pass me the sick bucket horrific ECM 0z. Who's for long fetch southwesterlies? No marginality there!

And we all know from past experience that the model that shows the milder option always managed to be the one that is nearer the mark unfortunately

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, JoeShmoe said:

Add icon to that and 3 of 4 models aren’t really buying into a really good cold spell which is probably telling tbh. Still time for change but ... 

I've seen before the UKMO take a positive turn only to find itself the odd one out. Usually if falls back in line pretty swift if that happens. 

Oh well, after the euphoria of 18z GFS para, this is definitely a step in the wrong direction. On the plus side, there might be some snow events still - the GFS has a decent one for the south next Sunday / Monday, and the building blocks for a significant cold spell from the east remain in place, even if its just proves to be just out or reach for some of the current modelling

[Kentspur]

Someone yesterday mentioned Feb 2019 models.looked good for an Easterly.only to back track then boom 21c down south! Are we seeing signs of a repeat here... why have -8c uppers whn you can have +8c

Edited January 31, 2021 by Kentspur

[doctormog]

10 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Typical model jump around

UKMO improves

GFS is underwhelming after a reasonable positive 18z

ECM - sticks to minimising any cold set up. 

ECM is being consistent, which is a huge concern for the any cold spell and its longevity - because ECM is not buying in at all. 

Re. Your last point, the ECM op runs have been a very long way from being consistent.

[Continental Climate]

If the UKMO does climb down this evening and southwesterlies start to become modelled then it's going to be a kick in the teeth for our winter prospects as a whole. February is on a knife edge now. 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Continental Climate

[Kentspur]

1 minute ago, Continental Climate said:

If the UKMO does climb down this evening and southwesterlies start to become modelled then it's going to be a kick in the teeth for our winter prospects as a whole. 

Yes and whichever way this goes atleast one models going to have egg over its face massively! ECM vs UKMO 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

96 hour mark is of significant importance on where that stubborn limpet low West of Ireland ends up. Hoping we see it correct south. That is what is making the models end up with some very different results post 192hrs.